Why McCain miscalculated on Palin's effect on his poll numbers

[scheming daemons]

1. Those most excited by the Palin pick were already going to vote for McCain. The Palin pick might have doubled or tripled their enthusiasm about the vote, but they still only get to vote once.


2. They completely misread the small subset of Clinton supporters that were still PUMAs. What they failed to realize is that the only thing that pisses these people off more than Obama taking the nomination from Hillary would be for a REPUBLICAN woman to try to take Hillary's mantle away. This is why they said that Obama would've been spitting in Hillary's face if he chose Sebellius. If McCain thinks that picking Palin would bring PUMAs to his side... and by PUMAs, I mean those pro-Hillary supporters who were STILL anti-Obama and were not Republicans in disguise (all 10 of them).... he miscalculated badly.


3. Obama's speech on Thursday... and the convention as a whole... locked up the Hillary supporters who were actually Democrats, and not part of "Operation Chaos". Picking Palin won't make these people change their view on social issues.


He's making the same mistake that the GOP made in 1992. Turning a "big" election that is based on big issues into a referendum on "family values" and small things.

That worked in 2000, when there were no pressing issues and we were at peace and prosperous. It won't work this year.


That's why the polls are not seeing a "Palin bump".

[WeDidIt]

1. Heh heh,...heh heh

You said "Palin bump".

Heh heh,...heh heh



Cut it out, Beavis.

[truthisfreedom]

2. It's about the money. He believes (and so does rove, who talked about this in Minneapolis) that the

"social conservatives" (code words for fundies) are going to open up their wallets for the 527s so they can fire up the hate machine against Obama. It's not about having a good ticket... IT'S ABOUT THE MONEY. FOLLOW THE MONEY.

[tpi10d]

3. I agree

One additional factor I think we're seeing is the firming up of older Democrats into the Obama camp. Biden helped with this, Palin firmed it up more. I know several women 75+ between the convention, Biden, and Palin are now enthusiastic for the Democratic ticket.