Veep Prediction (based on gossip): Sebelius

[blitzen]

So says my friend, who is somewhat more connected than us average DUers.

FYI, I'm not advocating her, since I don't know much about her. Just putting this up for the record, so I can say "my friend told you so" when/if it happens.

[Condem]

1. I'll bet you 50 bucks, blitzen.

[blitzen]

4. Hey, he's been known to be wrong before...

but if I were a bettin' man...

[cyberpj]

On the same topic, here's what my tech geek hubby sent me this morning:

Barack Obama chooses Kathleen Sebelius for Vice President
August 18, 2008
We have a credible lead that Barack Obama will be announcing Kathleen Sebelius for Vice President / VP.

Our sources work within an ad agency that is hired by the Obama campaign, and have noted that the vast majority of the discussions there are regarding material logistics in terms of Kathleen on the vice president ticket. Now until this is verified please file it as rumor, however our sources on this are not bad.. and have yet to be proven wrong.

Our source noted “It will get a women on the ticket that shares the same views as Obama” a reference to many of the Hillary supporters..

Then of course we had to do some research.

We held some general opinions prior to this little research project. One of them being that they wouldn’t have multiple domain providers, it becomes a hassle.. so the chances are they used the same registrar.

The Main BARACK OBAMA site is using Godaddy as their registrar and uses DomainControl.com as their DNS… pretty generic.. as anyone can pretty much do that…

Now were it get’s interesting is the other contenders…

Domain Name: BARACKOBAMA.COM
Registrar: GODADDY.COM, INC.
Name Server: NS05.DOMAINCONTROL.COM
Name Server: NS06.DOMAINCONTROL.COM

It appears OBAMASEBELIUS.COM is owned by the Obama Campaign, and the ‘hidden’ registration will turn into a website after the announcement. Our lead noted that a site is already being designed .. and advertising agencies are always full of leaks. Again file as rumor until verified…

We will compare the evidence we are allowed to show you without anyone getting fired.

continued at:
http://www.tribbleagency.com/?p=1747

[mcctatas]

3. There were variations on that theme about other candidates

today as well. Not knowing makes me crazy :crazy:

[cyberpj]

6. my own opinion: to choose a woman but not Hillary would not be a smart move right now.

It just feels like an immediately recognizable insult.

[PassingFair]

11. That is a sexist remark.

HRC is not the only woman in politics.

:crazy:

[cyberpj]

45. HOW, pray tell, is that sexist?! I said nothing against choosing a woman -

only that choosing any woman over Hillary would be a bad move at this time in politics.

For Christ's sake. I AM a woman. And some of us should stop seeing sexism where it doesn't exist.

[PassingFair]

69. Then why, pray tell, do you feel that Obama's choosing of Kathleen Sebelius

...would be an INSULT to HRC?

HRC has huge differences with
Obama, they will not make a
good team. Why SHOULDN'T he
choose Sebelius?

[cyberpj]

70. Because HRC so obviously wanted it very badly and if not the 1st woman Prez, she wanted 1st woman VP

It's a Clinton ego thing.
And don't tell me that's not true after she and Bill bullied their way into starring roles at the convention.

To The Clintons it's all about The Clintons, period.

[OhioBlue]

30. maybe if it was just to put a woman on the ticket

but she has been in the running longer than any of the other names mentioned. She stumped for him during the Ohio Primary and the Obama campaign was pitching her as a possible VP then. He chose her based on merit and compatibility long before the primary was over - so I have no idea how if he says, I've been working with Kathleen for many months and have long thought she was the best person for the position that HRC supporters could somehow spin that into - yeah, but she is a woman so you better go with your next pick and make it a man.

