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What this election will come down to is this:
If voters think the war on terrorism is the most important issue, the election is going to be very close and you have to give a slight nod to Bush (unless something that really shifts the political plates comes up).
If voters think that the flow of political and economic power up to a very wealth, very narrow group of Bush cronies is the biggest issue and if they want to see power flow down to themselves through having good jobs, better public education, more economic opportunity, a fairer, more progressive tax code, then Kerry wins.
So what has been going on in July? We've had the Dem convention, the Olympics and the Republican convention. And what is the first think you think of when you contemplate (and contemplated) these events as they happen (and happened)?
"WILL THERE BE A TERRORIST ATTACK?" (thanks to the media).
If you were thinking not about security and about the events themselves, that would help the Democrats.
This is why you'll hear so many stories about security in NYC.
Now, I don't know what will come up in September and October, but I suspect that the frame of the security threat will dissipate significantly (and hopefully nothing really fucked up will happen in the world). So, things should get better for Kerry after the Republican convention.
However, I think it's an imperative for Democrats to be conscious of this framing of the public's perception of what's going on in the world and do what they can to make sure that threats of terrorism is not the lens through which every event in America is perceived over the next two months.
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