New Polls Show: Dean Downs Other Dems

[WiseMen]

New poll results from CNN/Time and Rasmussen Reports suggest that Dr. Dean’s efforts may have brought down the numbers of other Democrats. The CNN/Time numbers show that despite enormous media exposure and nationwide advertising Howard Dean still trails George Bush 46% to 51%. This is essentially the same result as found in a September 2003 CNN/Gallop poll that showed Dean trailing Bush 46% to 49%.

The New CNN/Time poll found that “only Lieberman gets that much support from likely voters” in a match-up against Bush. The Rasmussen poll show Clark and Kerry numbers against Bush have fallen.

CNN/Time (Likely voters)
01/01/04
-----------------------------------Bush--51-----------Dean----46

Rasmussen Reports (Likely voters)
01/04/04
-----------------------------------Bush--51-----------Dean----37
-----------------------------------Bush--51-----------Clark----32
-----------------------------------Bush--51-----------Kerry----31

Note: Generic Democratic Leader does better than any running candidate.

-----------------------------------Bush--47---------Democrat--42


Sadly, these results show that Dean’s massive campaign spending has principally resulted in the denigration of his more progressive competitors in public opinion. Dean has effectively been co-opted by the Right Wing in the destruction of credible progressive leadership.


Note that last September, both John Kerry and Wesley Clark were both beating Bush in head-to-head matchups.

USAT/CNN/Gallup
9/21/03
-----------------------------------Bush--49-----------Dean----46
-----------------------------------Bush--46-----------Clark----49
-----------------------------------Bush--47-----------Kerry----48


At this point in the campaign process the Democratic front runner could be expected to be leading Bush by 10-20 point, just like Bush and McCain led Gore in Dec 1999 by 13 points.


USAT/CNN/Gallup
12/13/1999
-----------------------------------Gore--42-----------Bush-------55

It is tragic that even with the full war-chest of the progressive movement Dean has not succeeded in dismissing a disaster of a President such as George Bush.

Please, please, lets make some sober judgments regarding the general election. Fundamentals of Howard Dean’s record, and his lack of national security experience, make him very vulnerable. No study or analysis shows how Dean will be able survive the Republican attacks.

The stylized facts of U.S. electoral politics, and evidence to date, suggests that Howard Dean CANNOT WIN in 2004.

We have to wake up out of our DEEP, DEEP, DEEP DENIAL..

[CTLawGuy]

1. so now Dean is responsible for Kerry and Clark being less

"electable"?


:tinfoilhat:

[Octafish]

2. It's called "Poisoning the Well."

It's what Dean and his supporters have been doing for 19 months. What it means is four more years of Bushler.

[Forkboy]

9. I'm just glad other candidates supporters haven't been doing that

[Octafish]

17. Yes. Like when I write about Dean and the Draft.

If I was lying, that would be poisoning the well. When I use Dean's own words, that's OK, because they're what Dean said are the facts.

My question to you is, why doesn't this get picked up more in the mainstream press? My guess is it will, should Dean be the nominee.

Dean admits using deferment to skirt draft

November 24, 2003

BY DAVID RENNIE

WASHINGTON -- Howard Dean, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, has admitted dodging the Vietnam draft, obtaining a medical deferment for a back condition and then spending 10 months skiing.

Asked if he could have served 33 years ago despite his back condition, Dean told the New York Times: "I guess that's probably true. I mean, I was in no hurry to get into the military."

Dean's candor may not have been wholly voluntary.

With his campaign under intense scrutiny from Democratic rivals, it was only a matter of time before attacks focused on his remarkable recovery from spondylolesthesis, a painful condition caused by a misalignment of the spine.

CONTINUED...

http://www.suntimes.com/output/elect/cst-nws-dean24.html

[mouse7]

47. The FACT is Dean was voluntarily entering miltary service

The reason other media isn't running the story is because they read the WHOLE NY Times story and realized that at the bottom of the story text you see Dean was taking the physical for entry for active duty more than a year before his student deferment expired. Dean had decided that he was going to enter Officers Candidate School.

No draft board medical teams were never involved with Howard Dean. Howard Dean was taking the physical you take when voluntarily entering active duty in order to go to Officers Candidate School.

"...In early 1970, more than a year before Dr. Dean's student deferment was due to lapse, he decided to see where he stood.

If approved for service, he said, he thought he might try Officer Candidate School, as a Yale friend had done. He said he had never considered the National Guard.

So, he came to his physical armed with X-rays and a letter from his orthopedist...."