[Konza]

33. Kathleen has been in his corner for a long time

and he's been in hers for quite a while too. They are good friends. I still think it is a stretch to have her as VP, but she has definite political skills, and as a Kansan I'm amazed she has been able to pull off two effective terms here as governor. She is also smart as hell on the insurance industry and health care, having regulated the *&^% as Insurance commissioner. Her latest turn has been as a green governor in the last 3 years, winning props from the strangest of bedfellows.
And like I said, she knows politics like a monster, arguably better than Hillary, as it was Kathleen who urged Obama early on not to overlook the caucuses and smaller primaries out her in flyover country and plan for the Long March Campaign for delegates. Her reputation as a vote counter and political strategist is often overlooked because she comes from flyover country. If she were governor of Ohio or Virginia, or a Senator from New York she'd be a shoe-in.
But being from KS, she is probably considered irrelevant by the media boys..

On the down side, and I admittedly like her, she lacks foreign policy cred. If the campaign is focused on economic issues, the environment, health care, etc-domestic issues, she can be a serious asset.
If it is about the waarrr on terraaa, she will be a mistake.

[cyberpj]

46. I agree with you. My post was reflecting a fear of over-reaction by Hillary supporters. nt

[stranger81]

32. I just don't understand this argument.

What's the point of being a trailblazer if you're intent on pulling up the ladder behind you? What consequence does breaking the glass ceiling for women have if only HRC is the only woman entitled to benefit from that?

[cyberpj]

49. It wasn't my point that HRC should be the only one, I didn't make it clear I guess that I fear HRC

rabid supporters would blow this all out of proportion and make a huge deal of it which wouldn't help Obama right now no matter how qualified any other woman might be. And, I suspect HRC would be behind them, shouting just as loud.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

37. My thoughts exactly cyberpj

I fear that choosing Sebelius would be seen as a "poke in the eye" of disgruntled Hillary supporters, particularly those most likely to go over the edge and vote for McSame. I believe that Obama will either have to pick Hillary or another guy to at least avoid any major disasters with the former Hillary supporters although I suspect that they will probably be unhappy with any VP choice Obama makes except for Hillary (and even THAT might not satisfy them since they believe that she should've been the nominee in the first place, so.....?) My personal belief right now is that Obama has settled on Hillary.

[JVS]

54. That's the brilliance of it.

It's an in your face rejection that she has to grin and bear or she'll look like a hypocrite

[goodhue]

57. feels like a lame media meme perpetuated by folks who aren't female

but as a male what the hell do I know

[PassingFair]

8. I saw her speak yesterday....

the 'pukes will have a hard time trying to gauge
who to put up against her.

She will be a smart debater.

[SharonRB]

16. Hey, PF

I like her a lot, but I have to agree that if he picks a woman and it's not Hillary it could mean trouble with a lot of Hillary's people.

When we saw her Tuesday, did she look sincere when she said she's not looking for another job?

I'd still rather see Biden, but I'd be better with her than with Bayh or Kaine for sure.

[PassingFair]

23. Hillary's "people" should be angry if Obama picks a MAN...

isn't their argument about SEXISM?

:crazy:

If he picks Bayh, McCain will pick some
intellectual that will kick Bayh's ass.

...just like Cheney kicked Edward's ass
in the last go-around.

I don't know enough about Kaine...he seems
literate enough.

I'm no fan of Biden, what with his IWR
and bankruptcy votes, etc.

Sebelius appears to be the real deal.

(For the record, my 1st choice is Bob Graham)...

:hi:

[SharonRB]

27. I'm a little concerned about her lack of foreign policy experience,

but other than that, she really impresses me a lot.

I'm also not convinced that most of America is ready to break down two barriers in one shot.

[PassingFair]

38. This just in: there are rumors afoot that McC'aint has chosen Mittens....

ANY of Barack's colleagues, friends, or children
could take Romney down in a debate!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

29. You'd think Hillary would be happy to see a woman getting the nod.

[cyberpj]

52. Seriously? Are we thinking about the same Hillary? Clinton? nt

[proud2BlibKansan]

35. I don't think he will pick a woman

I think a black president is enough of a paradigm shift for America. So I think he will pick a white man.

