I think that Obama will perform significantly better in the popular vote than the electoral college

[tritsofme]

Whether or not he wins the electoral college.

I think that Obama is going to just pile up huge vote totals in major urban centers. But of course he can only win the electoral votes of Illinois and New York ect one time, whether he wins the state with 51% of the vote or 90%.

To me, this means that if John McCain somehow makes the electoral math work in his favor, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he loses the popular vote, in a much more dramatic fashion that Bush did in 2000.

That scenario is unlikely IMO, because I really don't think McCain has the ability to win, but it is something interesting to think about. It will most likely mean that Obama wins with a healthy lead in the popular vote, and a relatively narrower victory in the electoral college.

[Clear Blue Sky]

1. Electoral vote is the one that matters. So be had better win that one.

Popular vote is interesting but irrelevant. Ask Gore.

[FrenchieCat]

2. He's gonna fucking win it all.

Go tell your loved ones I said so.

[FogerRox]

3. A large NJ Urban center turnedout @ around 60%, in 2006 thats poor.

Dem turnout has been better in some suburban areas. THis effect is likely to cause a larger EC win than popular vote. Like in '64. Goldwater won about 60% of the vote, but got 90% of the EC.

[tritsofme]

4. Except in the 2008 scenario Republicans have the edge in less populous states that are

over-represented in the EC relative to their population.

Obama could just make a killing in popular votes in Harlem and in Newark, in two states Democrats are guaranteed a win, but Obama could fail to bring a state like OH into the fold and lose the election with a substantial popular vote lead.

Obama could even score a big popular vote mandate, and have a less impressive EC win than Clinton in 92 or 96.

All of this is irrelevant to the election's outcome, its just some random thoughts running through my head.

[FogerRox]

8. Hello ? Recently Newark dems turnout is too low.

Rural & Suburban Dems turnout at a much higher rate.

I frankly dont see your scenario occurring. I've just got my head into some spreadsheets now, there is nothing there that says rural & suburban dems wont turnout. In fact they turnout much higher than urban dems.

So those thoughts are not random, they are scattered thoughts, not backed up by facts.

[tritsofme]

9. You do not think Obama at the top of the ticket will bring hoards of black voters that we haven't

seen at the polls recently, or ever?

I just can't imagine the black inner city vote will not be exaggerated significantly from 2000/2004 levels.

I'm not trying to say that other turnout will not increase as well, but we are not going to see a state like Kansas flip this year

[FogerRox]

10. Hello, Newark turns out at 60%, Fairfield turns out at 80%

Thats the starting point. Deal with it.

Voter reg as % in urban areas is lower too, thats the other starting point. Deal with it.

I just can't imagine the black inner city vote will not be exaggerated significantly from 2000/2004 levels.

Yes the numbers from urban areas will improve, but the starting point is 20% down. Thats a hell of a handicap to start.

Imagine doesnt get people registered to vote, it doesnt get time off from work to vote, it does pay for taxi or bus fare to get from work to the polling place.

These are the 8 states that Goldwater won in 64, 90% EC win, based on 60% popular vote win.



Historically, an increased popular vote trends to a bigger EC win. Clinton didnt get close to LBJ numbers, and thats the difference between 56% and 60%.


1930 was like 2006, dems won big chunks of the house, and some in the senate, so if 2008 is like 1932.... well look it up, its on wiki. If Obama wins big, it will because of voters in states like Kansas. And yes, there might be 35 to 40 states in play in 2008, and thats partially because white suburban voters turnout 10 to 20 % more than blacks do.

Theres a lot of work to be done, but its going to be worth it.

[On the Road]

5. I Have Heard Bill Schneider Make the Same Point

but if that were true, why is Obama doing better in electoral projections than in national polls?

[BlooInBloo]

6. I think it'll be just the opposite, actually.

[CreekDog]

7. Obama is actually trying for western and rural votes

something the previous campaigns have not come close to doing. that should tamp down the margins Republicans typically expect as well as help our congressional candidates.