Why does anyone think Obama will win? Almost every DU'er seems to be the only vote within their

[CK_John]

immediate family, their extended family, their job, and their casual friends according to the many posts fighting the brave and lonely fight for Obama. Even here I doubt Obama gets 51% due to being non citizens, not registered, incapable of making any decisions, underage, etc.

In my area of upstate NY there is 0 support, no signs, no car stickers, 20% outright racism, 30% covert racism, 25% won't vote for varies reasons, and rest will vote for Obama but will not say so publicly.

I think the reality is Obama is down about 15% and anyone who thinks this is a cakewalk is a fool.

[Levgreee]

1. huh?

[Bill McBlueState]

2. this is why people do polls

Statistics are better than anecdotes.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Yet Obama will win NY handily.

[CK_John]

7. At this point I doubt it. n/t

[BklynChick]

27. are you freaking high? I live in NYC and there are Obama signs everywhere. He will win the state

easily

[JoFerret]

30. He will take the city.

The OP said upstate. Different animal.

[CK_John]

35. I doubt he will carry Staten Is, Long Is, Westchester or Dutchess Co. n/t

[darius15]

43. Well...

he may not carry Richmond County (Staten Island), but Long Island will go for him easily, especially Queens & Kings County. Nassau And Suffolk will be toss ups, but all in all, Long Island will go for Obama no doubt. Dutchess County is also a toss up.

It doesn't even matter anyway, Obama will carry NY by 20 +.

[SOS]

58. New York, per RCP average, Obama +19.3%

New York State, RCP Average, 07/17 - 08/04: Obama -52.0% McCain - 32.7 Obama +19.3%

Looks pretty good actually.

Edit to add 2004 results:

Kerry: 59%
Bush: 40%

[PresidentObama]

61. The OPer has no use for FACTS.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

103. So why waste your time being here? It doesn't make sense and you're not making sense!

[glowing]

4. Because of some enthusiasm.. I had none for Gore or Kerry.. I was just smart enough

to vote for them... but it didn't matter... Obama has some spirit... its catching..

AND yes, it won't be easy.. McCain is hinting and overting racist images all over in his "plucky-fun" videos.

[sandnsea]

5. My entire town is for Obama

I don't know what the hell you're talking about.

Oh yeah, it's silly sunday. I keep forgetting not to take DU seriously on Sundays.

[ErinBerin84]

6. In my area of upstate NY, I have yet to see a McCain sticker.

Lots of Obama stickers and signs, even some Ron Paul ones...though it could be just the usual "lack of enthusiasm" for the McCain campaign, so stickers aren't neccesarily indicators of votes. I get some comfort out of the fact that NY will go blue, but there is some racism here as well. But I know of only one person who is voting for McCain, out of the people who I know.

[PresidentObama]

52. Don't rain on the OPer's poo-poo parade with *FACTS* and *EXAMPLES*

[proud2BlibKansan]

8. That's not at all true in my case

I honestly don't know anyone who is voting for McCain. I have seen ONE bumper sticker. ONE. Last week I drove through 5 states and saw Obama signs and bumper stickers but NONE for McCain. (The bumper sticker I saw was on a car at my neighborhood grocery store.)

I have also been a regular on many discussion boards for at least 5 years now and the Obama supporters greatly outnumber McCain's fans. That's pretty much how it has gone with the war too. Very few are still supporting it. But they are loud and obnoxious.

Obama is definitely NOT down here in the midwest.

[Blue_In_AK]

9. Up here you don't see many signs for either one. n/t

McCain is pretty universally disliked and Obama isn't trusted.

[jonnyblitz]

10. If we are to go by personal anecdotal evidence then ,based on

mine, Obama is going to win in a landslide because everybody I know, including GOP family members that voted for Bush twice, plan on voting for him. :shrug:

[CK_John]

14. You may believe them but I woundn't. n/t

[Name removed]

71. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Peacetrain]

11. Totally disagree

Your reality and mine are 180 degrees apart. I don't think anyone thinks its going to be a cakewalk.

[billyoc]

12. 25% from upstate New York is all we need, thanks for your concern.

:eyes:

[BanzaiBonnie]

13. In my rural area

I was the only person I knew who was voting for Kerry.

