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From talking with knowledgable Georgians in Tbilisi today and in the US, I believe I have a pretty good understanding of what has really happened. The Russians got the separatists in South Ossetia to fire missiles at Georgian villages bordering South Ossetia. Saakashvili responded by ordering his troops into South Ossetia. This gave the Russians the excuse they wanted to invade Georgia. The Russians lied to the world in saying that they were only going to secure the two breakaway provinces. They really intended from the first to depose the pro-Western Georgian democratic government. In response to the Russian invasion, Bush and Western European leaders made a decision that they were not willing to station any troops in southern Georgia to try to deter the Russians from going to the capital, Tbilisi, to change the government. Bush's statement today condemning the Russian invasion of Georgian proper is really only a bunch of words. Bush will do nothing about the situation -- no threat of sanctions on Russia or anything else. The Russians are now going to send their troops into the capital and install a pro-Russian puppet as head of the country, who is a former Georgian KGB chief and was a big time Communist. He already has been moved by the Russians into Abkazia, the other breakaway province. He will be brought to Tbilisi once the Russian army takes control of the city. The Russians are now telling the Georgians in Tbilisi that the Russians do not intend to attack civilians as they enter the city. They are going their to put their new puppet in charge and to depose the democratic government. The democratic government has called for a massive public anti-Russian demonstration in the biggest open square in Tbilisi on Tuesday. However, it appears certain that the Russian army will take over the city. The supporters of the current government will hopefully not engage in street to street fighting with the Russians, which could lead to a fight that would cause severe damage to the city of 1 million people. In short, Putin will successfully pull off his regime change. However, because Georgians 40 and younger are pro-Western (hundreds have gone to US universities on Muskie Fellowships) and are likely not to be happy with the new government, that government will only be able to be maintained by the continuous presence of Russian troops in Georgia. I suspect that the next time there is political instability in Russia the younger Georgians will overthrow the puppet leader now being installed by the Russians.
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