My State by State Election Projection: Pre Convention Update

[darius15]

Every 2 weeks I do a state by state projection. This is the last projection before the conventions, the next one will be after both conventions. I base these on polling, trends, and my gut feeling.

For my projections from two weeks ago, click here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=6617806

Here you go:


THIS PROJECTION
National O+1
Washington O+10
Oregon 0+7
California O+16
Alaska M+4
Hawaii O+25
Idaho M+16
Nevada M+1
Utah M+25
Arizona M+11
Montana M+2
Wyoming M+17
Colorado TIE
New Mexico 0+5
North Dakota M+6
South Dakota M+8
Nebraska M+19
Kansas M+17
Oklahoma M+25
Texas M+10
Minnesota O+6
Iowa O+5
Missouri M+6
Arkansas M+13
Louisiana M+16
Wisconsin O+8
Illinois O+17
Michigan O+4
Florida M+3
Mississippi M+12
Alabama M+18
Georgia M+7
South Carolina M+9
North Carolina M+4
Tennessee M+19
Kentucky M+17
West Virginia M+12
Virginia M+1
Indiana M+6
Ohio TIE
Pennsylvania O+6
Maryland O+15
Delaware O+9
New Jersey O+10
New York O+16
Connecticut 0+17
Massachusetts O+14
Rhode Island O+20
Vermont O+25
New Hampshire O+1
Maine O+13
DC O+68

With Toss Ups (within 3 percent):
Obama 260, McCain 197, 81 Toss Up

2 WEEKS AGO: Obama 264, McCain 186, 88 Toss Up

With No Toss Ups
Obama 264, McCain 245, 29 Tie

2 WEEKS AGO: Obama 306, McCain 232



As you can see, Obama lost ground across the board. But, take this with a grain of salt. Obama is having his VP weekend followed by the convention, then the GOP Convention. I'd say after both conventions are done, Obama will have a lead higher than the 1 percent he does now, but it will still be a modest lead. The race will not truly shake up until the debates.

Overall, Obama has his nose barely ahead, but we have to work really hard over the next 2 months to ensure Obama wins!