Yes, I'm worried about Obama's chances. Sue me.

[PresidentObama]

He wasn't my first choice for President, John Edwards was.

I didn't vote him in the primary, I voted for Hillary Clinton.

But Senator Obama is our nominee, and thus I support him.

In the beginning, when I decided to support hin, I was thrilled with him and his campaign. I thought they had dominated the debate, controlled the day-to-day news cycles, and kept focused and on message. Barack Obama entered the General Election looking Presidential and likeable. McCain? Once the dust had settled on the Hillary/Obama primary contest, he was struggling to get his whole party on board and was way behind. His campaign didn't know how to properly come after Obama, they didn't know how to throw a punch and for it to land it's target.

Then it got Karl Roves buddy. Now the McCain campaign has gone negative, and going negative works. Kerry's lead in 2004 was crushed by Swift Boat attacks and negative attacks from the Bush-Cheney campaign, the RNC and various 527 groups like the SBVT. McCain is borrowing the Rove playbook to use negative campaigning to paint his opponent. Remember, 2004? Kerry was painted as a flip-flopper, elitist, out of touch and weak. They beat into the American peoples heads in a way that they believed it, bought into it, and it worked better than Rove could ever have imagined. Fast forward to 2008, and they're using the strategy against Obama. He's not patriotic, inexperienced, elitist, out of touch, a celebrity. Have the American people learned the lessons from 2004? November will tell, but it's got me nervous.

Go to Electoral-Vote.com and take a look....

Wasn't it just a month ago when Obama was leading the electoral map by a considerable amount?

Now it's 264-261 with Obama leading by THREE electoral votes and NEITHER candidate at the 270 marker.

Virginia, once seen as a leaning Obama state, is tied. Indiana, which polls showed Obama making serious ground, has McCain six points ahead. Missouri, the battleground state with an unpopular Republican governor, Obama is behind. Ohio and Florida are leaning towards McCain. Colorado, like VA was seen as leaning Obama, is back leaning McCain.

Electoral-Vote had this to say:

"For the first time since mid-May, Obama is now below the 270 electoral votes needed to win. He is behind in almost all the swing states (Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada) and tied in Virginia. He is ahead in Iowa and New Mexico, but these are seem to be fairly solid for him and may not be seen as swing states any more."

Obama now leads McCain in national polls, according to the CNN poll of polls, by one point.

In mid-July, he lead by eight points. Nearly double digits.

Now? It's virtually tied. McCain is running on the same failed policies as George W. Bush, Democrats are strongly favored among voters right now, and the country is seen as going down the wrong direction by margin not seen since 1992 when Clinton won. And yet, Obama is barely inching ahead of McCain? Barely?

It gets worse...

For the first time since May, McCain leads Obama. Not by one, or two. By FIVE.

"We can now definitely say that Senator John McCain has a serious chance of winning the elections in November; according to the latest Zogby/Reuters poll, he has opened a lead of 5%. That’s for the first time in months that McCain has taken such a lead. Better; it’s for the first time this campaign."

http://poligazette.com/2008/08/20/mccain-leads-obama-by-five-points/

During the summer campaign, Dukakis had a 17 point lead. Kerry was beating Bush this time in 2004.

And Obama is barely leading? In one poll, he's behind five points?

I'm sorry, but I'm worried. Flame me, attack me. Who care, really? My party is at stake, and yeah--I'm worried.

My question is this: How is Obama going to close the deal?

How is he going to prove his critics wrong, and his supporters right?

I'm damn worried that my party is going into November for another loss.

If you're worried and TIRED of being attacked by DUers for it, recommend this thread.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

1. STOP right there!

[PresidentObama]

4. Nope n/t

[Rosa Luxemburg]

25. OBAMA is going to win....repeat after me....OBAMA is going to be President!

[PresidentObama]

30. Brainwashing won't win an election. Realistically.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

59. you have to get out there

how many Dems have you registered to vote?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

26. OBAMA is going to win....repeat after me....OBAMA is going to be President!

[Kablooie]

83. KERRY is going to win..repeat after me...KERRY is going to be President!

Uh... who?