This time around, I hear from people all over who will vote for Obama.

[polichick]

15. I'm in PA and I've seen hundreds of Obama stickers just in my town alone...

...and one McCain sticker. Also many lawn signs and zero McCain lawn signs.

[jmowreader]

16. You don't live in the Thousand Islands region, by any chance?

If so, there's a reason for what you're seeing: Republicanism runs strong there. I knew a soldier from the 10th Mountain Division Artillery who got out and took a job with the county health department as a roadkill collector. He had to join the Republican Party before they'd hire him.

When you've got to be a card-carrying Repuke to pick up dead dogs, you know you're in the most Republican area in the Northeast.

[CK_John]

20. I'm west of Albany and county jobs are legacy type positions. n/t

[dkf]

17. We don't talk about our sane family members and friends.

just the freaky ones.

[Arugula Latte]

18. Uh, your world is not everybody's world.

Everyone I know -- friends, relatives, neighbors -- whose candidate preference I know, is voting for Obama. With enthusiasm.

[nc4bo]

19. I live in North Carolina and have not seen one McBush bumper sticker yet..

although a few weeks ago I did see a really old guy driving a old ford truck with a bush/cheney sticker on it.

I have seen at least 5 Obama yard signs and about 4 bumper stickers, 2 Ron Paul yard signs and 0 Paul bumper stickers, 0 McCain signs or stickers and 0 Cynthia McKinney stickers or signs.

It's weird especially when I think about how it was in previous elections. Actually besides a handful of signs and stickers, I'd never known we were having a Presidential election at all.

[mckeown1128]

21. Concern recognized...but not noted. nt

[LibDemAlways]

22. I live in a conservative suburb of Southern Cal. There are

numerous Obama stickers on cars and a few McCains. I think the Obama supporters are more enthusiatic about their candidate and more likely to openly express support. That said, McCain will "win" this backward, knuckle-dragging county (Ventura) handily, but he's going down statewide. CA will go Obama by a significant margin.

[Douglas Carpenter]

23. I have not come across one single credible political scientist that does not think Obama will

probably win, including Republicans.

There is not one single financial predictions market in the entire world that does not predict a greater than 58% chance of Sen. Obama winning


http://www.intrade.com/

Rasmussen Markets now predicts a 60.1% chance of Sen. Obama winning the White House
http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=68256


Having said that, it is still entirely possible that Sen. McCain could win, just highly unlikely and historically unprecedented.

Can McCain Overcome the Triple Whammy?

A Commentary By Alan I. Abramowitz

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

" Polls in the spring of 1988 showed Michael Dukakis with a comfortable lead over George H.W. Bush and polls in June of 1992 showed Bill Clinton running third behind both Bush and H. Ross Perot. So recent polls showing a close race between McCain and Obama may not tell us much about what to expect in November.

Instead of using early horserace polls, political scientists generally rely on measures of the national political climate to make their forecasts. That is because the national political climate can be measured long before the election and it has been found to exert a powerful influence on the eventual results.

Three indicators of the national political climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since the end of World War II: the incumbent president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year, and the length of time the president's party has held the White House. "

"The Electoral Barometer has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 14 of the 15 presidential elections since World War II. There were five elections in which the Electoral Barometer was negative and the president's party lost the popular vote in all five of these elections: 1952, 1960, 1976, 1980, and 1992. There were ten elections in which the Electoral Barometer was positive, and the president's party won the popular vote in nine of these elections: 1948, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2000, and 2004. "

"The current national political climate is one of the worst for the party in power since the end of World War II. No candidate running in such an unfavorable political environment – Republican or Democrat - has ever been successful. "

"Dr. Alan Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkely Professor of Political Science at Emory University, and the author of Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States."

link to full article:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

--------------

And some more point from the same article:

"These three factors can be combined to produce an Electoral Barometer score that measures the overall national political climate. The formula for computing this score is simply the president's net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) in the Gallup Poll plus five times the annual growth rate of real GDP minus 25 if the president's party has held the White House for two terms or longer. Mathematically, this formula can be written as: EB = NAR + (5*GDP) - 25.

