Ridge, Portman, and Thune.

[saltpoint]

I'm guessing McCain carries South Dakota.

I'm predicting he loses Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Ridge likely narrows the margin of victory in Pennsylvania but I still think Obama wins the Keystone State.

Dubya carried Ohio by I think 3.4% in 2000 -- and that was after Gore conceded the state. Had he not mounted a truncated fight he might have carried it.

Ridge, arguably, has nothing better to do than run with McCain if he's asked, but do you believe McCain risks repelling the fundie base with a pro-choice pick? He could, if the internal polling says he has nothing to lose and everything to gain with a risky choice. If Obama wins Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado, though, the gamble won't have paid any great divident for McCain.

So I think Ridge is still a consideration but has several asterisks attached.

Thune likely has a bright future in the national Republican Party if he wants one. The question for him is whether running with McCain in a losing effort interrupts his forward path into "GOP stardom" or not. Would he be willing to stop what he's doing now to show up to 283 rubber chicken circuit events in 3 months for a grizzled old crank like McCain?

Portman will run for the governor's job in Ohio one of these days. He's smooth, he's slick, he's palatable to the electorate. He'd help McCain keep it close in Ohio, as Ridge would help in Pennsylvania. But why would he take the job? He likely has a stand-alone future in Ohio politics and perhaps beyond. Not sure he'd be that interesting in dog-sitting for McCain.

Which leaves McCain roughly with Far Right nobodies like Pawlenty and Cantor; floridly psychotic Far Right cartoons (Huckabee); and ego-goblins who are slobberingly eager to say yes if asked (Romney, Fiorina, Lieberman).

Or he could choose everybody's favorite Russia expert, Condi Rice.

[tekisui]

1. His priority number one must be to hold FL.

If he loses FL, he loses it all.

Then, he has to hold Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Indiana AND Nevada.

But, I think his pick will be someone to help him defend Florida. Which will leave him more vulnerable in the West. There is no pick on his side that will help in ALL of those states.

[saltpoint]

2. Agree -- if the Pukes drop Florida it's all over early on election night.

But my god -- Charlie Crist?

For me, Charlie Crist is at least a 9.5 on the Yuck Index. Hard to tell what the Pukes see in that guy.

[tekisui]

3. Anyone else popular in FL?

Jeb is radioactive everywhere else. Doesn't Ridge have FL ties?

[saltpoint]

4. He might. I'm not sure.

Ridge looks like a solid option for McCain until maybe the internal polling shows that the fundie nutbags he needs in other states won't show up in the same numbers for a pro-choice nominee.

McCain does better in Pennsylvania with Ridge, for sure, but might lose Indiana and Missouri if the nutbags in the GOP base don't flood the precincts for him in those states.

[noel711]

5. NOt gonna be Ridge... He's pro-choice...

and no matter how much 'heft' he give to ticket,
the religious right would never support the ticket
with a pro-choice candidate.

[saltpoint]

6. Agree that the fundies would go ballistic over a pro-Choicer but

McCain's options are few.

If he goes with the fundie base pick he loses the % of indies he needs for swing states.

If he goes with the Ridge pro-Choice pick he repels the fundies.