[TreasonousBastard]

2. Nobody ever got anything by worrying about it.

[PresidentObama]

5. Tell that to John Kerry n/t

[ProSense]

9. What does that mean? n/t

[PresidentObama]

11. Kerry should have won easily. His campaign was ran poorly, and was mismanaged.

I love John Kerry.

His campaign, though? It sucked.

Bob Shrum was an idiot. Mary Beth Cahill? Nice lady, not so great as campaign manager.

Candidate rocked. Campaign? Not so much.

[ProSense]

23. Keep telling yourself that.

Kerry lost Ohio by 118,000 votes. There were nearly 400,000 black votes suppressed (as determined by every report from Conyers' to Carter-Baker). As a result, Bush got 11 percent of the black vote in Ohio, 3 percent higher than the national average in that election.

That doesn't include the machine errors and other election tampering. All Kerry needed was 60,000 votes to shift from Bush to win.

If you're going to use 2004 as an indication of what could happen in 2008, then you're assuming the Republicans will employ the same tactics. Otherwise, there is no comparison.

"His campaign was ran poorly, and was mismanaged."

BS!

The worst mismanaged campaign, with a history making $31 million debt, belongs to Hillary.

[PresidentObama]

33. Kerry and Clinton was two of the same: Great candidates, horrible campaigns.

You're right, Clinton's was worse.

But hey, they both were pretty bad.

And I hated to see both of them lose.

NOW, can we talk about McCain and Obama? Or do you still have nothing to say about my OP?

[movonne]

35. I believe that it was stolen for Kerry just as it was stolen from Gore, and

the only way mc cain will win is it being stolen again...

[beachmom]

44. Actually, that is not true at all. Bush remained around 50% approval

rating all year, AND he was a war time encumbent president. 2004 was an uphill battle from the get go. Had Kerry pulled it off, it would have been a major upset. The fact that he came close is due to his exemplary performance debating Bush three times.

The reason why liberals can't understand these basic facts of 2004 is that they were blinded by their abhorrence of George W. Bush, so that they couldn't believe other people liked him. Well, half the country DID like him at that time, and he didn't start becoming unpopular until he tried to privatize social security and his humiliating lack of response in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. THAT was 2005.

2004 was not our cycle; I think 2008 will be. Look for a 5 - 10 point bounce out of the convention. The timing is completely wrong from last time anyway. The negative attacks have started (but please, there was an 11 point switch in 2004 from when the SBVT attacks started in earnest AND the GOP convention, which Kerry then took the majority of those points back after the debates), BUT we haven't had a convention yet. So no convention bounce yet plus the attacks are coming early in the midst of a lull, and that is why the polls are what they are at the moment. I don't see them staying that way.

[earth mom]

99. Bullshit. Few ever liked *. * LOST TWO ELECTIONS aka STOLE TWO ELECTIONS

with the help of his buddies.

And btw, I take offense how you use the word "liberals" like it's some kind of slur. :wtf:

[blm]

90. BULLSHIT corpmedia spin you're spreading. Why did BushInc work for 4yrs to steal that election if

if the campaign was so bad? Keep repeating the corpmedia lies - you let election fraud off the hook and cover up for the corpmedia's complicity in that stolen election when they refused to broadcast Kerry's counter to the swifts and his challenges to Bush.

What happened to your sense of fairness and honesty?

[movonne]

I was also for Edwards...but look where we would be had we made

him the nominee...

[Island Blue]

3. Aren't you glad your first choice didn't win?

We would have really been screwn.

[PresidentObama]

6. Classic way to avoid the topic at hand, change the subject.

[ProSense]

10. Your second choice didn't win either n/t

[PresidentObama]

14. I see you haven't discussed one point made in the OP, that's because you can't.

Truth bites.

Some of us fail to accept it. Others of us try and do something about it, instead of blindly pretending everything is ok until it blows up in our face--again.

[Erin Elizabeth]

16. Ok well you brought up the fact that your first choice was

Edwards and you voted for Clinton. If that was so completely immaterial, why mention it at all?

[PresidentObama]

19. When it's used as a dig towards me to avoid talking about the OP, then yeah...I'm going call a foul.

It's funny that they can't debate anything other than say "Na-Na your candidate lost"

[blm]

91. I did - your OP repeats corpmedia REVISIONISM of 2004 to make its point. Attack the media complicity

for a change because that is the true obstacle to any Democrat's campaign. Instead you choose to further corpmedia's lies and revisionism. THAT is what I don't understand about your postings this past year.

