QUICK: Give me 5 good reasons not to panic!

[MrModerate]

Regardless of the accuracy of polls, we've got a plurality moving the wrong way. McCain is still a decrepit, angry, Bush-apologist fuckwad, but way too many of those polled seem as if they'll vote for him anyway. Saddleback showed him as a fool and a knee-jerk asshole, but it gave him a bump. Obama went to Europe and put in a solid performance McCain could never equal, and McCain got a bump. McCain breaks wind in public and he gets a bump. Are you tellin' me that the ghost of Charlton Heston is really enough to change voters' minds?

ARE MY FELLOW AMERICANS FUCKIN' CRAZY?

Help. Cogent reasons why this isn't as scary as it appears to be.

[Eurobabe]

1. 50% of them are certifiable yes

that's why I left the country. :hi:

[endthewar]

7. You realize that Bush is better able to tap your phone when you leave the USA, right?

Probably hacking your internet right now too. :rofl:

[MrModerate]

11. I never discus "secret stuff" over the phone.

I've adopted the foolproof tactic of tatooing seditious messages on those body parts of committed volunteers that are usually covered by hair. It's painful (and has a somewhate deleterious effect on their future family life), but they're almost maniacally committed to the Cause.

[Eurobabe]

36. I don't need to worry about that shit

VoIP phone. And my country has strict Datenschutz Gesetzt. Danke!

[LARED]

2. IMO, you have good reasons to panic.

When panicking I like to run around in a circle and scream like a little girl. It changes nothing of course, but I always feel better.

[Naturyl]

3. Go ahead and panic...

But just don't quit. When you're done panicking, there will be plenty of time to resume supporting our nominee.

[endthewar]

4. McCain is VASTLY outspending Obama right now

even though Obama has more money. Bottom line is money wins elections, plain and simple. Once McCain is on his general election stipend, the money spending situation will be reversed. Also, McCain is investing in TV ads in a higher proportion than Obama, who is investing in a solid ground game. McCain's money will give him a temporary boost now while Obama's investment will yield dividends in the future.

Why don't you look at the poll internals instead of just what the lead is? In the NBC poll, only 51% of Hillary supporters chose Obama in that poll. Do you really think that number will be the same in November? Even with Hillary on the stump in rural PA and OH? Seriously? Also, McCain is still behind, so he needs to push that number lower.

Stop being a drama queen like the MSM pundits. Obama will get his Convention bounce of a couple of points and then you'll be able to calm your nerves temporarily, so your fix is on the way.

[cboy4]

6. Actually the race should not even be this close right now.

It's ridiculous.

[endthewar]

8. Breaking news: Half of this country are Republicans

I hope you sat down before reading that. :rofl:

[cboy4]

10. Right, and what happened in 2006, when half the country

was Republicans?

Who won that night in Virginia and Montana and Missouri?

I'm surprised you haven't thrown in the towel if you think the election is going to be close because the country is divided.

Because if that's true, my money is on the Republicans to swift boat their way to another "win."

[endthewar]

12. Breaking news: Obama is ahead

You might be betting on the Republicans to win, but I'm not. Traitor.

[endthewar]

15. deleted

[endthewar]

18. 3 months later and you still haven't changed your tune

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5880280&mesg_id=5880280

[cboy4]

21. That was one of my better posts.

And why should I change my tune?

It's accurate.

[Name removed]

22. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[10 Year Freeper]

38. Certain

It's certain the GOP will Swift-boat the democratic nominee. They will go after the character of every nominee for the forseeable future. It works.

McCain has a huge advantage here and Steve Schmit is effectively exploiting it. McCain has defined himself, and been defined by the media for 25 years. Anyone who goes after that pre-built image will be seen as anti-american.

Obama is basically unknown to the vast majority of the electorate.

Once Hillary and Biden opened the box...McCain was able to sieze the themes.

You'll hear a great deal about William Ayres, Jeremiah Wright and Tony Rezko over the next 2.5 months. The airwaves will be FULL of those names, with Obama's name and image directly adjacent.

The GOP theme will be: Taxes. Can't count on Obama to protect your children from a hostile world. Missle Defense. Bigger military. Closet Commie. Corrupt. America hater. Not like you...

Obama's challenge is greater than any democrat in the last 40 years.

On the plus side, he gives a better speech than any democrat since 1932. The GOP is widely hated by 1/2 of the electorate. The other half is luke-warm to their candidate (McCain).

Anyone who believed Obama would walk into the White House unopposed was smoking the REALLY good shit.

[cboy4]

44. And you'll see lots of ads of McCain hugging George Bush,

you'll see ads showing little boys on swings dissolving into 18 year old going to Iraq for at least 100 years, which McCain is on record as supporting.

And if you think Kerry was a flip-flopper, just wait until they start listing all of the positions McCain has flipped out .. the most recent, of course, being in favor now of off shore oil drilling.

