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that people think there must be more to it than what they see.
Also, low expectations often lead to those expectations being exceeded. Maybe she's stronger than we expect. She wouldn't have to be good with the expectations people are setting for her. She would just have to be able to speak clear sentences, and by today's standards, she'd be over-qualified.
It's a good pick for McCain in some ways, but it also says something very interesting about our chances in November. It's a good pick for McCain because it gives a lot of people (not all of them women) who are angry at Obama over Clinton (and one would presume they are also angry now at Clinton for backing Obama so wholeheartedly) an additional excuse to vote for McCain. No, not many are going to say "Hey, if I can't vote for Clinton, I'll vote for the first woman I can find." What they might be likely to say is "If Obama is going to stab us in the back like this (not saying he did, just saying that's how some are going to see it. Some people don't let things go.), we are going to show him what a mistake he made by crossing us. I was going to vote for a minor party, but that wouldn't hurt Obama enough. Now that McCain has chosen a woman, I can send a clear message to Obama that he can't ignore me, and vote for McCain." No, it makes no sense, given Palin's opposition to everything that could have made a person support Clinton in the first place, but you know there are some who will feel that way.
It's also a good pick over the experience issue. If Obama or Biden attack her as inexperienced, the return comments will be "She's got as much high-level experience as Obama, and she's been an executive, so her experience is more relevant." Yes, we can argue that Obama has a law degree and was a local politician in a district with probably as many people as Palin has seen in her entire life, but that will sound elitist to some. And Obama and Biden have to avoid seeming sexist in attacking her, or they will anger more of those who think Obama ran a sexist campaign. It's a decent little trap that McCain has set, in other words.
But the bigger picture is this: McCain's internal polling must show that he's a goner. Otherwise he'd have picked someone who strengthened his experience and gravitas, and set him up as the mature, sober candidate, against the "celebrity" he has been trying to turn Obama into. Picking Palin (who I think we are underestimating, but who is still not in the big leagues) shows desperation, and a need to shake things up. McCain's numbers show that he's loosing, that he can't shake Bush, and that his only chance is to do something drastic.
And that's good news for us. Because while Palin is "something drastic," she's also a swing for the bleachers in the bottom of the ninth. And McCain ain't Kirk Gibson.
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