The Daily Widget – Tuesday, Aug 12 – Obama 335, McCain 203 – Obama Down 9

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Analysis
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


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1. ANALYSIS

Four new state polls were released yesterday, three of which moved between columns on the State Chart (see Section 7 below). Oregon moves left today, while Virginia and Iowa each take a step to the right. Colorado stays put in the Lean Obama column. More detail on the new state polls is shown in Section 3 below.

Survey USA was the first to report back in February that the Democratic Party has a chance this year in Virginia, and they were correct. Virginia has become a swing state this year. Survey USA shows Obama trailing McCain by one point in their new poll. We had previously shown Obama leading by a razor thin 0.5 points, so the new poll shows a very small 1.5-point shift to the right.

Survey USA should begin to reassert itself as a leading polling agency starting this month. Like Rasmussen, their polls usually show the race closer in the swing and weak states than it most likely is (in my opinion), and they do release an occasional outlier (sometimes mind-boggling). But FiveThirtyEight.com gives SUSA one of the lowest pollster-introduced error ratings at (+1.02). This is possibly due to the volume of polls they release, but overall they are usually within the ballpark.

Rasmussen shows Oregon as Strong Obama with a 10-point lead, after Survey USA showed Obama’s lead shrinking to +3 late last week. These two polls are averaged, showing Obama leading in Oregon by 6.5 points. Rasmussen also shows Iowa weakening, joining the club in the Midwest of the states which formerly polled Strong Obama.

Our Wigand Electoral Average fell by 2.42 points (see Figures 2b and 5b below) due to Virginia switching sides today.


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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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3. NEW STATE POLLS


Colorado Obama 48, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 8/7, +/- 3.2, 933 LV)
Iowa Obama 49, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 8/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon Obama 52, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 8/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 48 (Survey USA, 8/10, +/- 3.9, 655 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[tekisui]

1. Time to get to work!~

When Obama gets back from his well deserved vacation, it will be time to go full throttle.

I think his local ads will help a lot, and I hope to see more of them coming in the swinging states.:kick:

[phrigndumass]

3. It really is "do or die" from this point on

The local ads will definitely help, and the Obama campaign is wise to only go negative locally.

We'll peak at just the right time this year. At this point in 2004 we had already played most of our game.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[jefferson_dem]

2. Thanks phrigndumass!

I'm still feeling great about our chances in VA (especially if he picks Kaine like I think he will). Consider SUSA's 84/14 spread for AAs. And they will probably make up more than the 19% of the VA electorate SUSA projects.

[phrigndumass]

4. Doesn't that 14% AA polling for McCain seem high? :)

It does to me. It's about 5 to 8 points higher than the national average for McCain with regards to polling for African American voters. And it comes out to about 100,000 votes for McCain from that demographic.

I guess we'll see ...

:donut: Good morning, jd! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good morning!

I'm going to have to go back to this. The kids are chosing this moment to play 'Don't break the ice' a kind of loud game.

I got as far as

Oregon moves left today, while Virginia and Iowa each take a step to the right.

which reminded me of some song at my brother's wedding that was like the Electric Slide. I better just stop right here and come back when they are little more quiet and I can focus. :rofl:

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. LOL ... You have two choices :)

Either endure it and hope they wear themselves down, or spike the juice.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. Off to work kick

:kick: :P

[opihimoimoi]

8. K&R The true extent of Bushies impotence has not yet arrived for his base

But his pantys is showing....

[phrigndumass]

9. Thanks opi :)

After a few more nights drinking at the Olympics, he should be staggering all over the place. The cameras are watching!

:hi:

[opihimoimoi]

12. The man has no idea what a FOOL he made of himself....as do the FOOLS that support him...

And now we have McClone about to do the SAME should he win.....

Are We(USA) Intentionally sending Drunken Fool types to the WORLD STAGE?? Sending a message of Waste....Not Advancing...Not Solving?

America needs to learn ways to embrace Positivity as a means to decide questions/concepts/etc. Way better results.

Obama is the Path toward ADVANCING AMERICA and in the long run....Advancing the Planet...

[Demeter]

10. Greetings From the Dog Days of August, P-Man!

I do wish there was some way of tracking the 6 column table through time. I know nothing about computer animation, and cannot make any suggestions.

Do you project your expectations only 1 week at a time, or are you due for another shift on all those graphs?

And what happened to Colorado? It was looking so promising! I guess that was a good state to pick for the convention, if all the hoopla boosts Colorado voters over onto the side of the righteous. Of course, any rowdiness could work against us....

Perpetual anticipation is good for the soul, but it's bad for the heart--Stephen Sondheim, "A Little Night Music"

[phrigndumass]

11. Someone turned the heat off here in Illinois, lol

We have a full week of temps forecast in the 70's, just perfect for the Illinois State Fair, or yard work, or both (or neither, lol).

There is a way of tracking the totals for the 6-column chart:



The yellow line shows the combined total for both Lean Obama and Lean McCain. Those are the MOE states. I post this graph in the Weekly post under the Electoral Strength section.

All the graphs in the Daily Widget change daily, and the trend lines automatically update with the daily changes. But changes are happening slowly lately, so they don't appear to move much.

Colorado is still looking promising :D ... Obama is leading by four points there, and the PPP poll had a MOE of +/- 3.2, so his lead in Colorado is beyond the margin of error.

Here's a quick history of Colorado polling this year (left to right is oldest to newest):


:hi:

[Demeter]

13. I Forgot About That One!

Thanks for the tip!

Glad it's cooled off in Illinois. We had a pleasant weekend, but we're back on the Humidity cycle.
Ugh!

What do you think about the fear of election fraud? Weiner's Crisis Paper post, etc. Your stats should be a good check on that, I would think....