I'd like to see the Democrats do some swiftboating of their own, because you're right, the GOP will be up to its usual crooked bag of tricks.

[MrModerate]

13. Supposedly not so . . . the proportion of the putative electorate . . .

Identifying themselves as Dems vs 'Licans has been lopsided in our favor for more than a year. What happened?

[MrModerate]

14. Self-Delete. Dupe

[endthewar]

16. Conservatives have always pretended to be independents

Look no further than Lou Dobbs and Bill Orally. Both claim to be independent, yet it's clear to EVERYBODY that they aren't.

[MrModerate]

17. According to CNN (I know, I know) Obama outspent McCain

5 to 3 over the last several weeks.

Aside from that, you gave me two of my five reasons. Thanks.

[endthewar]

20. Here are some links

McCain outspending Obama in battleground states: http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/ad_buyer_mccain_outspending_ob.php

McCain outspent Obama in June: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/07/21/mccain_outspent_obama_in_june.html

McCain outspends Obama in Olympic ads: http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0533088520080805

Basically, McCain is outspending him where it counts in terms of TV ads, whereas Obama is busy building his ground forces. The TV ads give a temporary boost now but the investments Obama is making won't show up now but will show up later. The worst thing Obama could have done is panic like Hillary did right before the PA primary. He knows he'll get a Convention bounce, so no need to waste all of his money now. The MSM wants a horse race. That's why they spent an entire month pastorbating on Wright, because they love racial tensions and a close election. In all honesty, it's the Republican Party that is in disarray. The media may not be covering it, but the Ron Paul factor is being ignored. It will be HUGE in states like PA and NV among others. Ron Paul got 100,000 votes in PA, and those supporters wouldn't be caught dead voting for McCain. Ron Paul exposed McCain as a fraud to them. The Republican Party "canceled" their Nevada state convention because Ron Paul was getting too much support. FOX News and the Republican Party expected Ron Paul to just go quietly into the night, but he isn't. People are running away from the Republican Convention in Minneapolis whereas Ron Paul had to get a bigger venue for his Convention in the same city.

[MrModerate]

Ok, that's reasons three and four . . . n/t

[cboy4]

5. Our best hope is for McCain to pick Loserman,

You will see Republican heads explode from coast to coast.

[endthewar]

9. It's a political headfake

Put Lieberman and Ridge in front of the conservative base and then when he chooses someone like Romney they'll forget all about how Romney use to be pro-choice.

[Norrin Radd]

19. Picture how he'll look and sound next to Obama in the debates.

Think Dole, but even more so.

[donheld]

23. Picture how Kerry looked next to Bushie

What good did that do?

[MrModerate]

I.Will.Never.Understand.That

Bush was moronic and uncharming. WTF did the electorate see that I never did?

[harun]

31. Me either. Afterwards I wondered why ever have debates if

one was going to look like an immature moron and the public was still going to vote for them, what's the point?

[Norrin Radd]

34. As I recall, the press, political cartoonists, and comedians

constantly mocked Kerry's appearance and demeanor, comparing him to Frankenstein's monster.

[bunkerbuster1]

39. "You didn't really see what you thought you saw."

Let us brilliant right-wing pundits explain that Bush actually performed masterfully. See! our token liberal agrees!

And now for our next story--is Ter-RAY-suh, like, a total bitch?

[MrModerate]

24. OK, that's five. Thanks. n/t

[10 Year Freeper]

42. Debates

McCain is likely to show well in the debates. It's a format (impromptu, un-scripted) where he excels.

I don't think Obama did well in the democratic debates. It appeared to this outsider that Hillary wiped the floor with him.

The Obama campaign needs to negotiate a format in at least two of the debates that allows him to speak on broad themes...eloquently.

A format that asks direct questions and expects direct answers favors McCain, a master of the one-liner.

I cite the Saddleback Jesus show as an example.

[saltpoint]

25. I don't think voters ordinarily vote with much emphasis on who is the veep

candidate except in this election, where regarding the Pukes' ticket, it's a major factor.

IMO I don't think a lot of people wll vote for McCain, who looks and sounds like he may croak at any moment, even if his veep nom is more vigorous, in part because there's a natural negative reaction to Death and the idea of voting itself is an endorsement of some kind of Future.

This works against McCain in a big way because his veep options are all dull as pitch or floridly psychotic.

[quaker bill]

26. It is August

Recall that "one does not roll a new product out in August". As the Bushies so aptly demonstrated, if you want maximum effect on election day, you roll out the product in September.

It is not a matter of fighting back, it is timing when to throw your best punches. You do not throw your best punches in August. This causes you to peak too soon. In this contest, you want to peak on November 3, sometime between supper and bedtime. You do not want to peak in August or September. When you look at the races we have lost, there is a single characteristic that they all share. Each hit the peak far too early.