In theory, the Electoral Barometer can range from -100 or lower to +100 or higher with a reading of zero indicating a neutral political climate. In practice, Electoral Barometer readings for the fifteen presidential elections since the end of World War II have ranged from -66 in 1980 to +82 in 1964. A positive Electoral Barometer reading generally predicts victory for the incumbent party while a negative reading generally predicts defeat."

Truman's score in 1948 based on this formula was +4.5

Bush Senior's score in 1988 based on this formula was +7.7

McCains score this year based on this formula is -63

link to full article:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

[qwlauren35]

75. Ummm... what about 2004????

I'd ***REALLY*** like to know what the numbers looked like that year!!!

[Douglas Carpenter]

78. G.W. Bush had a +13.0 based on this formula

you can see all the numbers for every general election since 1948 on the graph in the bottom half of the same page as the article:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

[RayOfHope]

80. Well, this isn't 2004. Its 2008, and we have to pick a new pres.

In 2004 (and I do think the election was rigged, but lets pretend for a moment it wasn't), many people voted for the "devil they knew rather than the devil they didn't". We can't choose an incumbent this time.

[gblady]

24. my area, too

is Obama-land...know only one McLame supporter...a multi-millionaire who doesn't want the tax hikes.

[Quixote1818]

25. I have found just the opposit this year from years past

I work with a lot of Republicans and several of them have said they are going to sit this election out. I have never heard them say that before.

[demgrrrll]

28. When I was canvassing yesterday some Republicans told me that

they are going to sit this one out too because they do not like McCain. The concerned original poster should find a pub board and start a thread about that concern.

[Name removed]

26. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[CK_John]

29. Your disrepect of women and Hillary is part of the problem. n/t

[Douglas Carpenter]

40. Sen. Obama's lead over Sen. McCain among woman voters is quite wide and holding strong

"A recent national opinion poll of women voters shows Democratic candidate Barack Obama with a commanding lead over Republican candidate John McCain for the November presidential election."

http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-08-06-voa57.cfm

snip:"The survey showed that 76 percent of women who supported Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries now say they will vote for Obama. Eighteen percent of Clinton supporters say they will vote for McCain. Despite disappointment among many, especially older women at Clinton's loss, the survey shows that a majority of women blame her loss on the candidate herself and her campaign strategists. Only 21 percent said they believe she lost "because she is a woman." And as pollster Conway points out, most women credit Hillary Clinton with paving the way for future female presidential candidates."

Andrew Kohut is president of the Pew Research Center and a leading pollster. He told VOA that his centers' recent polls also show Obama with a solid lead over McCain among women, comparable to former Vice President Al Gore's strong support from women voters in the 2000 election."

snip:

"Kohut said polls show Obama running better among women than the 2004 Democratic nominee, Senator John Kerry, was at this point in the race."

[Name removed]

70. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JoFerret]

31. Obama has an excellent chance of winning big

But less of a chance with your kind of "support."

[Bluzmann57]

32. Well, first of all, DU isn't all of the USA

Just a small part of it. And secondly, here in eastern Iowa, there is all kinds of support for Obama. We can't stop working, but I do think Obama will win and win fairly handily provided the repubs don't steal it again.
Within my immediate family, my parents, sister, brother in law, daughter, her boyfriend, and my present girlfriend are planning to vote for Obama. So I will repeat, take nothing for granted, keep working our asses off, and I believe Obama will win. So call me a fool if you will.

[quaker bill]

33. I only know

one person who will state that she will vote for McCain. I have not seen a lot of political bumperstickers yet, but all of them I have seen are Obama stickers. I haven't seen a McCain sticker yet. This area went for Kerry on '04 but only by a mere handful of votes.

I can't imagine how McCain has a chance to make it even close.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

34. Obama easily wins NY.

NYC alone will cancel out any upstate racists.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1199

21-point lead in NYS.

[mvd]

36. PA had a lot of Hillary supporters, but..

I haven't noticed much lasting resentment here. I haven't even heard many people talking about the race right now, and if anything, some Repukes in my extended family are pretty anti-McCain.

PA polls continue to look fine.

Gallup daily tracking continues to show a stable 3 point Obama lead today, and even Rasmussen looks better.

[Arkana]

37. Thanks for your concern.

[cliffordu]

38. Why be so naive???

Tell us all it's a 25% loss for Obama!!!!!