[Muttocracy]

26. this has been debunked on DU at least 5 times already - purchase made long ago. nt

[mcctatas]

2. I had heard that from a friend who works for the DNC about

a week ago, but he emailed me yesterday and said that's not the newest rumor (in his office they are split between Biden and Bayh, but he is quick to point out that anyone who claims to actually know for sure is full of shit;) )

[MannyGoldstein]

5. I Agree - Best Tactical Move

1. Pulls in the female vote from middle
2. Knocks the "misogyny" wind out of the sails of The Clintons and their PUMAs.

[Condem]

9. Yeah, Manny

Let's piss off the Clinton people a little bit more.

[Colobo]

17. Let's trust Obama on his pick.

[MannyGoldstein]

20. Has Bill Endorsed Our Nominee Yet?

Feh.

[Colobo]

24. Hillary '12!

[book_worm]

I really like her, but don't think she would add much

[PassingFair]

10. Never underestimate a Kansas Populist.

Sometimes they will come out of NOWHERE!

[Olney Blue]

7. It won't be her. Please bookmark so you can tell your friend I told you so.

:P

[blitzen]

39. Okay, he has now retracted. But I'll still tell him that you told him so.

[cyberpj]

12. I think the problem is, NO ONE knows much about her. Not smart right now. nt

[democrat2thecore]

13. All contenders now know according to Fineman, we'll soon know

[thewiseguy]

15. If they know then we will know tomorrow morning

:)

If the story does not leak out tonight.

[AllentownJake]

14. There are 6 people who know

Outside of that group...no one knows shit.

[democrat2thecore]

21. According to Fineman the phone calls have gone out this evening

I believe he even said day before yesterday that one of the contenders told him that the Obama camp wanted to know how they could be reached on Thursday afternoon/evening. Good reporting.

[AllentownJake]

22. Than we'll get the text message in the morning

because people can't keep their mouth shuts once they are told they aren't it.

[nsd]

18. Sebelius is great but this would be a huge risk.

A ticket composed of a black man and a white woman? That might be overestimating how much history-making America is in the mood for.

A woman not named Clinton? The headlines after the announcement will mostly read: "Obama picks a woman other than Hillary." The media coverage of the convention will be dominated by: "Are Clinton delegates upset that Hillary was passed over for another woman?" Sebelius might as well change her name to Not-Hillary.

Kansas only has 6 electoral votes and is so deep red that, even with Sebelius on the ticket, it will be very hard to flip. She has roots in Ohio, but she left there in the early 1970s and her father retired from office more than 30 years ago. No way she really has pull there.

She's only been governor for 6 years. That's more than Kaine but it still gives Republicans a bigger target for their "inexperienced" attack. And she has no foreign policy experience. People aren't yet convinced that Obama himself has passed the "commander-in-chief test," to borrow Clinton's phrase. This pick wouldn't help.

[Thrill]

19. Not a chance. This is going to be a nasty campaign. Obama is going to go with Hillary or Biden

[mmonk]

25. She would be a good choice.

[Stop Cornyn]

28. God I hope so! PLEASE -- anyone other than a Washington DC career politician!!!

[goodhue]

56. amen

it is about change people

[Top Cat]

31. Way to much change for the American people

[goodhue]

59. too much change

bring it on

[Neecy]

34. they actually look good together...

I think he'll offer her a cabinet spot.

[Colobo]

36. I'm 24 and I think she's damn sexy.

[underpants]

40. *ahem* I am IN THE ROOM!!!!

:bounce:

[underpants]

41. Obama Sebelius-sounds like a condition or the med to fix it

just saying

[TexasObserver]

42. If he's going to pick a woman, she's hands down the one to pick.

But I don't think he will. It would be just one more excuse for the deadenders to wail about you know who not being the VP pick.