"...A few weeks later, a letter arrived informing him that his draft classification had been changed from 2-S, the student deferment, to 1-Y...."

http://college3.nytimes.com/guests/articles/2003/11/22/1126070.xml

Sorry. You cannot call Dean a draft dodger for multiple reasons. The biggest are that Dean tried to enter active duty service voluntarily. Dean was ready and willing (if not at all happy) to enter active duty and Officer Candidate School.

Octafish, you gotta stop claiming Dean attempted to dodge the draft. Dean went down to his military physical ready and willing to enter Officers Candidate School.

First line of the story...

"In the winter of 1970, a 21-year-old student from Yale walked into his armed services physical in New York carrying X-rays and a letter from his orthopedist, eager to know whether a back condition might keep him out of the military..."

Dean had no prior knowledge that he was to be disqualified. Dean was ready and willing to serve in the US military, and voluntarily went down to start the military entrance process.

[pasadenaboy]

18. your candidate had more money and more media attention to start with

why couldn't he shape the debate? How did he fall apart?

If he can't keep the lead as a candidate and moves from favorite to 4th place, how can we trust him to run a smart campaign against Bush?

[Octafish]

38. Well reasoned and stated, pasadenaboy!

My only answer is Kerry thought he'd do things by the book, which meant hiring the best pros money can buy. Unfortunately, many are (and some were) the same ones who helped Al Gore run an underdog's campaign from a position of strength.

My advice to Kerry is to lay the wood down on Bush. Mention BCCI and how it ties straight through to 9-11. Toss in ENRON and how corrput the Big Oil turds are. Remind them of who's benefited most from all those offshore tax havens. And bring it all back to BUSH. That'd scare the Little Turd from Crawford so bad he'd wet every mattress on Air Force 1.

[farmbo]

21. No..its called "having a message"

Not focus-grouped platitudes.

[Octafish]

37. Good point. But Kerry speaks for himself.

John Kerry's problem is putting it into a form the average person can understand. His choice of words makes such a person feel that Kerry is of another world, one above their level. I'd recommend the guy stop and stoop over to listen more, then talk using words and phrases Joe and Jane Sixpack will remember. Phrases like "I didn't think Bush would (eff) things up as badly as he has" come to mind. The one I suggest Kerry use is "Bush is a Crook!"

[mouse7]

45. Think you're giving Dean too much credit

Kerry's been doing just fine poisoning his own well.

Kerry's IWR support ended Kerry's campaign before it started. People are SO mad about how much the Dem party regulars in DC rolled over for Dumbya that anyone who voted with Dumbya on key Dumbya objectives had no shot the the party nomination.

The people have spoken.

[dkf]

3. You totally crack me up!

OMG everything is Dean's fault.

Funny.

[CTLawGuy]

4. Gore was not an incumbent

I see your section on how, for some reason, Dean should be LEADING Bush...

Gore was not an incumbent president, and George W. Bush had the same friggin NAME as a former president. I think Bush's name ID was much higher in 2000 than most challengers in other years, including Dean. So you can't take that and say that Dean is going to lose.

[WiseMen]

15. McCain also led Gore. V.P. has power of incumbency. By definition.

McCain 52%
Gore 44%

Do some reading on meaning of the "power of incumbency." V.P position gave Gore that power.

[WillyT]

5. Yeah, You're Right, Dean Cannot Win, At Least With You Guys !!!

Seems to be winning just about everywhere else, but not with you guys.

:hi::evilgrin::hi:

[Skip Intro]

6. That's misleading

<< At this point in the campaign process the Democratic front runner could be expected to be leading Bush by 10-20 point, just like Bush and McCain lead Gore in Dec 1999 by 13 points. >>


bush, sad as the fact is, is the incumbent pResident. Gore was not in the same position. Further, there are nine Democratic candidates, as compared to two republicans in your example. Even further, bush had then, and continues to have to this day, a very compliant, praising media. The comparison is faulty.

When we Democrats choose our nominee, a head to head matchup will be much more telling. By the way, a five point deficit, considering such factors, is remarkable. Imho.

[WiseMen]

8. Power of Incumbency applies to V.P. office which commands Media Attention

It applies to command of Media, ability to shape events etc.

This is well understood and is why Parties like to run the V.P. as the presidential candidate.

[mouse7]

50. Only partially.

The VP is someone who attend funerals and gets to sleep in late in the minds of many. Being a VP gets some name recognition, and the ability to claim you agreed with a president, which Gore ran from like the plague a good portion of the time.

