POLLS JUST IN: let's quit being all panicky for a while

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

We have four new national polls today, all with Obama in the lead.

Plus: Insider Advantage now has Obama closing to within 2% in red NC (and the crosstabs look really good here, with Obama carrying only about 3/4 of the African American vote. Past history indicates that can go up).

Plus: A Nevada paper now has Obama back in front in that purple state by a point.

Plus: new polls in Minnesota, PA, Maryland, and NH all show Obama still holding the key blues.

Plus: Obama's cut half of McCain's lead in OH already, according to Rasmussen. PPP says it's a dead heat.

At this point, it's reasonable to expect a solid 8-9 point national lead for Obama after the Democratic convention, to be cut to a 2-5% lead after the Republican convention. Note the polls of registered voters especially. Polls of likely voters often can underweight first-time voters or voters who did not vote in recent elections.

If (IF) his post-Democratic-convention bounce puts him 11-12% or better in front nationally, there will be little hope the republican convention can bring the race back to its current shape. That's when the real brawling will start.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html