FrenchieCat

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Wed Aug-20-08 01:15 PM
Original message

In close contests, poor Democratic morale was enough to swing the election

Edited on Wed Aug-20-08 01:54 PM by FrenchieCat

That statement in my headline was written on Monday, Dec. 02, 1946
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,887240,00.html?iid=chix-sphere

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true.
Although examples of such prophecies can be found in literature as far back as ancient Greece and ancient India, it is 20th-century sociologist Robert K. Merton who is credited with coining the expression "self-fulfilling prophecy" and formalizing its structure and consequences. In his book Social Theory and Social Structure, Merton gives as a feature of the self-fulfilling prophecy:

� The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the original false conception come 'true'. This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning.�

In other words, a prophecy declared as truth when it is actually false may sufficiently influence people, either through fear or logical confusion, so that their reactions ultimately fulfill the once-false prophecy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy

So all of the Chicken Littles out there........just keep on complaining, and all of your dreams may come true.

Meanwhile:

Obama Launches 50-State Voter Registration Drive
By Garance Franke-Ruta
Sen. Barack Obama may not yet be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, but Saturday morning his campaign launched in more than 100 other locations across the country a national voter registration drive intended to transform the electorate - or at least register more Democrats -- in advance of November's general election.

Dozens of men and women - black, white, Asian and Latino - turned out to Busboys & Poets, a cafe cum bookstore in Arlington's Shirlington Village, to pick up voter registration packets and then head out to find new voters amid the strip malls and supermarkets of Northern Virginia, politically significant region and Obama stronghold.

A lot could rest on their success: No president in modern times has won office without winning some Southern states. Virginia -- once a solidly conservative Southern state -- is now in political flux, thanks especially to rapid population changes in its north, and it has a history of having elected an African American governor. Many believe Obama needs a strong performance in the state to sustain his presidential hopes.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/10/obama_launches_50state_voter_r.html

Pay To Attention To Obama's Voter Registration Drive
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/pay_to_attention_to_obamas_vot.php

Landlines vs. Cell Phones: how polling could get it just wrong enough.
http://ademlament.blogspot.com/2007/12/landlines-vs-cell-phones-how-polling.html

Media influence
In psychology, communication theory and sociology, media influence or media effects refers to the theories about the ways the mass media affect how their audiences think and behave.
<snip>
The media has a strong social and cultural impact upon society. This is predicated upon its ability to reach a wide audience which often sends a strong and influential message. Marshall McLuhan uses the term �the medium is the message� as a means of explaining how the distribution of the message can often be more important than the message itself. <1> It is through the persuasiveness of media such as television, radio and print media that reach the target audience.
<snip>
Television broadcasting has a large amount of control in influencing the content that society watches and the times in which they are viewed. This is a distinguishing feature of traditional media and although they are by no means redundant, the development of the internet has challenged the traditional participation habits involved in media such as television. The internet has lifted some of the restrictions placed on society by allowing for diversification of political opinions, social and cultural differences and heightened level of consumer participation. There have been suggestions that allowing consumers to produce information through the internet will lead to a bombardment of too much information. It can however allow society a medium for expressing opinions and moving away from the political restrictions placed on society.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_influence

Most say US on wrong track: AP-Ipsos poll
Wherever the nation should be headed, this isn't it.

The number of Americans who believe the country is moving in the wrong direction has risen sharply, to nearly eight in ten, amid soaring food and gas prices, falling home values and unending war. Just 17 percent say the country is going in the right direction, according to an AP-Ipsos poll.

The right-direction number is the lowest ever recorded by the survey, which began in 2003. When other surveys are taken into account, the general level of pessimism is the worst in almost 30 years.

And it's getting worse. The 17 percent positive reading was down from 24 percent just since April.

Those who said the country was on the wrong track totaled 76 percent of the people contacted in the survey, which was taken from June 12-16. That's up from 71 percent in April and 66 percent near the end of 2007.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/19/most-say-us-on-wrong-trac_n_108138.html

Likely Rise in Voter Turnout Bodes Well for Democrats
McCain's Enthusiasm Gap, Obama's Unity Gap

The outlook for the presidential election at mid-year is substantially different than at comparable points in time in recent campaigns. First, turnout is likely to be higher this fall - perhaps much higher than in previous elections - as voter interest continues at record levels. Second, as has been the case since the start of the campaign, Democrats enjoy a substantial engagement advantage over Republicans that may significantly alter the composition of the November electorate.
<snip>
Compared with previous election cycles, voter engagement is up among all demographic groups, but has increased more among voters under age 50 than among older voters. Uncharacteristically, the youngest voters - those under age 30 - are at least as knowledgeable, and in some cases more knowledgeable, about candidates' positions on Iraq and abortion than are older voters.

Strong and consistent interest and engagement suggests that voter turnout will likely be high in November, as it was during this year's primaries. The new survey finds another potential parallel between the general election and the primaries: Democratic turnout could match or perhaps exceed Republican participation in November, just as it did in most states during the primaries.
http://people-press.org/report/436/obama-mccain-july

IN THE END, WINNING THIS ELECTION WILL BE UP TO US.

This is what Barack Obama has contented all along. That we are who we have been waiting for. Sitting passively and publicly critiquing the campaign (which is all that you are doing when crying on these boards) is not going to win the election. Winning won't depend on how many of us "predicted" a win or a lose. Rewards will not be given to those who claimed beforehand that the campaign strategy was all wrong. You will get nothing for buckling under a tide of manipulative polling and media reports skewed to report an election narrative that they were praying you would buy.

IN THE END, WINNING THIS ELECTION will be based on our attitude and our enthusiasm; on whether we believe that we are going to win or not. The more we say we are not going to win, the more likely that this is what will happen.

SO since we are part of the activist base of the Democratic party, if we act and speak as if we are demoralized, then we become one more loose chink in the armor of this election. and so in fact, we become the problem simply by deciding that telling everyone what's wrong is the priority in this election.

Got a problem with the campaign? Write to them. http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/contact/

For those of you who believe you have a legitimate concern......certainly you have every right to proclaim publicly all you want what you think is wrong with the Obama campaign. But you must keep in mind, in doing so, you are actually helping the McCain campaign, not the Obama campaign.

The media is watching, and negative sentiments against the Obama campaign are being noted, and will be magnified, because that is what the media does. So, yes.....the media is looking for people exactly like you; the ones lacking fortitude and confidence, i.e., those who are scared to death based on past election results, that they are willing to spread their defeatist attitudes to weaken those of us with resolve, and worse still, to those who are still trying to decide who they will vote for. You are the ones that they have been waiting for, and you have a choice of giving them what they seek, or telling them to go to hell. In otherwords, you really do control your own future, and possibly the future of the rest of us, including our children.

Added note: As far as racism and those with concerns about it in this election; racism is an idea, a thought, that manifests itself via attitude, then to words and can lead to certain actions. The more we buy into this idea that the media has sold us that White people are more racists than not, the more we make the issue of racism more real than what it has to be. Please resist. Do not let melanin become the issue in this election.