InsiderAdvantage Poll has Obama down 4 in Florida.

[Drunken Irishman]

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_812_516.aspx

They're already writing it as a loss for Obama, but I have some issues with the poll. Firstly, it's InsiderAdvantage, who I generally do not trust. Secondly, look at the break down. McCain receives almost 20% of the black vote. That seems highly suspect, since Bush only received http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/FL/P/00/epolls.0.html">13% of the black vote in 2004. I'm supposed to believe McCain will poll +5% better than Bush running against Obama? Hard to believe.

[Bullet1987]

1. Most polls will under-represent Obama's AA support

And that's not even including higher AA turnout in states like NC, VA, FL, OH, MI, etc.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. If Obama bumps his AA support +2, it essentially becomes a tie.

I see McCain getting the type of number Bush did in 2004, that means, using their numbers, Obama probably has a slight lead in Florida.

[book_worm]

3. It's closer than that.

[mvd]

4. High margin of error there

Just like the Alaska poll. Will need to see more and better polls before writing off Florida.

[gaiilonfong]

5. Florida is not engaged yet

I live here, and the Obama campaign offices here in Ft Lauderdale and Hollywood and in other parts of Broward county just opened a few days ago...there is a big push going on now, and the Obama campaign is starting to show a real presence here now........the REAL number won't start to become evident until AFTER labor day, when the early snowbirds return along with all the young people...so don't believe ANY Florida polls yet....
I can tell you Obama is getting a VERY big push in the Cuban community whom Kerry lost BADLY in 2004...Obama should get a significant number this time...that is the real good news here now.

[Dawgs]

6. Obama needs a local ad telling Floridians that McCain opposed the GI Bill.

Do it right before the election and McCain will lose a lot of votes.