The Brilliance of Plouffe and Axelrod ($200M in 24 hours)

[Perky]

Anyone know how big the email list is now? My guessis that is is probably close to 20 Million. Right after the acceptance speech they are goint to email 20 million people and ask for $25. I bet they get a haul of $200 Million in 24 hours.

Now that is real "public financing".

[lamp_shade]

1. Get in line behind me folks.

[HeraldSquare212]

2. Genuis.

[flpoljunkie]

3. Now that would be a brilliant move and real 'public financing.'

[depakid]

4. Yet for all that money, their poll numbers have been dropping

doesn't sound genius to me.

[DevonRex]

5. Go slither back under your rock. nt

[depakid]

6. Try waking up and smelling the coffee

Kumbaya isn't going to win this election- no matter how much money the campaign throws at it.

[Alter Ego]

7. Obviously you haven't been paying attention lately

but if you were you'd see that's the furthest thing from Obama's campaign strategy there is.

[depakid]

12. I read other sites and follow the speeches

and think critically and watch the commercials.

What's more, I'm hardly alone in this opinion- though around here, anyone who points out facts and trends without rose colored glases is tossed under the bus.

Paul Krugman- bus

Rachel Maddow- bus

Arianna Huffington- bus

Pick the commentator- or professor of sociology or political science who dares to note that the stragety thus far has been anything but brilliant, and I'll show you a bus.

[BlueIdaho]

8. Boy, I bet you just can't wait to tell everybody "I told you so..." huh? nt.

[depakid]

13. I would much rather be wrong- or better yet- I'd much rather see the campaign change its tenor

Same as I would have liked in 2004.

[AdHocSolver]

16. Obama campaign better remember Lakoff, Pavlov, and wolf pack mentality.

Obama is making a mistake if he thinks it pays to be "polite" to McCain. In some speech that was replayed on TV (I forget where), Obama used the term "war hero" when referring to McCain. The sense was "I know he was a war hero, but..."

According to "Lakoff's rules", you never use terminology that is used by your opponent. You only reinforce that opponent's terminology. Once the public hears the phrase "war hero", they form a picture developed by your opponent, and tune out whatever else you say thereafter.

You also never use a "derogatory" phrase about you developed by your opponent. This brings up a negative image about you and whatever you say following that invocation is lost. For example, Obama might intend to refute something negative by saying "My opponent says that I lah di dah, etc." Bad idea. Using an opponent's terminology reinforces it.

This was demonstrated by Pavlov many years ago when he trained dogs to salivate at the ringing of a bell. That this technique applies to humans, also, is abundantly clear in the fact of the "success" of the multibillion dollar advertising industry, and the "success" of right wing talk radio.

How does wolf pack mentality fit in here? On a TV show about wolves a few years ago, the people that studied the wolves explained that the leader of the wolf pack, called the alpha male, was not the smartest or the strongest wolf, but the most aggressive wolf. The leader was the "last" wolf to "give up". Once a wolf who had been leader was successfully challenged, the former leader would leave the pack.

McCain's age and senility can be overcome if he can project himself as the "attack dog" who never gives up. Their campaign apparently understands this, which is why they are always on the offensive. Their attacks are hypocrital, state outright lies, and to the uninitiated, look like a sign of weakness.

However, nothing could be further from the truth. Tying together Lakoff, Pavlov, and the operation of the wolf pack explains totally the McCain strategy. Obama ignores this at his (and our country's) peril. The Republicans only have to narrow the gap between himself and Obama by election day, and the Republican vote counting machine will steal yet another election.

What should Obama do? Stop referring to Obama as a "war hero". Don't even use the term. Don't refer to McCain as a "maverick". He isn't a maverick, he is an opportunist. Don't talk about his "experience" in the Senate. Do bring up his abandoning the veterans when he should have stood up for them, for example, when McCain voted against health care benefits.

Don't call McCain names, but don't hesitate to use his own words and actions against him. In other words, "attack" McCain aggressively. Attack McCain on every front, quick, repeated jabs, and see what sticks best. That is what McCain's tactics are toward Obama because it works. The Obama campaign must also attack Republicans, in general, not just McCain. This is to ensure that, should the Republicans pull a switch just before the election, it won't do them any good. Tar McCain for being a Republican who toes the party line.

The organizing is good. The get-out-the-vote strategy is good. However it is not enough. These psychological factors have to be dealt with, or the rest of the effort could turn out to be in vain.

[IndyOp]

9. Are you watching any indicators other than polls?

If we keep our eyes on the polls and the TV ads then we are no better than the corporate media pundits who keeping missing the stories that matter because they think they'll know the news by talking with official sources...

Obama leads better than 3:1 in field offices
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/obama-leads-better-than-31-in-field.html

...and the map of Obama's offices does a much better job of matching the "tipping point" map...



Context on Battleground Spending
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/context-on-battleground-spending.html

Obama is investing more massively than any campaign in the history of American politics on the ground game. McCain is essentially not investing in ground. His early summer numbers of 20,000 phone calls nationwide for a whole month would be those of a single, low-budget House campaign.


Organizing Update
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/organizing-update.html

To the uninitiated, that may sound impressive. Led by Steve Hildebrand, the Obama camp has been tight-lipped about its own numbers, as Martin's piece notes. But the reality is that on Monday alone in just Ohio, without revealing my sources, the Obama campaign made 109,029 persuasion phone calls. From general experience, contact rates are about 25%, meaning that for every phone call or door knocked, about 1 in 4 voters gives you information about their support or about their party or what issues are most important to them in helping them make up their mind. In turn, this information re-loops into the voter file and flows downstream until it's the final GOTV push.

Let’s do some quick math. Martin’s reporting suggests to us based on that ratio that nationwide, in one week, the McCain campaign talked to approximately 81,000 voters. The Obama campaign talked to about 27,000 in one state in one night. If we make a reasonable guess that Ohio has something like one-fifteenth of Obama organizers and volunteers, that’d be 405,000 voters contacted in one night nationwide. In 7 days, that’s 2,835,000 voters contacted, compared to the McCain 81,000, a thirty-five-fold edge.

[DevonRex]

14. You know Depa will ignore that so he can keep quoting old polls. nt

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

10. You're right. The poll numbers don't look good for you.

John McCain's losing.

[MiniMe]

17. Wow, so you believe the polling that is being reported?

And what about the fact that they aren't polling cell phones, and many young people have only cell phones?

[IndyOp]

11. 20 million people seems high to me...

How do you get to that estimate when he's had "only" 2 million donors so far?

Also - a really important reason for the VP database is calling people on election day and getting them out to vote. They may also use it for fundraising immediately after the convention speech, but I bet that they use it sparingly after that so as not to tick off the people they are trying to reach.

:hi:

[Hamlette]

15. The best fund raiser is the McCain 7 house ad. I sent more money

because it is freaking McCain out and everyone is now talking about how rich and out of touch he is.

I want to encourage ads like that.

[barack the house]

18. It's such an edge of your eat moment, it's brilliant.

[JustAnotherGen]

19. I gave again

In that 24 hours! :-)