Obama's Eighteen Comes Alive!

[phrigndumass]

The 18 battleground states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts is beginning to rocket! All the polls in these 18 states since June 1 are tracked and trended in the graph below. The 18 battleground states are listed below the graph. Obama's line is blue, and McCain's line is red. Notice the hook upward in the past few days :D



Obama's Eighteen:
Alaska (Ha!) (3)
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Indiana (11)
Iowa (7)
Michigan (17)
Missouri (11)
Montana (3)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Ohio (20)
Pennsylvania (21)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

:woohoo:

[JustAnotherGen]

1. n/t

:woohoo: And it's nice to see an Obama thread! :pals:

[phrigndumass]

4. LOL :)

My apologies for not posting a Palin thread in GD: Palin :rofl:

:hi:

[tekisui]

2. Beautiful. KNR!

[NYC_SKP]

3. You so rock!

You're the master of election data deciphering.

Whoever called you a phrigndumass was a, well, phrigndumass.

:toast:

[phrigndumass]

9. I named myself, lol :)

:toast:

[NYC_SKP]

16. Then you indeed are...

not living up to your name with these posts...

Hey, I checked 538 thinking that graph might be posted, is it at another site or just your own work product, or both?

:toast:

[phrigndumass]

18. It's my own work, but I used pollster.com's data

... for each of the 18 states. I love me some spreadsheets! All my graphs and charts are self-produced with the exception of a few that I borrow from 538 or pollster.com.

:hi:

[NYC_SKP]

19. 538 and pollster, the best go-to sites.

I loved demconwatch during the primaries.

Your posts always bring sanity to DU and help to counter the tendency folks have to get excited (or concerned) by the national polls...

Thanks!

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

[RichardRay]

22. re 538 simulation outcomes

The Electoral Vote Simulation chart that he does; I'm not certain I grok its fullness. If you've spent some time looking at it (or anyone else) can I get some help...

I assume he's running a Monte Carlo and graphing the number of outcomes that give each electoral vote total. I think I read someplace that he does a 10,000 simulation run. The resulting graph can be summarized by eyeballing the area under curve that approximates the Obama win simulations and comparing it to the area under McCain's wins. Even if a 270 vote outcome for McCain has the greatest number of outcomes, that's doesn't support a McCain win if Obama has more outcomes in total pointing the other way.

It looks like the Scenario Analysis that appears a bit further down the page is a snapshot of a few of the interesting outcomes (i.e. Obama loses OH but wins the election in 26.64% of the outcomes and McCain in 6.05%, so it's way more important for McCain to take OH than it is for Obama, suggesting that it's also important for Obama to take OH away from McCain).

?????

[phrigndumass]

25. Everything you could possibly want to know about 538's methodology is linked here

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html

Scroll down to Process Overview. A 10,000 simulation is the last of six steps.

Hope this helps! :hi:

[yellerpup]

5. You make my heart beat faster

with news like this! WOW! Go Obama!!! :dem: :woohoo: :dem:

[Coexist]

6. knr!

[medicswife]

7. Kick!!!!

Whooohoo!!!!! And I think I turned the Schwan's man into an Obamacan yesterday!

[phrigndumass]

8. A little milk does a body good, lol!

:hi:

[Eric J in MN]

10. Time to concede Alaska.

Put more into the other 17.

[phrigndumass]

11. That still leaves 196 electoral votes to play with :)

Toss Alaska's three electoral votes aside, but we should still have the funds to work there to help down-ticket.

:hi:

[gratefultobelib]

12. I can't figure this out! How do you tell what the individual states are doing? I want Missouri

to go for Obama!! Heading out to canvass this very morning.

[phrigndumass]

13. Here ya go :)

Let's show 'em some Obama in Missouri! :hi:

[Demeter]

24. Now That's More Like It!

[Eric J in MN]

17. I donated to the Missouri Democratic Party.

Good luck with your canvasssing.

[jakem]

14. good info. Thank you!

:hi:

[RichardRay]

15. 50% of the convention bump usually sticks

so even at that rate this is looking pretty nice.

[phrigndumass]

20. I wouldn't be surprised if 100% sticks this year :)

:hi:

[RichardRay]

21. Proportional to the second derivative

and the inverse of the Republican bump!

[grantcart]

23. Obama's 18 great idea where did you get it from? lol

We now have another great graph to hunger for every day.

Now here is the amazing thing, if you were to draw that graph 6 months ago the way that you would want it to go it would look exactly like it does now. You would want it above McCain but you would also want it to go down before the convention so that from the convention on it would show steady growth as the numbers are not as important as managing expectations.

These guys have a plan and they are working it.

[phrigndumass]

26. From you, of course! :)

Ze plan, she is working, no?

Then I read this crap from Zogby and :spray: ...
Brash McCain pick of AK Gov. Palin neutralizes historic Obama speech, stunts the Dems' convention bounce

He conducted an "interactive flash poll" ... an internet poll, lol