Obama Is Still Going To Kick The Shit Out Of McCain

[THUNDER HANDS]

I thought this was going to be a blowout election six months ago. I thought it was going to be a blowout six weeks ago. I thought it was going to be a blowout six days ago.

And six minutes ago, I still thought it was going to be a blowout.

McCain picked a mannequin for his vice presidential running mate. Nobody knows who she is. She can be whatever they say she is.

Big fucking deal.

McCain is going to his convention on Monday with a running mate nobody knows, two hurricanes bearing down on the gulf coast and Southeast, a probable 10-12 point deficit in the polls and nobody interesting lined up to speak at his convention.

To top that off, he himself is a terrible speaker, and isn't going to come across well to Americans who are going to compare his speach to Obama's.

I wouldn't be shocked if McCain's poll numbers free-fell following the convention.

Hell, they probably are this minute. Why else would he toss out a hail-mary pass like this. You don't make a play like this when you have a strong hand. You make it when the ship is sinking.

McCain is sunk. Obama by 10 in November. Bank on it.

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. We still have to defeat the M$M spin machine and election rigging

[kimmerspixelated]

3. You're right!

But I am more confident than ever that THEY will have a hard time stealing and changing so many overwhelming numbers. It's hard to hide or manipulate the kind of numbers we saw last night.And that was just one small area. I also think the MSM can't keep up with the bogus polls. Someone will catch it!

[GreenPartyVoter]

5. My theory is either a) they throw this one like the congressional elections or

b) they steal it and this time there are so many outraged people we take to the streets.

[kimmerspixelated]

2. Bingo!

[Awsi Dooger]

4. I wish you made the betting line

There's no such thing as a 10 point Democratic victory in an open race for the presidency, not in this polarized era. Obama might be able to manage that margin if he has a wildly successful first term. In 2012 he'd be in the most favorable scenario, incumbent with his party in power only one term.

Two reasons why a Democrat can't win by that margin nationally:

* The country is 21% liberal, 33% conservative. We're always swimming upstream. The GOP has higher ceiling

* We don't contest every state. Even the Obama camp concedes they only care about polling in 18 states. We're going to get swamped in smaller states and that adds up

The most likely margin of victory is 2-4 points.

[qwlauren35]

6. nudge

Back on focus, folks.