[DJ13]

7. Dont worry, Obama knows how to deal with those GOP flockers

[PresidentObama]

8. LOL great picture n/t

[flamingdem]

12. Cool sheepbot! I'm snagging him nt

[scheming daemons]

13. Let me know how much you're worth, and I'll sue you...

Dukakis.... bad comparison. Bush was a sitting vice president, we were at peace, and the economy was doing reasonably well.

2004 and Kerry.... bad comparison. Bush was a sitting president, in a time of war, and Kerry would've won if Osama bin Laden didn't pop up in the final days.


You want an election to compare this two? 1980... in reverse

Stagflation
Diminished standing in the world
Economic uncertainty
Gas crisis
Unpopular President

Washington outsider running on a platform of restoring America's standing. Many afraid that he's too naive in foreign policy. People from other party saying his too "on the fringe". Polls tight all summer, as many didn't like the incumbent, but were "worried" about the challenger.


Obama will beat McCain in the same manner that Reagan beat Carter.




You want another election that is similar? 1992. At this point, Bill Clinton was running THIRD, behind Bush and Perot. Many in the party thought the "man from Hope" was a bust and that the Dems made a serious mistake in nominating him. You know the rest of the story.



EVERY ELECTION IS DIFFERENT.... but if you are going to compare, why are you picking 1988 and 2004? 1980 and 1992 are more historically similar.

[PresidentObama]

17. Nothing about Obama's victory, if he wins, will be like Reagans in 1980.

I strongly disagree with you there.

[scheming daemons]

20. As far as the sea change in policy from one end of the spectrum to the other, it will be

EXACTLY the same.

Just in the other direction.

[eridani]

81. And the fact that people actually believed that "Osama" popped up

There is a strong possibility that the video is fake.

We still have an uphill climb due to voter suppression and the MSM.

[Erin Elizabeth]

15. I can see what the problem is.

You're looking at polls. In August. For an election that's in early November. Polls that have a small sample size. Polls that mean absolutely diddly this far out.

Stop looking at polls. Learn to make a mean margarita. Or read a classic novel you've never read and always meant to. Obama has what it takes and he'll be fine.

Start looking at polls again about two weeks before the election if you really want to. That's the earliest they have any significance.

Or better yet, register people to vote and volunteer for Obama's campaign if you aren't already. Then watch the only poll that really counts--the actual votes.

[PresidentObama]

21. I guess I, the media, the Obama and McCain campaigns should stop looking at polls.

Polls reflect trends.

The trend seems to be the race is tightening, and things for the first time are looking hopeful for McCain.

That shouldn't be.

[Erin Elizabeth]

31. Polls reflect SQUAT this far out.

Trends, my ass. Look at the damn sample sizes on those polls. Those polls have such power over you and others who give them that power, when really they are insignificant THIS FAR OUT from the actual event.

Imagine it--they are asking people at random--they aren't all political geeks like people on DU. They're people who maybe haven't given half a thought to who they're going to vote for, so they repeat one of the names back to the questioner and get off the phone.

THAT'S what you're stressing out over. Think about it.

And I'd say all these same things if they showed Obama at 80% and McCain at 20%. They're bunk this far from the vote.

[liberalmuse]

18. I'm an Obama supporter, and I'm worried, too.

You're being a realist. Yeah, that Zogby poll threw me for a loop, too, because as I remember, Zogby has always been the most accurate poll. I don't know if that's true these days, because I haven't seen a Zogby in awhile, but it was the one that most consistently resembled the end result. And I can't stop typing the word, 'poll' in my posts. I think it's PTSD. I can't live with McCain, so the poll results today are unacceptable. (Sorry, that's a piss poor argument, but that's all I can manage. I'm just to fucking terrified right now.)

[mvd]

28. Here's some comfort

I saw nothing in Zogby's poll that would indicate it is a better poll than the ones showing Obama ahead. No big secret in methodology. All he really has to go on is experience. He often can get the margin correct, but not the winner. And we know his last minute predictions in 2004 weren't so accurate.

