FL Poll: Kerry 46, Bush 46

[TSIAS]

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/elections/sfl-aprezpoll29aug29,0,2215917.story?coll=sfla-news-election

Apparently boosted by his rapid response to the ravages of Hurricane Charley, President Bush has pulled dead even with Democratic challenger John Kerry in the presidential race in Florida.

The race is as close as it can be: 46 percent for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry, 2 percent for independent Ralph Nader and 6 percent undecided, according to a statewide poll commissioned by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Florida Times-Union.

The poll last week of 600 likely voters -- registered voters who have cast ballots regularly in recent elections -- showed a slight gain for Bush since a similar poll a month ago, when Kerry led by 3 percentage points.

As Republicans gather for their national convention this week, the Florida poll indicates a deadlocked race in the largest swing state, with relatively few voters still undecided.

Bush led Kerry in every region of the state except South Florida, where the Democrat held an overwhelming advantage of 56 percent to 31 percent. Voters in the crucial Tampa Bay and central region, considered the pivotal parts of the state, favored Bush by clear margins.

[David Dunham]

1. A tie is OK for now given Bush's billions to FL for hurricane.

Kerry can win FL in the fall by pounding Bush on social security privatization issue.

[Dagaz]

2. looks like another one is coming

CAT 4 lining up at FL but still a week out. Too far to accurately forcast but the early track doesn't look good.

[bluestateguy]

3. Nader should not be offered up in the poll until he is certified

As of now, he is not on the ballot, and should not be treated as if he is a candidate. A Nader vote in Florida is an unforgivable Life Sin.

[TSIAS]

4. Do they poll other minor candidates?

For instance, I think both Cobb (G) and Badnarik (L) already have more solid ballot access than Nader.

[Touchdown]

5. So that means Fl will go to Bush*

...according to Greg Palast, absentee ballots have a party affiliation on the envelope.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x690681

[DemMother]

6. It's actually an improvement over a recent Rasmussen poll

that showed Bush ahead by 49 to 47. If electoral-vote.com counts it, Florida goes into the tie category instead of barely bush.

[SW FL Dem]

7. well they didn't count me

or my spouse or my next door neighbor. None of us voted in FL in 2000. We're all voting for Kerry this time. 537-3 = 534

[EST]

8. Bravo!

With a little help, you will be the saviors of the free world!!

[whistle]

9. This is a total bullshit poll.....

...based on the low sample stated:

"...according to a statewide poll commissioned by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Florida Times-Union. The poll last week of 600 likely voters -- ". That results in a margin of error of nearly +/- 5%.

I am so sick of these media whores doing complete articles based on polls that are statistically meaningless and are used for nothing but self-serving distractions from what is really going on. The article does not even qualify the sample or disclose the polling company used.

I believe Kerry is leading in Florida and I wish some newspaper had the balls to commission a professional objective polling group that would conduct a valid survey in the state for once.

[DaveinMD]

10. 600 people

in a state poll is a valid sample. Any poll of 350 or higher is a valid sample. HOw they construct the sample is where the science lies.

[0rganism]

11. A tie is as good as a 10 point lead for bush

Kerry has to win by 10 just to break even. Florida-style corruption is mindblowing.