POLL of 19 Battleground States (14 of which Chimpy won): Obama 46, McCain 45

[jefferson_dem]

Morning Edition, August 21, 2008 · An NPR poll of likely voters in 19 battleground states finds about half consider Illinois Sen. Barack Obama too risky, while Arizona Sen. John McCain ranks behind Obama on independence.



The poll results reveal voter doubts about both candidates' presidential qualities that may explain why neither seems to be able to break through a kind of ceiling this summer. In the national head-to-head matchups, Obama can't seem to break 50 percent, and McCain is stuck somewhere in the low to mid 40s.

The poll, conducted Aug. 12-14 by a bipartisan team of pollsters, surveyed voters in 19 states where the polling shows the race is very close or where the candidates have decided to make major investments of time and money, says Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg.

"It's a very different map than what we've looked at in the past. We're looking at states like Alaska and Georgia that are odd places for those of us who have been stuck in the Electoral College map of the polarized American politics," Greenberg says.

It's hard to imagine that some of these historically red states, such as Alaska, Georgia or North Dakota, will still be in play in November. But for now, Obama has managed to make them competitive, says Republican pollster Glen Bolger.

"I think it's pretty clear that Obama has his own set of strengths and his own set of weaknesses that make his candidacy not just historical but also fairly unique," Bolger says.
"I think it's pretty clear that Obama has his own set of strengths and his own set of weaknesses that make his candidacy not just historical but also fairly unique," Bolger says.

President Bush won 14 of these 19 states in 2004. The fact that four years later Obama is tied in this select landscape with Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona is remarkable for Democrats. But Bolger points out that Obama compared poorly with McCain on a number of presidential attributes in the poll.

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http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93812738

[defendandprotect]

1. I'd be careful about suggesting that Bush ever "won" anything . . . !!!

[Qutzupalotl]

2. I'm waiting for the concerned posters to say

"If Obama doesn't win the election by five points it doesn't count!!"

[the other one]

3. Exit polls were all wrong in those states

beyond the margin of error.

I'd say 5% is not a big enough lead for Obama. Better make it 25%