Gallup, 8/22: Obama Lags in Democratic Support

[highplainsdem]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109774/Obama-Lags-Democratic-Support.aspx

Obama Lags in Democratic Support
Democrats’ lead on party ID greater than Obama’s lead over McCain

by Lydia Saad and Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- As the national political conventions are poised to start, the party orientation of U.S. voters clearly favors the Democratic Party, similar to the pattern seen for the past five months. Among all national registered voters interviewed thus far in August for the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, 35% identify as Democrats compared with 28% who identify as Republicans. An additional 36% are independents.

The current 7-point Democratic advantage in party ID expands to 10 points when the party leanings of independents are taken into account. Fifty percent of U.S. registered voters identify with or lean to the Democratic Party and 40% are Republican or lean Republican.

This Democratic advantage contrasts with the close nature of the presidential contest between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain in monthly averages of the Obama vs. McCain horse race since March.

Although Obama has led by as many as 9 percentage points over McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day rolling averages, the results on a monthly basis show Obama averaging no better than a 3-point lead among registered voters in any month. This includes August (according to interviews from Aug. 1-19), during which Obama has led 46% to 43% (though in the past week, Obama has averaged just a 1-point advantage).

Gallup's most recent weekly aggregate, based on Aug. 11-17 data, found Obama up by an average of only 2 points over McCain, 45% to 43%. At the same time, voters' party preferences broke 35% Democratic and 28% Republican (with a 50% to 40% Democratic advantage on party identification, including leaners).

The reasons this is not translating into a stronger lead for Obama are twofold:

1. Although Democrats outnumber Republicans in the electorate, McCain receives the support of a greater share of his party base than does Obama.

Whereas 84% of Republicans polled from Aug. 11-17 say they will vote for McCain in November, only 79% of Democrats say they will vote for Obama. A similar gap in party loyalty has been seen each week since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June. Over this period, Obama's Democratic support has ranged from 78% to 82% while McCain's Republican support has ranged from 83% to 85%.

2. The race has been extremely close among the roughly 36% of voters who call themselves political independents.

Since early June, Obama and McCain have swapped the lead among independents, with neither ever achieving a very large lead. Overall, Obama has averaged just a 1-point lead over McCain among independents, and in interviews conducted Aug. 11-17, the two were tied at 42%.

-snip-

I'm sure some will tell me again that we don't need a unity ticket.

[book_worm]

1. Will you quit posting these when Obama comes out of the convention with a big boost?

[highplainsdem]

15. I've been posting news about the polls, whether it's good or bad.

The Gallup poll showing the 9 point lead Obama held briefly, for instance.

I find the polls interesting and the information is valuable.

And right now, this poll and others are showing we need a unity ticket.

Which probably has everything to do with the majority of Dems, and the majority of our delegates and superdelegates, feeling the same way.

It amazes me that here at DU, which is supposed to be DEMOCRATIC Underground rather than Anti-Clinton Underground, there's so much irrational refusal to consider the one ticket that can give us the best chance of beating McCain in November.

It shows how out of touch with Democratic reality this forum has become.

[NYC_SKP]

2. How very tiresome... sigh. nt

[mzmolly]

3. Obama "only leads by?" How much is he supposed to be ahead?

Good grief, I've never seen such negative spin for a FRONT RUNNER.

[redqueen]

4. And so eagerly and faithfully posted here by a select few.

Mmmhmm.

[rinsd]

6. Polling nonsense will be over post convention.

[rinsd]

5. OK. We don't need a unity ticket.

Once the convention is done, Hillary supporters realize their gambit of holding out to give Hillary political leverage is over and they will vote for Obama. Especially with Hillary herself leading that charge.

Hillary supporters really do care about this country and they will not allow McCain to become President by stubbornly not voting or protest voting for McCain.

Anyone saying different is not really a Democrat or Hillary supporter for that matter.

[highplainsdem]

9. We've had Obama supporters here say they wouldn't vote for Obama, their favorite, if Clinton were on

the ticket as his running mate. And I just had an Obama campaign activist here tell me the same thing.

Those people aren't really Democrats, either.

[rinsd]

12. Fine. You, as well as they, are acting like petulant children. A pox on both your houses.

[book_worm]

13. Oh come on! Why don't you look at the polls you are always posting

it's a minority of Hillary supporters who apparently need their asses kissed so they will vote for Obama over McCain even tho they generally agree with him on the issues. The NBC/WSJ Poll showed Obama leading by 3-pt over McCain and Hillary leading by 6. The difference? Obama supporters would vote for Hillary but a sizable minority of Hillary supporters aren't yet sure that they would vote for him. So stop this silliness about Obama supporters not willing to vote for her, it's HRC supporters who are keeping this close at this point.

[Beacool]

16. You got a cristal ball? n/t

[Diane R]

7. I think Obama/Biden, Obama/Bayh, Obama/Kaine, or Obama/anyone but Hillary, is a great unity ticket.

[blogslut]

8. LOL. Keep trying.

:rofl:

[jonestonesusa]

10. It's fair to look at polls.

But I would guess that historically, the numbers among Democrats for party loyalty are not as strong as Republicans, and even these numbers only show a hairsbreath difference between Dems and Repubs on their likely vote for the nominee. Democrats have a bigger tent and are not afraid to disagree with one another. A unity ticket may or may not increase party loyalty - I'm sure that the Obama campaign is looking at internal numbers on that matter, and is weighing the claim that Clinton brings that party unity. But it is certainly a disputable claim.

[Obamaniac]

11. Broken record...

Skip...skip!

Trust me, these dynamics will be completely erased after our convention. This is actually typical for Democratic candidates. Both Clinton and Gore got 20+% bumps in the polls after their respective conventions for exactly this reason: Democrats coming home. It will be no different for Obama.

Stop your bellyaching.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

14. I think the effect of your posts is the opposite of what you want.

:*

[Beacool]

17. It's Biden.

We won't find how this plays out until the polls after both conventions.

[scheming daemons]

18. highplainsdem.... once we get confirmation that it is NOT Clinton, we'll you stop this shit?

[otohara]

19. Unity Means Supporting Our Candidate

Unity does not mean blackmail, threats, vindictiveness and a wish to lose the election if he doesn't choose the candidate who hurled kitchen sinks at him during the primaries.