[Bucky]

7. I'm sorry, but this is just getting silly.

Polls mean not too much right now. Dean isn't in my opinion our strongest candidate, but let's not be blind to some of his incredible strengths and the assets that he brings to the party and this election. I believe with good leadership from Dean these new supporters can translate into support for ousting Bush and what ever Republican members of Congress they go against.

If our guys are losing to Bush right now, it's their own fault and their supporters' fault and nobody else's. I think we can win and I believe I'm backing the best, not the only candidate. I'll back whoever we pick. ABB!

[clarknyc]

12. Thanks, Bucky!

Good post. I support Dean, but ABB here, too.

[Rose Siding]

10. Dean hasn't spent as much as Kerry

in New Hampshire. So that can't be it.

[WiseMen]

43. The Record Show Dean Slamming Dems from Early 2003

Dean Campaign has engaged a most vicious attacks in NH and IOWA against the leading Dems for almost a year. It is simply a campaign deception tactic for Dean to complain about the mild criticism he is receiving.

USA Today, April 28, 2003

"Until now, the competition has been relatively harmonious, at least for public consumption, with the exception of Dean. His attacks on fellow Democrats have been so cutting that sometimes the Republican National Committee e-mails them to party members. "Gephardt Plan: 'Pie-In-The-Sky Radical Revamping' " was the headline on one last week, quoting Dean.

Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri have been Dean targets in recent weeks. But Dean has reserved his sharpest thrusts for Kerry, repeatedly accusing him of selling out Democratic principles. The two men are virtually tied for the lead in polls in New Hampshire, which holds the critically important first primary election."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-04-28-dem-words_x.htm

[mouse7]

51. Need better research, "WiseMen"

"His attacks on fellow Democrats have been so cutting that sometimes the Republican National Committee e-mails them to party members. "Gephardt Plan: 'Pie-In-The-Sky Radical Revamping' " was the headline on one last week, quoting Dean."

According to this article, the e-mail named in this article was sent by THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE. The only thing the named e-mail had to do with Dean was it included a Dean quote cut and pasted in by the RNC member that sent that e-mail to their RNC mailing list.

The only supposed Dean attack that actually has a Dean quote in it in this article has a 3 word Dean quote in it. I refuse to accept a three word quote as evidence of anything. There's no way to determine the context.

There are better sources out there, "WiseMen." Use them.

[RetroLounge]

11. OMFG! Your are sooooo funny...

Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean
Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean
Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean
Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean
Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean
Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean
Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean
Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean
Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean

[NWHarkness]

13. I keep doing the math, but I can't work it out

How do you figure that the polls showing Dean doing better against Bush than Clark or Kerry indicate that he's less electable than they are?

[Forkboy]

16. Mind boggling logic,isn't it?

[Cheswick2.0]

14. Is it Dean's fault? Or is it actually

Clinton's fault... hmmmmmmmmmm

[WiseMen]

40. Just Listen to Dean's Rhetoric. It's destructive to Dem plain and simple.

[mouse7]

48. Clinton's penis, actually n/t

[eileen from OH]

19. WE? I don't think that you believe that YOU

are in DEEP DEEP DEEP denial, do you? It's really just us stoopider-than-shit Dean supporters that need to be roused from their Deep Sleep of The Damned, isn't it?

I'm not even gonna get into the particulars of some of your "stylized facts" (whatever the bloody hell those are) cuz others will do it better and it's late and I'm tired.

We are not amused. Or convinced.

eileen from OH

[mouse7]

49. I am amused.

I do have an awful dark sense of humor, though.

[Hoppin_Mad]

20. A truly desperate attempt at spin ! LOL ! ;-) -eom-

[dsc]

22. and of course Kerry's mean spirited lousy campaign

is utterly blameless. Dean didn't make Kerry vote for the IWR. He didn't make Kerry tell ten different stories as to why he did it. And he didn't make Kerry use Bushian rhentoric to attack Dean instead of say positive things.

[WiseMen]

27. Dean Spends His Money Labeling Dems as Dupes. Over, and Over.

All the candidate must take responsibility for the kind of campaign they run and their successes and failure. If Dean fails to take the nomination against all the odds, I am sure his opponents will also take some credit for that.

My point is, however, that for much of the past year the essential theme of the Dean Campaign has been the proposition that Party Leaders such are Kerry, Gephart etc. were DUPES of the Bush Regime. This, repeated enough, effectively denegrates the entire leadership of the Party.

Dean has been quite frank at times in stating this as one of his goals.

It is quite an innovation for Dean to mail out the most vicious attack ads to IOWA, while smiling to the cameras and announcing the Howard "the angry man" Dean, is now from a place called hope.