This is why the pace has been slowing over the last several weeks. Nothing about this is accidental. Hillary thought this sort of stuff was accidental and took momentary lags as a sign of her progress, however as it turned out, no progress had been made at all. McCain is thnking that he is making progress, he is equally incorrect.

Like a good boxer, you do the body shots first (put the structure and ground work in), then you go for the head to finish the match. Watch and learn.

[stray cat]

27. Nothing wrong with panic if it mobilizes the base - and makes people thinks of a McCain presidency

Maybe its times the referendem switched to does American really want a McCain presidency instead of is Obama ready....

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

28. Here we go...

1) Look at polls from previous elections. Unless there's a massive lead one way or ther other, polls don't count until October.

2) If you're going to look at polls, consider that they don't poll cell phones, who owners skew much younger and who favor Obama by double digits.

3) Obama's ground game vs. McCain's is the equivalent of the New England Patriots vs. your kid's Pop Warner League team.

4) They haven't debated head-to-head yet. Obama will mop the floor with him.

5) Not even Bush voters are dumb enough to vote for McCain.

[MadrasT]

41. Great reasons

except for #5. I don't buy that one. They are that freakin' dumb. Well maybe not all of 'em. But lots of 'em. :eyes:

:hi: <--- added friendly waving guy on edit.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

29. # 1 McCain wants to draft you!

McCain can't remember one day form the next
McCain is soaked in oil - Exxon John
McCain Cahoots with Abramoff and other nasty lobbyists and crooks
McCain does't understand the economy (how can this man be incharge)
McCain is Bush period

and there's a lot more than 5

[MrModerate]

45. I know why McCain *shouldn't* be president . . .

My question is, why does anyone think he *should?*

[northofdenali]

30. Just a few seconds ago, a friend who is visiting for the night

who is registered nonpartisan here, said he cannot conceive of anyone being stupid enough to vote for McCain. "We're in a stupid war for nonexistent reasons, the asshole wants a draft and to stay at war for 100 years? Who'd vote for an idiot like that?"

My friend usually votes R - mainly because up here, if you don't, you don't have a candidate viable for office. He's a sharp guy, and says that he and most of his fellow union members (IBEW) are in agreement about McCain - the man is certifiable.

My friend is pretty non-political, smart enough to grasp the issues but not like I am about really knowing a candidate - yet this is his assessment.

Yes, future President Obama - there IS a strong current of hope and change, even in the reddest of red states.

[Honeycombe8]

32. I'm with you on this. I'm a bit worried. Obama should be comfortably ahead.

A bump from the evangelical interview is, I think, what we're seeing.

Still....it's moving the wrong direction, and they shouldn't even be close, given that most people say they are FOR a Democrat over 60%. But when Obama is pinned to the party, that # drops. (BTW, it was this way for all the Dem. candidates, incl. Clinton. It's only over 60% for some generic Dem. candidate.)

[JoshDem]

33. I Am More Than a Bit Worried

Obama running a poor campaign.

Losing momentum in the national polls and the toss up states.

He needs to change the dynamic of the race by announcing Hillary or Gore as his running mate.

[10 Year Freeper]

43. Campaign

You are right that Obama is running a poor campaign. He should be ahead by AT LEAST 10% given the dynamics of this race.

He has ALREADY allowed the GOP to define him. That definition will stick unless he rolls up his sleeves and WORKS HARD...I suggest town meetings in RED STATES...3-5 per week.

Obama MUST turn the image which has already been created.

[slackmaster]

35. (SLAP!)

Snap out of it!

Do you need five more? I've got 'em right here for you.

[Abacus]

37. A few reasons come to mind

1) I think that McCain's Saddleback performance probably got him some evangelical voters that might have otherwise stayed home, but I think it also will cost him some undecideds.

2) As another poster mentioned, the last two weeks have been nearly custom tailored for McCain, particularly the Georgia-Russia conflict and Obama's vacation.

3) I think McCain's decision to go sharply negative will ultimately backfire the same way it did for Hillary. He'll likely bring Obama's favorables down, but increase his unfavorables at the same time. Unfavorable opinions are more difficult to change, imo.

4) My EV tally is showing improvement for Obama amongst undecideds. Two weeks ago when his numbers started heading consistently south, he was earning about 42% of the undecideds, same as he'd previously been earning, but the narrowing poll margins made it enough to flip states for McCain. Within the past few days, Obama's undecided take has increased six points to 48% and my tally is showing Michigan and Ohio both within one point of flipping back for Obama. This reversal is perfectly timed for the convention and VP pick.

5) Our complacency is gone -- I think we're going to see some of the energy back that won Obama the primaries to begin with.

[Marrah_G]

40. The owl has flown over the moon.

There is the only reason you need!

Now- simmer down and have a :beer: .... everything will be okay.

[Erin Elizabeth]

46. I'll give you one good solid reason.

Polls this far out from the event are soooooo unreliable.