[Honeycombe8]

43. Sebelium? Who's that? :) (See the point? She won't be picked.) nt

[leftynyc]

44. I hope not - stupid choice

When your biggest drawback is the experience card, you don't name a VP that has no national recognition and no foreign policy experience. I'd be amazed if Sen Obama was this dumb.

[jonestonesusa]

55. With Sebelius, we Dems are having a hard time making a fair evaluation.

I posted some of this on a VP thread the other day, but here were my five reasons why I think Sebelius is the best candidate:

1) More experience in an executive capacity than Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Joe Biden and Obama himself.

2) Puts one more crack in the glass ceiling.

3) Not compromised by pro-Iraq votes.

4) It would be a gutsy pick.

5) The Dem ticket would have two intelligent, thoughtful, and forward looking candidates.

Since this is the Democratic party and not the Hillary party, I trust that we all would be able to appreciate a female candidate other than Hillary, especially when Sebelius has a proven record of success as a politician in a Red State, rather than in New York that is majority Democratic already.

I challenge the Sebelius naysayers to inform themselves about her record before dismissing her.

[goodhue]

58. good reasons!

intelligent, thoughtful and forward looking

[leftynyc]

60. Her being a woman is of no interest

to me (I am also a woman). I want the best candidate and the best ticket to beat the pubs. We simply cannot win with two candidates viewed as inexperienced on a national level and whether true or not, that's how it will be portrayed. My hope to G-d picks are Clark, Biden or Richardson.

[jonestonesusa]

61. I disagree on the gender issue...

I think it's extremely important that the leadership of our country bring in the experiences of a wider range of its citizens for decision making positions. Historically and now, the lack of a broad representation across gender, race, and ideas in our political class have cost us dearly. As the primary season shows, having more diverse faces among our leadership is a good way to show that power is not concentrated only among a small percentage of the country's people, and the change is inspiring to many who have been shut out of power to believe in our institutions and participate in them. That's a basic democratic principle that I hope we are all striving to live up to.

I also do not agree that Obama and Sebelius are inexperienced on a national level. Being a governor or a senator entails some of that experience working in national councils, working with the national party, and being informed about how national policy affects state interests.

Finally - in terms of foreign policy, I believe we have made quite a few mistakes in judgment in international affairs in the last two decades, and Biden at least is one culprit in some of those errors. I have more respect for Richardson, but do not know Clark's record as well, other than what was said in the primaries. I do have confidence in the judgment of an Obama/Sebelius ticket to work on foreign affairs issues - I am not convinced that "inexperience," so to speak, counts as much as judgment.

My challenge to you stands to inform yourself fully about Sebelius before judging her.

[leftynyc]

63. Don't kid yourself

Experience matters a great deal. There is no way the chimp would have even come close in 2000 without Darth Vader on the ticket. Right now, people view Sen Obama as inexperienced - it really doesn't matter whether it's true or not, that's the narrative and it wont change. Picking someone who is a national unknown from a state we wont take regardless is insane. I'm sure she is a very bright woman and any dem who can get elected in a state like Kansas is someone to watch but this simply is not her time. There is too much going on in the world to serve up two PERCEIVED inexperienced candidates.

As far as the gender issue, my heart and head would have loved to see a woman either first or second on the ticket but I just want the ticket that has the best chance of winning.

[jonestonesusa]

64. Let's look back at recent Dem. candidates with experience in mind.

Take a look at the election experiences of Democrats over the last 20 years. I posted it on the bottom.

Arguably, the only two Democrats who won were not national politicians (Carter, Clinton). They were both governors from a small and a mid-sized state.

The candidates with the most experience did not win the presidency (with due acknowledgment of election fraud that provided a margin of victory in 2000/2004): Kerry, Gore, Mondale, and McGovern did not do as well as Clinton and Carter, two of the least experienced.

Dukakis, a relative newcomer, took a bath in his election despite having the experienced Lloyd Bentsen on the ticket.

On the Republican side, two of the recent winners have been governors or relative political newbies (Bush II, Reagan, Eisenhower), while a couple of others have been Washington fixtures (Nixon, Bush I). Again, plenty of national figures have lost, some unknown figures have won.

