Challenger polls well, but small swing could change it all

[Nicholas_J]

John Kerry has fended off attacks on his Vietnam War record to stay level with President George Bush in national popularity ratings - and ahead in most of the 20 swing states where the election will ultimately be decided, an opinion poll has found.

The survey, by Zogby International, suggested Mr Bush would go into next week's Republican convention in New York facing a serious challenge.

Senator Kerry is leading in 13 of the 20 battleground states, where both campaigns have focused their efforts. That lead translates into a disproportionate advantage in the electoral college, which will choose the next president.

But Senator Kerry's advantage is tenuous. His margin in each of the battleground states is just a few percentage points, and so it would take only a small swing towards Mr Bush to transform the electoral college in the opposite direction.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/08/26/1093518010115.html?oneclick=true

[pscot]

1. Gotta take Zogby with a grain of salt.

His polls tend to run off the Liberal end. If he's finding a tie it probably means Kerry's trailing.