[dsc]

36. At this point it is hard to make the case that Kerry isn't

Aside from the IWR vote there is the tax cut nonsense, the we are safer with Saddam captured (we have now been on Orange alert for well over a week and have missle batteries protecting DC), and a host of other things. It is Kerry's, and no one other than Kerry's, fault that he is in the mess he is in. He is behind in his own state. Not even the dismal campaign of Lieberman or the wretched campaign of Gephard, produced that kind of result.

[Romberry]

23. Your spin is pathetic. Really

None of the poll numbers for any of the candidates against Bush mean much of anything right now. After all, we don't even have a Democratic nominee in place! Besides, in 1992 we saw Bill Clinton's numbers against Bush Sr. in the low 20's. But regardless of all that, trying to spin a statistical dead heat where Dean is within easy striking distance of Bush as some sort of negative is just beyond the pale. Is there something wrong with you or was your post a failed attempt at satire?

[farmbo]

24. Reality check: These polls show Dean is the most electable candidate

...yet you spin them--somehow-- as a rationale for an imperative Stop Dean movement.

And your (twisted) logic is:

"The stylized facts of U.S. electoral politics, and evidence to date, suggests that Howard Dean CANNOT WIN in 2004."

Sorry...I will rely on REAL facts...and stay with Dean.

[mike from ri]

52. dean unelectable

and current polls are measures of name rec--do not portend good dean performance in general election once he is subjected to withering bush attacks. remember dukakis?

[windansea]

25. wisemen speak truth

plenty coups says dump Dean

[Forkboy]

29. wisemen speak spin and opinion

some can't tell difference.

[WiseMen]

30. Why Deny Dean's Device: Down "Washington Dems" as Bush-Lite

[windansea]

32. Forkboy getting played

by corporate media

wisemen understand...trying to help scalp bushler

[Forkboy]

33. Played by coporate media?

I dont even have cable :shrug:

:)

[windansea]

35. see post 34

newspapers and pollsters can be corporate too...as well as the networks

[Forkboy]

39. I haven't taken a single poll seriously ever

and if just reading a paper or watching a network is the criteria how do we know you're not the one being played?

[nomaco-10]

26. A deeply delusional analysis of a poll that ....

only someone could come up with whose candidate's campaign has gone down the tubes.

Quote: "Dr. Dean's efforts may have brought down the numbers of other Democrats". Duh, that's what candidates do that run good campaigns and connect with their constituents. Now that is what I call "SOBER JUDGEMENT" and you, my friend, seem to be the one that is suffering from "DEEP, DEEP, DEEP DENIAL".

[dajabr]

28. This is a great thread!

For me to Poop on!

[Cheswick2.0]

31. W

This is sad. Why not spend more time helping Kerry instead of posting these nonsense pieces.
You could organize a fundraiser or write some letters. You could consider asking him to drop out. But this kind of nonsense, it doesn't help anyone.
Why not just join the Dean campaign? We can even pretend that you were there all along leading the charge, rallying the troops if that makes you feel better.

[windansea]

34. check this

posted by thebigthink in another thread but relevant here

I should point out that while national polls can be useful as a rough barometer of the national mood, they are worthless for predicting election results, since we don't have national elections in this country. Presidential elections are actually a series of 50 statewide elections that all happen on the same day (due to the electoral college).

If you want to get a feel for someone's "electability" in the general election, look at New Hampshire. New Hampshire is a Republican-leaning swing state the went for Reagan twice, Clinton twice, and for Bush I in 88 and Bush II in 2000. Right now the people of the Granite state are as familiar with the entire Democratic field as anyone in the country is likely to be with the eventual Democratic nominee by next November, so looking at how they stack up against Bush in NH could actually tell you something useful.

In the most recent NH poll (a real one, by American Research Group) that pitted Democrats versus Bush:

- Kerry and Lieberman both lose to Bush by 15%
- Clark and Gephardt lose by 19%
- Howard Dean by loses 25%.

Remember to double the margin of error when looking at margins in polls. The MoE for that poll was +/- 4% so it could be said that Bush has a solid lead over Kerry and Lieberman, a commanding lead over Clark and Gephardt, and gives Dean a painful spanking.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm tired of getting spanked by Republicans.

[janx]

41. Do you have a link? Please?

A link would be appreciated! Thanks!

[dfong63]

42. the numbers show nothing of the sort

Dean went up; some other dems went down. why that happened is a matter of interpretation. you could just as well interpret this outcome as meaning that the other dems' attacks on Dean backfired.

