Latest Zogby battleground poll, Nader can screw us big time

[still_one]

Arkansas
Kerry 48%
Bush 46%
Nader/? 6%
EV - 6

Florida
Kerry 50%
Bush 49%
Nader/? 1%
EV - 27

Iowa
Kerry 52%
Bush 45%
Nader/? 3%
EV - 7

Michigan
Kerry 51%
Bush 45%
Nader/? 4%
EV - 17

Minnesota
Kerry 50%
Bush 45%
Nader/? 5%
EV - 10

Missouri
Kerry 49%
Bush 49%
Nader/? 2%
EV - 11

Nevada
Kerry 48%
Bush 46%
Nader/? 6%
EV - 5

New Hampshire
Kerry 43%
Bush 51%
Nader/? 6%
EV - 4

New Mexico
Kerry 50%
Bush 44%
Nader/? 6%
EV - 5

Ohio
Kerry 46%
Bush 51%
Nader/? 3%
EV - 20

Oregon
Kerry 54%
Bush 43%
Nader/? 3%
EV - 7

Pennsylvania
Kerry 52%
Bush 44%
Nader/? 4%
EV - 21

Tennessee
Kerry 50%
Bush 48%
Nader/? 2%
EV - 11

Washington
Kerry 53%
Bush 45%
Nader/? 2%
EV - 11

West Virginia
Kerry 42%
Bush 49%
Nader/? 9%
EV - 5

Wisconsin
Kerry 51%
Bush 46%
Nader/? 3%
EV - 10

North Carolina
Kerry 50%
Bush 49%
Nader/? 2%
EV - 15

Colorado
Kerry 49%
Bush 46%
Nader/? 5%
EV - 9

Arizona
Kerry 50%
Bush 47%
Nader/? 2%
EV - 10

Virginia
Kerry 48%
Bush 49%
Nader/? 4%
EV - 13

[NoBorders]

1. Correction: Nader can't screw us

People who vote for Nader can screw us. Need to put the responsibility where it is due, but your point is well taken.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. We pick up VA, NC, CO, Tenn., AZ

I don't see a problem at all here.

[maine_raptor]

3. I see no listing of Maine

Nader, as of right now, on the ballot. He pulled 6% in 2000 and could be a factor. Latest polls I've seen show a close race in the state.

Warning, don't be too sure tat Kerry will carry ME.

[Dudley_DUright]

6. But Maine proportions electors according to the percentage

of the vote. It is not winner take all.

The candidate who wins in a state is awarded all of that state’s Electoral College votes, except in Maine and Nebraska where the electoral may be split.

http://bensguide.gpo.gov/9-12/election/electoral.html

[VirginiaDem]

9. It's a weird split though

There are two districts, one worth 3 votes and the other worth 1. If memory serves, Kerry is way up in the 1-district. So, theoretically, Nader could screw us in Maine. I think this is highly doubtful though.

[fujiyama]

33. A possible scenario

is Kerry winning the first district (1EV), winning the overall popular vote of the state (2EV), but Bush winning the second district (which Gore barely won). THat would allow Bush to take 1 electoral vote.

[maine_raptor]

13. Yes I know, but

* could have enough of a margin coming out of the 2nd district to keep his total above Kerry's in the 1st.

Also, what a lot of non-Mainer's don't realize is that this yr we have a question on the ballot (Ques 1) that will bring out a larger number of conservative voters than normal. Question 1 is a property tax relief measure (modeled on CA's Prop 13) that is BIG among the "less taxes, less government" crowd.

The split of EVs maynot happen if * squeaks by on the popular vote total.

[VirginiaDem]

16. Now I'm more confused than usual

* could have enough of a margin coming out of the 2nd district to keep his total above Kerry's in the 1st.

What does this mean? How does it work? Sorry and thanks.

[maine_raptor]

17. It's proportional, right?

so if * wins the pop vote in the 2nd by 3 votes and kerry wins in the 1st by 2 votes, guess who wins it all?

At least that is my understanding, but I could be wrong....but look at this article in the Bangor Daily News.....

http://www.bangornews.com/editorialnews/article.cfm?ID=429915

It's about the challenge to Nader's ballot, but it will shed more light on the situtation up here

[VirginiaDem]

19. here's a quote I found

on this website about Colorado's proposed ballot initiative to use proportional representation:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/8/3/144612/0610

"I think the Right Thing to do here is what Maine does, and allocate two EVs by the statewide popular vote, and the rest by the the popular vote in each individual CD."