[totodeinhere]

62. Zogby predicted a Kerry win in 2004, and guess what, he was right.

The only thing he failed to predict correctly was that the pukes would steal it from Kerry.

So yes, I'm worried when Zogby has McCain up by five points.

[beachmom]

64. Uh, there are problems with Zogby

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_loopy_zogby_polls.php

The "Loopy" Zogby Polls

It's noise, folks.

[totodeinhere]

65. You failed to mention this line from the article you linked to.

Still, his last pre-election polls often come close to the actual election results,

[mvd]

67. He wasn't right in the margins or winners for all the states

I remember being so happy seeing his final state polls. I don't worry about an outlier. Zogby doesn't have THAT great a reputation.

[mvd]

69. Around this time, he had Kerry winning

Then he had them trading places. I don't think he was great this far out:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[beachmom]

50. Actually, Zogby predicted CONFIDENTLY that Kerry would win in 2004.

Zogby was the worst of the polling outfits during the primaries this year.

Sorry, but a Zogby poll should be ignored. Plus there are more recent polls than Zogby by polling outfits with better track records that show Obama still ahead.

[CrispyQ]

94. I'm sending this to everyone I know!

Most people that I know are more worried about the economy than terrorists. This is perfect.

Thanks!

on edit: I just finished reading Lee Iacocca's book, "Where Have All the Leaders Gone?" & he comments that since conservatives call liberals "tax & spend liberals" & it's time the liberals started calling the conservatives "tax cut & spend conservatives." Zang! :thumbsup:

[Robeson]

101. Great cartoon...

...:thumbsup:

[WeDidIt]

22. EXCELLENT!!! BE WORRIED!!! BE VERY WORRIED!!!!!

GET OUT THERE! WORK!

You're beginning to get a bit of the feeling we Obama supporters have had since that February day in Springfield last year, and that's good!

Barack is the underdog until he's sitting in the Oval Office.

--Michelle Obama

[PresidentObama]

27. Thank you!! Exactly, we shouldn't take ANYTHING for granted.

I'm sick of the attitude of some DUers that this will be a landslide, and we should sit back and relax.

[Erin Elizabeth]

34. I may have suggested you relax, but I also suggested you

get out there and volunteer for his campaign. (And never did I suggest anywhere that this would be a landslide.)

Handwringing and looking at daily polls doesn't help anyone or anything.

[MessiahRp]

96. No offense but it's Obama who has to make the changes to his campaign that will change poll numbers

You can have every Democrat on Earth out and speaking on behalf of the guy but most people will only base their decision to vote for or against him based on what HE does.

When he continually panders to the right (going to an evangelical church and alienating all non-Christians in a faith forum, FISA bill, etc) he loses the people that by a 60-40 or even 70-30 clip are now this nation's majority.

Whether or not they call themselves Democrat by name, the vast majority of Americans poll with Democrats on every major issue from Roe V Wade to Foreign Policy to ending the Iraq War, the Economy and the Environment.

Yet just as Kerry's dumbass advisors had him do, Obama himself is pandering to the right. Oh let's not kid ourselves here... it's not the center he panders to for Independent vote because a) the media has shifted the political spectrum to make the center actually center-right, and b) he is playing on their field by going after their issues.

Obama's too concerned with this pie in the sky notion that we can somehow swing evangelicals and flip a ton of red states. The bottom line is Republicans vote hard party line and no matter their disgust with one of their candidate's stances on an issue or two, they always fall in line around election time. They are the virtual definition of lockstep.

However Democrats, Progressives and Liberals are intelligent and DO NOT WORK THIS WAY. So taking all of us for granted and always leaning to the right while not sending people clamoring for Nader or McKinney... will keep a lot of people home.

Obama needs to stop leaning to the right for unwinnable voters (and stop assuming all Independents have Republican values) and he needs to take the fucking gloves off and fight back hard. He needs to win this thing and being buddy-buddy with the enemy that has no problem tearing you down and smearing you hard is NOT going to do it.

Rp

[madfloridian]

24. Here's how it's shaping up. Cartoon

Because the media is hyping McCain, attacking Obama, and making the Clintons sound necessary to his win. They are not.

[PresidentObama]

37. The Clintons have nothing to do with my OP, or the content of the OP.

Thanks!