:rofl:

[Erin Elizabeth]

39. It's cliche, but your post is begging for it:

I live in Texas. During the primaries, you couldn't even physically move in the middle school cafeteria we were all crammed in to caucus for Obama. There were so many people in there, the fire marshall came out. And that was just my precinct, I had no idea there were even that many Democrats IN my precinct. They had to put another precinct in the boy's gym, a third in the girl's gym, and the fourth met outside because there was nowhere else they could fit (the library was far too small). And that was just my little four precinct reporting area. People had to park up to half a mile away and walk it. JUST FOR THE PRIMARY.

Now I see bumper stickers, signs, buttons, shirts on people, you name it. I've seen one lonely McCain 2008 sticker and as I passed him, I saw the passengers in the car on the other side of him LITERALLY point and laugh at the guy. Pointing and laughing. I had to admit I got a chuckle out of finally seeing one. How pathetic.

And remember-I live in Texas. People won't even discuss Bush around here anymore--even people who were stupid enough to vote for him twice. They feel hoodwinked. Taken. Fooled. And they don't want to talk about it, LOL.

So yeah, I think I'm safe in saying Obama will win. McCain is no competition.

[eshfemme]

84. Thank you for that image!

My best friend is from and living in TX and he's an Obama man himself. Frankly, he fits the Republican mold on certain issues but being a minority and an intelligent man, he obviously isn't very hot about the GOP.

[TexasObserver]

41. Maybe you're simply projecting.

You could well be projecting based upon your dislike of all things Obama, and that would explain why you fail to see that Obama has deep and widespread supporter, particularly at DU.

[CK_John]

46. After Gore and Kerry, I don't get too attached to any candidate. n/t

[TexasObserver]

56. Did everything around you tell you Gore and Kerry would lose?

Or is your antennae only tuned to the Obama channel?

[CK_John]

63. I was suprised by Gore but I didn't think Kerry had a chance. n/t

[darius15]

42. Why are we dealing in extremes here at DU?

Obama is not UP by 25 as some people seem to think. He isn't DOWN by 15. In truth, he's probably up 1 or 2 percent. But what matters most is he is doing much better in the Electoral College than McCain is.

I certainly don't think this is going to be a cakewalk, but we need to stay confident and positive.

[PresidentObama]

44. Are you on crack? n/t

[Fleshdancer]

45. The majority of people I know here in Austin will be voting for Obama

Obama stickers are everywhere.

[PresidentObama]

47. According to the OPer, they must be lying. The bumper sticker is to cover up the 'racism'

:eyes:

[PresidentObama]

48. I know one thing. Your know-it-all attitude sure as hell won't win Obama anything.

My father and both brothers are voting for Obama.

A lot of my friends, and family are.

And oh by the way, my dad's a closet racist.

[CK_John]

51. Sounds personal, but I'll get over it. n/t

[PresidentObama]

54. So what have you done to help Senator Obama, today?

If you doubt he can win, go out and help him.

Otherwise, move out of the way and get out of our way.

No one said it'll be easy. But, hey, at least some of us are ACTUALLY trying.

[CK_John]

65. I will vote for him. n/t

[PresidentObama]

66. That's it? Fine, get out of our way then.

Some of us are going to help, instead of whine.

Win, lose, or draw--you just admitted you aren't doing shit.

[elkston]

49. I doubt anyone here thinks this is going to be a "cakewalk"

But we are confident in the possibility of a win.

Personally, I do think there will be a slight occurrence of the "Bradley Effect".

I say maybe 3% of those who say they will vote for Obama when polled, will actually vote for McCain. Furthermore, most of the "undecided" will probably vote for McCain. These are people who have actually made up thier mind (for McSame), but want to appear as though they are giving Obama a fair shake so as not to seem "racist".

For these reasons, I will feel more comfortable when Obama consistently polls in double digits leads against McCain. We can win this thing but we need to hit strong against McCain and Obama also needs a few major "smackdown" moments to really win the confidence of these stalwart white males.

I think the campaign strategy of being positive in national ads, and then hitting hard with regional negative ads might be the right one.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

50. You're kidding, right?

I have yet to see one single McCain bumper sticker, but Obama stickers are common. A few lawn signs re turning up, as well. I know a few die-hard Republicans who will reluctantly vote for McCain (if they feel motivated to vote at all), but there's no enthusiasm for him. In contrast, Obama is attracting people to all kinds of events and rallies. Of course it won't be a cakewalk, but to say there's no support for him is hogwash.