I'm still confused.

[maine_raptor]

21. End of confusion....I hope LOL

Lets say Bush wins pop vote in 2nd by 3 votes....Thats 1 ev for *

Kerry wins pop votes in 1st by 1 vote...that's 2 ev for Kerry

But because Bush won the TOTAL pop vote he gets another 2 ev's

Total 3 EV's Bush, 1 EV Kerry.

Net effect is that Bush wins Maine.

But it gets better:

Come the actual Electorial College vote in the House, that lone Kerry Electorial voter could throw his vote to Bush (because more folks up here voted for Bush than Kerry) and the effect would be a sweep of Maine's EV for Bush.

Remember Electorial College voters are not "bound by law" to vote the way the results indicate. This is why each party has slates of EC voters and not just a general, take out of the closet every four years group of people.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. conventional wisdom in Maine is that it will break for Kerry

big time. It is reliably Dem.

[maine_raptor]

14. I live up here, JK had a 10 point lead once, not now n/t

[Green Lantern]

34. Up until a few years ago

Maine was hardcore red. There is still a strong streak. Remember, both Congressmaen are currently Dems, but both Senators are Republican women. Interesting anomaly. And Maine has had two independent governors in the last (roughly) 28 years, and Maine punched in 19% for Perot a few years back.

The state is still up for grabs. But the DP in Maine has initiated a review of Nader signatures with regard to ballot access. (see stopnader.org-sorry-don't know how to do the link thing.)

[MattNC]

4. Nader's #'s seem too high

especially in Arkansas, Virginia, and West Virginia.

[RobertSeattle]

5. How can Nader get more votes than last time?

I've never consider any 2004 poll with Nader with more that 2% bogus

[Bush was AWOL]

36. How in these polls you ask...well he can get more votes

by Bush supporters saying they will vote for him in order to keep his sorry ass in the race.

[Beetwasher]

8. Are Those NH #'s Reversed?

They gotta be, I Coulda Sworn I saw different results on another thread...

[MattNC]

15. you're right - electoral-vote.com has JK up by that amount n/t

[still_one]

22. sorry I messed up

[Guava Jelly]

10. Nader isnt on the Ballot in Missouri

he missed it via not enough Real signatures

[movonne]

11. What date is this poll???

[still_one]

23. today

[VirginiaDem]

12. My first time to see the new numbers for

Colorado, NC, VA and AZ. These are great numbers! As for Nader, for the states he does eventually get on the ballot for, he will do much worse than he did in 2000. It is possible, though, given what we saw in Florida. He won't screw us anywhere by getting five percent of the vote. I doubt he gets more than 2.5 percent in any state.

[lancdem]

18. Where did you get the Colo., Ariz., Va. and N.C. numbers?

I knew they were coming out today. Wow!

[still_one]

24. Zogby

[lancdem]

27. Is there a link?

[Zynx]

32. Yeah, I'd like to see the link too.

[PaDem]

20. Some of this polling contradicts a lot of other polling out there.......

I think Zogby is way off. Every other poll under the sun has Bush up in Arizona. Every other poll under the sun has Kerry up in NH. No other pollster has Nader having this kind of impact across the board. Kerry now up in North Carolina and Tennessee? Please, someone link me to another pollster who has Kerry up in those states.

[lancdem]

26. The N.H. numbers are reversed

Kerry is up there by 51-43. And the Nader numbers are all wrong. No Zogby poll has Nader getting more than a couple percent, most less. Tennessee is very close in other polls, and other polls give Bush a small lead in Arizona.

[PaDem]

30. Thank you for clearing that up for me.......

makes perfect sense on New Hampshire. I figured something was up with the high Nader numbers.

[blondeatlast]

25. Nader failed to make the ballot in Arizona.

And damn if we aren't going BLUE.

YIPEE!

[Endangered Specie]

35. I hope he doesnt make it here in NC... We are SOOO close to turning BLUE

too!

[fishface]

28. But is he on all those ballots???

That's the real question.

[yankeedem]

29. Nader vote= undecided

Look at these figures, they don't leave an undecided alternative seemingly. If you aren't sure, you say Nader. Most of these people will break our way when it matters- especially since Nader won't be on the ballot in many of these states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. I HAVE NO FAITH IN POLLS OF SELF SELECTED RESPONDENTS

NT

[LisaL]

37. Nader is a problem

But he absolutely refuses to get off the ballot.
So, the best strategy would be to win over Nader voters, I guess.