Heads Up People: McCain will tie and/or pull ahead next week.

[Dbdmjs1022]

It's called a convention bounce, and it's going to happen. This has been a good week for the Rethugs. We can't doubt that, and we shouldn't crap ourselves worrying about it right now. We had our moment, and they have theirs. The polls will swing to McCain, perhaps through all of next week. But it's not something to panic about. The polls will swing again after the debates, and they'll continue to swing all the way through election day. We need to focus our energy on the important things: turn out, GOTV, donating. If we waste our time bitching about polls, we WILL lose. This election is ours to win or lose, and having a heart attack over the fact that people in this country are going to vote for McSame and keep this close isn't going to help.

[gratefultobelib]

Surely not after that speech.

[Dbdmjs1022]

2. Yes, after that post. It clicked with people, as hard as it is to believe.

We know it's bullshit, but it WILL resonate with some Americans.

[quiet.american]

1. Data received and affirmed. Seriously, good post. Thanks. nt

[villager]

3. The MSM is certainly desperate to push McCain ahead...

n/t

[Kdillard]

4. You are right there are more important things to worry about .

[Jennicut]

5. Who cares? As long as Obama is winning in the state polls, who really cares?

The tracking poll is meaningless even though it is entertaining. This was one dull crapfest of a convention with a lot of mean spirited snarkiness thrown in for good measure. Obama was inspirational and transcendent. McCain won't have a tie for long...or even really a lead.

[qazplm]

6. next week?

Saturday, if not tomorrow.

[TheKentuckian]

8. I'm going against convention

and saying negative bump for the GOP.

The corporate media will try to push this mess along but I don't see where they make enough hay to move the numbers.

I'll eat the crow on this one or go into a Joker grin.

I'm mentally prepared for the obvious opposite but I think they made little progress outside of the GOP and may have chased many away.

[AtomicKitten]

7. No way ... McAsshole won't even pull even.

[Beregond2]

9. I doubt it.

I'll be surprised if he gets any bump at all. But you are correct; if he does, it doesn't matter.

[the Sundance Kid]

10. sure he will, Nostradamus

[Dbdmjs1022]

11. He's gonna get a convention bounce. Thinking otherwise is just setting yourself for a letdown.

[HughMoran]

12. So what

Everybody knows that - duh

[Dbdmjs1022]

13. Judging from some thread responses, some people apparently don't.I'm just trying to curb the 'PANIC'

[HughMoran]

18. Panic is all the rage these days

1/3 of all posts in GD : P are about Palin - as if McCain didn't even speak last night. Bizarro world for sure.

[Claire Beth]

14. You are correct...we

have to keep donating and fighting the good fight.

[cynatnite]

15. He might pull ahead a little, but I don't think he'll be able to maintain it...

In 04 Kerry and Bush stayed about the same throughout most of the race despite the debates. Kerry beat Bush easily in those.

Personally, I think McCain's numbers will drop 3-5 points in the next couple of weeks.

[Sensitivity]

16. Any major Dem announcement/event expected today?? Only think that could change normal bounce.

[JoshDem]

17. Right you are.

We had a good convention--they had a great convention.

They are likely to be up 2-3 points following the weekend.

Toss-up race with many more developments to come.

[debbierlus]

19. I will go out on a limb and say that he will be DOWN due to Cruella...

Just my humble opinion...

The fact that they are HIDING, yes HIDING, Sarah Palin...it is a HUGE indicator that their Hail Mary Pass crashed into a wall.

They have the numbers, and if they thought this freak show helped them, she would be EVERYWHERE. She is a net liability and this week was ALL about Ms Palin, the new Katherine Harris of 08.

They are in DAMAGE CONTROL after the convention this week. And, next week, the National Enquirer is breaking a big story on a extramarital affair.

This convention was AWFUL. REALLY, REALLY BAD.

[QueenOfCalifornia]

20. I didn't know

it had a name.

But I do expect the gas bag to pull ahead until the debates :)

edit to fix really lame typo

[EstimatedProphet]

21. Agreed. They'll get a bounce.

But that doesn't mean it's over, not by a long shot.

[thenam]

22. Convention bounces are usually temporary

Regardless of party. It was natural to expect Obama's bounce to vanish once McCain got his. This happens every 4 years, so don't get too alarmed. There's two more months to sort things out, still.

[iconicgnom]

23. I doubt it. Palin adds nothing to a dead ticket.

The fundies are already onside. If she seems to "energize" the McCain campaign, that shows just how dead it is. mindless war + fundies = GWB.

I expect Obama to consolidate his numbers over the next couple weeks or three, and Palin will help in this by providing a stark contrast, alongside McCain.

Not saying that the Republican campaign and pundits and talking heads won't be gushing all over Palin and doing a fine job of twisting themselves into pretzels of "TV generation" populist fakery and illogic, and manipulative polls will keep coming out to suggest that there's only a hairs-breadth difference between the popularity of the two candidates for POTUS. But that's already happening and will continue to happen anyway.