[laugle]

47. Some people just

don't like facts. On well......we have a convention and 3 debates to go, anything could happen.........time will tell.........

[mopinko]

29. let it sink

let's not be a park of the propaganda machine, eh?

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[PresidentObama]

40. Personal attacks because you can't debate a point?

I'm sorry you can't debate me on my argument.

And I'm voting for OBAMA.

But thanks for bringing up typos!! Classy.

[zulchzulu]

36. If you want to help out, please do so. Otherwise, get out of the way

Last I checked, it's a little after mid-August.

We have a few months to go.

Help out if anything because you might be a Democrat.

Otherwise, we don't need your negativity. We don't need your half glass full mentality.

As someone who has Kerry as part of your identity here, surely you have some of that Kerry spirit in you. As one who was for Kerry and working in Iowa in 2004 in the winter winds where he was considered out of the race, I knew he was going to win. And, against what many here at DU think, he won in 2004 and even did as much as he could defending against the SBVFT garbage with a confined $80 million budget.

How is Obama going to close the deal? With our help getting out the vote and not second-guessing what will unfold in the next few months.

[darius15]

38. Listen, I understand your concern

but these things happen. Obama & McCain will fluctuate wildly. Now, Obama is tied\barely ahead going into the Dem Conventions, which people are much more excited about than the GOP Convention. Obama's poll numbers will go back up, trust me.

[Erin Elizabeth]

41. Yep, exactly.

There will be weeks when McCain is ahead! There will be weeks when Obama is ahead! And then McCain! And then Obama!

In a big way, the media NEEDS this. If someone pulls out ahead and stays there consistently, there's no drama, nothing to watch. And as Jon Stewart so humorously points out, they need SOMETHING to fill those 24 hours of air time with.

[FrenchieCat]

39. I can tell you were a die hard Kerry supporter......

which makes you the more paranoid.

Here's a suggestion: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6680608&mesg_id=6680608

[PresidentObama]

43. I'm very paranoid. I saw my idol trip and fall into Karl Roves trap in 2004.

[FrenchieCat]

51. I don't think there is any comparison between Obama and Kerry.....

and how they are running their campaign, their ground game or anything else for that matter, but suit yourself and be worried.

I was worried then, I'm not worried now.

Most likely you weren't worried then, so you are worrying now. Ironic how that plays out.

I still feel that calling out the campaign in this public way is not having someone's back, it is stabbing someone's back. I do not find what you are doing to be comforting, wise, or even helpful....but hey, do what you have to do. The suffering children can wait till you are done with your public outcry that helps the media and the Right Wing and deteriorates the morals of those of us on the left that don't see the parallels between John Kerry's few state strategy after winning the primaries like in 2 minutes, and Barack Obama, our first African American Nominee, and how he had to get here, earn every fucking vote. But hey....it's a free country, so you can sue me too.

[blm]

93. Be accurate, FC. Kerry was STUCK with that targeted state strategy of McAuliffe's DNC

a strategy cooked up in mid90s by Bill Clinton and his group who retreated from the DNC mission of getting Dems elected nationally as they concentrated on only using the party machine to protect....Clinton.

EVERY primary candidate in 2004 who witnessed how collapsed the party infrastructure was nationally got behind Dean's stewardship of the DNC and the 50 state strategy.

Obama is tapping into party infrastructures that have been rebuilt and strengthened since 2005.

Gore and Kerry were stuck tapping into state party infrastructures that had been weakened and in some states collapsed completely.

NO miracle worker can rebuild a state party's infrastructure 6 months before election day.

[blm]

92. BULLSHIT - you saw McAuliffe refuse to secure election process for 4 focking years after 2000s theft

and you saw Rove and RNC thugs work for four years to gain control of the election process at every level where the votes are allowed, cast and counted.

How many of you still don't understand what the Siegelman case is about, and the firings of the US attorneys? It was all about controlling the election process in their states.

[unblock]

42. fortunately, i'm more optimistic about MCLAME's chances of LOSING

i certainly think that the msm could turn obama's image into whatever they wanted.

however, i'm rather optimistic that the republican machine simply won't be motivated to go all out for mclame. the base simply doesn't like him, he doesn't inspire them, they're not eager to do criminal stuff for him because they can't trust him.