Definitely an Obama-Sebelius ticket would have to fight against the accusations of inexperience. They will have to win that fight to win the presidency. But as the last few elections show, history has some evidence that new faces motivate voters, especially in a "change" election when the Dems have a significant financial advantage, an economy gone sour, an unpopular war, and a candidate that has the possibility of maximizing youth vote, urban vote, anti-Republican vote.



2004: Kerry, Edwards (lots of experience on top of the ticket, some on the bottom, Dem loss, sort of)
2000: Gore, Lieberman (plenty of experience, Dem loss, sort of)
1996: Clinton, Gore (famous win for the Dems)
1992: Clinton, Gore (arguably, not too much experience on top of the ticket)
1988: Dukakis, Bentsen (experience at the bottom, Dem loss)
1984: Mondale, Ferraro (experience on top, Dem loss)
1980: Carter, Mondale (Dem loss)
1976: Carter, Mondale (no national name recognition on top, Dem win)
1972: McGovern, Shriver (experience on top and bottom, Dem loss)
1968: Humphrey, Muskie (experience on top and bottom, Dem loss)

[leftynyc]

65. You''ve proven my point

Nowhere in those races were TWO inexperienced candidates served up - the reason for that is obvious. People are just starting to get to know who Barack Obama is - the governor of a state like Kansas (which I'm sure is lovely but hardly densely populated) brings nothing to the ticket. I think the only reason the chimp got close enough to steal 2000 was because he put darth on the ticket. It saved him from disaster. Let Governor Sebelius govern Kansas - the fact that a Dem got elected in that very red state is definitely something to watch. She's young and will have a future in this party. It's just not her time.

[jonestonesusa]

66. Briefly...

Since there wasn't an election with two "inexperienced" candidates in my whole list, we can't be sure of how such a ticket would do, not to mention that experience isn't the only factor in voter perception of the candidates. The quality of the campaign that the candidate runs, the financial advantage/disadvantage, the effectiveness in playing to the party base, independents, and crossover voters - the national mood and the state of the economy - all of these are additional factors to consider beyond just "experience."

Even with experience considered, the Democrats have won 3 elections out of 10, and Clinton/Carter had less experience than Bush I/Ford as well as less than the other Democratic losers on the list. Thinking conservatively about the experience issue didn't help Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, McGovern, or Humphrey. In 04, having a decorated Vietnam veteran with political experience didn't prevent him from getting swiftboated when campaigning against a privileged President's son who avoided the draft and partied rather than preparing for office. Look at all these cases where the candidate without national experience won - Clinton and Reagan are probably the best examples.

I'll leave our dialogue at this point, but I still stand by my view that Sebelius would make a strong VP candidate. Unfortunately, her record is not being viewed with objectivity even within our party, and plenty of Dems as well as Repugs would rather stand pat than genuinely seek new party leadership. We'll probably end up with one of the usual suspects on the ticket that have helped create the fine mess we're in now.

[leftynyc]

67. Perhaps you're right but

we are in such a precarious situation now in terms of world opinion and international affairs. Everyone realizes this, especially the independents who aren't going to give their vote to two PERCEIVED inexperienced people. While I do believe people are ready for change, there is only so far out of their comfort zone they're going to stray. Nice chatting with you. Have a great weekend and GO OBAMA!!!

[jonestonesusa]

68. Have a good weekend too...

:hi:

[bunnies]

47. Id like to think Obama is smarter than that.

He'd better be.

[Marrah_G]

48. Ewww

nothing else, just... ewwww.

[goodhue]

50. I agree, FWIW

eom

[goodhue]

53. oh, and I forgot to add that she rocks, for a moderate and all . . .

It would be a great choice.

[mystieus]

51. Best move Obama ever did, if true. :)

[barack the house]

62. There was a post that Obama had bought a site with her name I felt it was right when I heard it.