[T_i_B]

44. Gaffe-prone Dean claws his way back in US poll

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-953258,00.html

HOWARD DEAN, the runaway favourite to claim the presidential nomination for the Democrats, has gained ground on President Bush despite a month of good news for the White House.

Dr Dean trails Mr Bush by five points, within the statistical margin for error of the latest Time/CNN poll, even though the former Vermont Governor has spent much time in recent weeks having to clear up a series of gaffes.

Mr Bush is now ahead of Dr Dean with 51 per cent to 46 per cent. The President’s lead was put at 60 per cent to 37 per cent in the immediate aftermath of the capture of Saddam Hussein, but Dr Dean has pulled him back steadily, despite the benefits to Mr Bush of Libya’s decision to end its weapons of mass destruction programmes.

The figures suggest that there is a resilience to the Dean campaign despite his rivals’ increasingly heated warnings that his loose tongue and strident anti-war platform make him unelectable.

[mike from ri]

53. name recognition only

dean will implode in the fall.

[mouse7]

55. That's because voters prefer "gaffes" to "shock and awe"

Dean hasn't been a terribly great candidate, but the others in the field have ben hamstrung by TERRIBLE campaign strategies.

Dean and his gaffes are then compared to Dumbya, voters take a deep sigh of relief, and swing to the Dem side of the ledger.

Voters are comparing Dean to Dumbya and they prefer gaffes over endless wars and destruction of the economic base of our country.

To be honest, Dean "gaffes" may be boosting his poll numbers. The "Get Dean" drumbeat is a drumbeat about very minor problems in comparison to Dumbya's assault on everything Americans hold dear. The Dean "gaffes" point out just how much better a choice a Democrat will be in the next election than Dumbya.

[mouse7]

46. "WiseMen", you're always good for a laugh

The way you spin things is quite imaginitive.

The poll you posts shows Dean is within 5 points if Dumbya 11 months before the general election, and you CLAIM that "proves" Dean cannot win.

You are claiming Dean is doing so well against Bush, it "proves" he'll do poorly.

Whatever, "Wiseman". You're too funny.

[mike from ri]

54. dean's "support" in polls is name recognition only

[mouse7]

56. Read #55

I have a theory the "Dean gaffe" drumbeat is helping Dean.

[Raya]

62. Does it Matter. Corporate Boys have their man one way or the other

[CWebster]

57. Why does anyone put any stock in polls?

They are such an obvious tool for manipulation in instructing the country as to how they should think. If you are cognizant of the fact that the media increasingly does not represent the will of, or the interests of the people - who are relegated to the status of a focus group, but broadcasts the agenda to support the corporation's interests---how could anyone possibly put any stock in the most obvious and effective propaganda campaigns of all---polls. Even so-called liberal Democratic politicians heeded pundits of polls over the voices of their own constituents. This is the tragedy of the "new Democrat" strategy - all effort and attention is based on how to diffuse the Republican message by hijacking it. There is little faith in the Democratic identity, so Democrats are increasingly left without a voice in the corporate party's media coverage of popular consensus.

[WiseMen]

60. Public Opinion is "Largely" manipulated by Media Cues. But not entirely.

[quaker bill]

58. oops, one more unwise analysis

The polls were fairly solid until the capture of Saddam, when they fell off a bit.

The numbers you cite have are directly related to the capture of Saddam and the expected bush* bounce resulting from this. It has already dissipated, at least for Dean.

[Scott Lee]

63. Dean, surprisingly, seems to have gotten a bounce from Saddam

Which I never would have foreseen. I still am in awe that Bush's numbers didn't go through the roof with that one.

[Name removed]

59. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

61. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Padraig18]

64. Same whore, different street corner...

We are now on version 2.01.1(b) of the 'cobble crap together and try and make it look important' meme...

[Closer]

65. How's the weather out

west in Arizona "Wisemen" ?

[Scott Lee]

66. What can I say, "Wisemen"? Politics is hell.

My suggestion for the Democratic candidates (minus frontrunner Dean) is that if they can't tolerate the rise in atmospheric calorification, then they should consider exiting the culinary preparation facility.

Or something like that.

[Raya]

67. OMG! Newest Poll Confirms Exactly what this post says. Dean Looser, But

he has taken the other long-time Dems down with him. Only Clark, who has not been slimed by Dean attacks, still has a positive image.

Dean is destroying our Party.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-01-06-bush-poll-usat_x.htm

[adamrsilva]

68. So, let me get this straight. Because Dean does better

against Bush than any other Dem he can't win?