[10 Year Freeper]

71. The base doesn't like him

That's true. But republicans are known for at least one thing: They Vote.

Count on all the usual votes for McCain. Also count on all the usual votes for Obama...except:

1. A couple of hundred thousand Hillary supporters will either stay home or turncoat.

2. Add a few hundred thousnd newly registered voters FOR Obama.

This race will be decided like all races since 1960...by the "Independent Voter"...20% or so of regular voters that can vote either way, based on whom they perceive to be "the better man".

Unfortunately, the Obama campaign is allowing the McCain campaign to paint Obama as someone "different" and "dangerous"...allowing the uncommitted middle easy movement to the "safe" candidate.

This mold is already cast. It's very unlikely it can now be undone.

[beachmom]

45. Are you registering voters in Missouri?

Because that's the best way of curing the worry bug: get to work.

And I mention it, because Obama is amassing a major ground operation, which is why he is spending less money on an air war at this time. Polls don't reflect having a superior GOTV effort. But if the polls are close at Election Day -- it will give Obama the edge.

So maybe all the worriers can volunteer soon for the Obama campaign.

[PresidentObama]

46. I am doing my part.

A guy came into my work with a NObama button on today.

I actually had a good conversation with him. I like talking to voters, whether I agree or disagree.

Voters around here take it seriously. Some are stubborn, but most will listen and debate you on your points.

[David Zephyr]

48. You are worried because you care. And that's a good thing.

It's why I compromised with my VP pick last month.

I want to win and we can't take any chances with a "western strategy" that has never been tested. We need to win Pennsylvania and Florida and Ohio are we will be in trouble.

K&R.

[GCP]

49. Kicked and recommended

I'm also worried - I've seen far too many good dem candidates lose because of puke dirty tricks and negative attacks. They've already framed the arguments and defined Obama to a large proportion of the politically naive, they'll keep on hammering at it and he has to start defining McCane as angry, bitter, hot headed and more of the same failed Bush policies.

[barack the house]

52. It doesn't just take worry to get someone elected it takes work if it doesn't happen. We didn't work

hard enough. No candidate can do it alone.

[Occam Bandage]

53. Hey, K08 is concerned about Obama. I'm shocked.

[PresidentObama]

55. Hey you didn't talk about my OP. I'm shocked.

[quaker bill]

54. I am not worried

Look into the numbers, really look into them. Nothing has actually changed. McCain has not broken out of his range. He was always going to get about 45 percent of the vote. Nothing about the current numbers indicates otherwise.

Hillary was always going to get 47 to 48 percent. The primary was only close when Barack's numbers slipped down toward hers.

The current numbers nationally seem close because Obama's numbers have slipped a bit back toward McCain's range. Currently it looks a bit close.

Here is the point of all this. McSame, feeling all pumped up has been venturing into territory that will get him nailed in September and October. In short, he was comfortable enough to go stupid and right wing publicly. There is now loads of fresh video that can be used to lash him firmly to Bush.

He has engaged in stupid attacks that demean the office. They will be used to bludgeon him. The Paris / Brittney thing will haunt him. The "win the war" thing will haunt him.

The question has never been about fighting back, the question is when you throw your best punches. As the Bushies reminded us in the run up to the Iraq war, you do not throw them in August. It is still August, but it is soon to be September.

[americanstranger]

79. Hammer, nail, etc.

Great post.

It should be required reading for the panic stricken Anxious Democrats (TM).

- as

[Joe the Revelator]

56. Thats because all you do is constantly whine.....

get to work, son.

[PresidentObama]

57. I'm sorry, you're right. I should get in line, and pretend everything is ok.

"LANDSLIDE LANDSLIDE!!"

[ProSense]

66. Pretend you're rooting for Hillary.

You were certain she was going to win. Afford Obama the same level of pretense.

[PresidentObama]

73. I never thought she was going to win, I thought she was the better candidate.

Still do. I was almost certain Edwards wouldn't be the nominee, and I supported him too.

[ProSense]

76. She's not the better candidate. She ran a lousy campaign

(record $31 million debt) and Obama's grasp of policies are a lot better.

[PresidentObama]

77. Thats your opinion, I believe she was better. As for lousy campaign, file hers behind Senator Kerrys

John Kerry is a great man, and would have made a great President.

As for his campaign, horrible staff and bad strategy.

[ProSense]

78. Way behind

Kerry won the primary and holds the record for the being the second best fundraiser in party history behind Obama.

Hillary's debt is telling.

[Joe the Revelator]

68. You've never had a strong enough spine to weather anything....I remember your posting habits...

Hillary
Obama
Oh shit, back to Hillary!!
Nope she's going to lose....I now REALLY support Obama...

You're absurd.

[PresidentObama]

74. You're at DU, not CU. ConservativeUnderground is what you're looking for, hun.

[Mass]

58. Whoever thought it would be easy is an idiot. Otherwise, stop looking at the polls

and particularly focusing on ONE post when the other ones have Obama ahead.

In addition, Electoral-Vote.com is very bad because they choose the last poll out, even when they are an outliar, rather than an average of the latest poll.

So, yes, we should all worry (just as we should have if Hillary was the nominee). For the rest, we have to campaign for him rather than worrying about polls before Labor day and the Convention. The only thing we can do is to support Obama, campaign for him, and make sure that people hear the message despite the media. And stop either claiming victory before it is there or start handwringing on early polls.

The polls you post concerning Dukakis and Kerry show that polls mean nothing. Stop worrying about them and start working hard if you have not yet done so.

[grannie4peace]

60. well you need to sit down & just listen to obama sometime

because if you do --you will find that what he is going to do is let us run the government. i believe him. he has confidence because he see that america IS tired of all the bullshit.& he has the faith to know when we give our best to something GOD blesses that & honors us by giving us what we ask for. i don't know i i'm explaining it properly but that was what i experienced tonight... so i know now what things i need to do to try to communicate this insight. you know the Bible said Jesus couldn't do any miracles where people didn't believe in him.

[ProSense]

61. Obama supporters confident going into Denver

Obama supporters confident going into Denver

[beachmom]

63. This diary is for you: Now that the 2008 Presidential election is officially over...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/20/172634/613/222/571350

Well, too bad about the whole Obama thing, huh?

Apparently the 2008 election for President ended today when the always reliable Zogby announced that John McCain will be elected over two months from now by 5%.

This is a HUGE relief for me because I was worried I might have to spend the fall making phone calls for Barack Obama and giving money to Barack Obama and maybe even flying somewhere on election day to go door to door for Barack Obama, but now that the election is over my family and I are freed up to go on our semi-annual, cross-country, tour of cities that claim to be the "Cheese Capitol" of America.

...

In fact, this reminds me A LOT of last October when I didn't have to make phone calls for Barack Obama and give money to Barack Obama and maybe even fly somewhere on election day to go door to door for Barack Obama, because Hillary Clinton was the nominee of the Democratic party. I mean, shit, what's the point of even getting involved in the Obama campaign when everybody knows that Hillary Clinton will absolutely be debating Rudy Guliani a year from then, some guy named John McCain having flamed out so badly that it'll be a shocker if he's even still in politics when the Presidential election comes round.

What did John Kerry say? Don't listen to the polls!

[IDemo]

70. Polls aside, I am worried for several reasons

1 - PUMAs. Regardless of how convincing Hillary's speech is, it's likely many will still support Gramps or not vote.
2 - The Bradley effect.
3 - A media which has become entrenched with support for repubs.
4 - Low Information voters who may feel safe and content with continuing the Bush dynasty, ignorant of issues and not a bit concerned about it.
5 - The Diebold Effect; defined in an article from a day or two ago (sorry, can't find it now): If McCain can get even moderately close to Obama,
(the "Diebold Zone"), election theft using e-voting hacks and voter suppression will make a "win" more plausible.

[FrenchieCat]

75. That's what they want you to worry about......

They especially loooove the "Bradley Effect" thingie. Because certainly almost all White people are racists in their hearts of heart.....and I guess you believe that.

[IDemo]

86. Strawman much?

The term refers to "statistically significant numbers" of voters; not all, or even most. And yes, I do believe that enough Americans do harbor racist tendencies, whether covert or overt, to make a statistically significant difference at the ballot box.

[snot]

84. Seconded.

[Milo_Bloom]

72. The problem is that Obama is playing not to lose.

He's already in a prevent defense.

[americanstranger]

80. Except for the 4 attack ads released today...

...and the tougher rhetoric in hi speeches, and Susan Rice starting to tag McCain with the 'reckless' thing, and...

You get the idea. He's just getting started, while so many people here think he's finished.

Kinda funny to watch. Also kinda harmful to the party.

Nothing hurts Democrats worse than other demoralized Democrats. Think about it.

- as

[Prophet 451]

82. Me too

And I settled for Obama after Kucinich and Edwards dropped out but still, even if we assume the contest is a statistical tie, I'm getting worried. McCain is running the worst campaign I have seen in my entire life, Obama is running a somewhat puzzling campaign and I'm getting concerned.

[Naturyl]

85. I'm worried, too.

But I've lived with worry all my life and I know how to deal with it.

You aren't wrong to feel the way you feel and you shouldn't be attacked for it. On the other hand, the DUers who point out that we need to keep morale high and focus on winning this thing aren't wrong, either.

I think anyone who feels some anxiety about the outcome should be able to post one (and only one) "I'm worried" thread without being taken to task for it. But after that, let's get on with the business of supporting our candidate, who still has a very real chance.

[Labors of Hercules]

87. Instead of sitting around being worried, why don't you do something useful.

The question isn't how Obama's going to close the deal, the question is, How are WE going to close the deal. You can start by getting your ass out there and knocking on some doors.

You can join my Change crew if you want... I'll pick you up at 5.

[Lucky 13]

88. Your hand wringing is duly noted.

Now do you care to do anything to help? Or just fret and criticize?

[blm]

89. You bought the corpmedia REVISIONISM. Forget exit polls showing Kerry won by 5%, pretend the swifts

attack worked to cover up another stolen election.

Do people UNDERSTAND what the Siegelman and attorney firing scandal is all about?

[CrispyQ]

95. Anyone who thinks this election is in the bag is deluded.

I was an election judge in '04. At the end of the night we had to count the ballots to verify the same number of ballots to the number of people who had signed in the voters log. Our ballots were optical scan, so they were very large. The presidential & senator candidates were all listed in the left hand column on the front side of the ballot. It was very easy to peruse that column as you counted the ballots. I was stunned at the number of ballots that had boosh selected for prez & Ken Salazar selected for senator. A good number of dems voted for boosh. Kerry may have won, but not by enough to overcome election fraud.

The media is really pushing the "McCain closing the gap on Obama" meme. They will manipulate the public in every way they can & sadly, it will influence lots of people. I think there are tons of people who vote for who they think will win.

Our system is broken. Money equals free speech, our media is nothing more than a propaganda machine, & We the People don't give a shit about anything but NASCAR & Walmart. That old adage about Americans getting the government they deserve? Well, I don't deserve it, but I'm getting tired of fighting against the fucking ignorance & apathy of the masses. If we lose this election, I may never vote again.

All that said, I sent a contribution to Obama & have replied to my local dem headquarters for volunteers. This is my last shot & I'll give it my best.

[dave123williams]

97. Ok. You're sued. Here's why:

Polls are always samples of a thousand, or two thousand 'likely' voters.

In the primaries, the GOP turned out about 19 million actual voters, in total, for all nine or ten of their candidates combined.

The Democrats turned out about 37 million actual voters. A little over 18 million for Obama, slightly less for Mrs. Clinton.

Unless McCain flips eighteen million Democrats, this is going to be an epic blowout.

Little wonder the MSM, scions of the status quo, cheerleaders of our foreign policy disasters, are interested in getting you to think it's close.

I'm not buying it. Neither should you.

Please stop peddling their meme, thanks.

[MessiahRp]

98. You're under the assumption that all general election voters voted in the primaries

That's just not true. A lot of people stay away from the Primaries altogether. Either their preferred candidate was out by then, or they really don't care enough about those smaller votes, or maybe there's a referendum that helps draw people to the ballot in November but not earlier.

Either way there will be a ton more people voting in the general and your assumptions are way off base.

Rp

[book_worm]

100. pollster.com has Obama up in electoral votes 260-191

[Better Believe It]

102. K&R

I understand.