[CK_John]

55. As posted many times, I don't believe McCain will be on the ballot, That's another topic. n/t

[PresidentObama]

57. OK, now I know you're nuts.

[onenote]

106. which is why many here give your posts the zero credence they deserve

[H2O Man]

53. McCain is polling

at about 40%. Thus, you are appearing to suggest that Obama is getting about 25%. If this is what you are saying, there are two possibilities:

{1} Dyslexia: It could be that Obama is actually getting 52% in the polls you are reading; or

{2} A Remedial Math course would be beneficial.

[CK_John]

60. In this area Obama will be lucky to get 25%. n/t

[H2O Man]

64. Yet he will

carry the state. There are, of course, pockets of conservatives and other backward-thinking people in NY, like in every state. But they will be of little significance on election day.

[mkultra]

96. then perhaps your problems are tied to your geography

[Ichingcarpenter]

102. No, he has a reality problem

or a disinformation problem.

[JustAnotherGen]

59. My parents are up in Rochester

I'm from there (Now in NJ). . . They are firmly in Obama's court. Most of the people I know are in Obama's court. A few Republicans I know - are seriously contemplating for Obama. They don't have a comfort level they had with the Ghoul or Mittens in regards to McCain. They'd rather have a (to quote a colleague of mine from worker) devil they don't know than the one they do - who doesn't seem focused on the economy.

[Kaleko]

62. Voter registrations tell a much more hopeful story

From Aug. 5, 2008 -

Election Report: Democrat, independent registration up; Republicans down

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2008/08/05/report-democrat-independent-registration-up-republicans-down/

The report also said that Democrats have gained percentage-wise in 15 of the 26 states while Republicans gained ground in six. Overall, the total number of registered Democrats gained by 214,656 while Republican ranks dropped by 1,407,971. The Times also said that independent registration is up, growing at a faster rate than either Democrats or Republicans in 12 states.

From July 2008 - A New Electorate in the Making?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/a_new_electorate_in_the_making.html

In the 29 states (plus the District of Columbia) where voter affiliation is kept by party, the Democrats have scored perceptible gains since the presidential election of 2004 while the Republicans have suffered significant losses. To be specific, the number of registered Democrats in party registration states has grown by nearly 700,000 since President George W. Bush was reelected in November 2004, while the total of registered Republicans has declined by almost 1 million.

[quakerboy]

67. Err..

yeah. about that. huh.

[backscatter712]

68. What are you smoking?

In my circles, it's the McCain supporters who are the minority.

[LWolf]

69. I've never thought Obama would win.

At least, not easily. And, if it's close, there's election fraud to swing it in McCain's favor. I think he has a better chance of beating McCain than a stronger opponent, though.

During the primaries, I saw a total of 3 signs. Two Obama, one HRC. No republican.

This is a republican territory.

Since Obama clinched the nomination, I've seen a total of one bumper sticker, for McCain, and no signs.

I have no clue what my community is thinking, other than that, the local liberal community radio station talks about Obama a lot. I don't listen to them much, though, because their signal doesn't reach my town. I only pick it up when I'm driving south.

I've been on summer break, and generally hibernating away from the people I usually have contact with; I'm due back to work next week. We'll see if there's any chatter. Politics is usually a proscribed subject, except when the local union reps bring up candidates and bills. At work, up until summer break, there was still a car with a Kerry '04 sticker, and one other with a Bush/Cheney '04 sticker. Neither car belonged to those I have regular direct contact with.

I'm sure that things will heat up locally after the conventions.

[question everything]

72. Five votes here from immediate family (nt)

[qwlauren35]

73. Not sure where you are but...

I know people in upstate New York -Kerhonksen? who think he's awesome.

A good way to know how Obama is doing in a state is to go to my.barackobama.com and see how often people are throwing ***fundraisers*** for him. If the numbers are high, then Obama is doing fine there.

However, I have NO illusions that this will be a cakewalk.

[Shine]

74. "down about 15%"?? No way. I completely disagree with you.

I actually think he's doing much better than the M$M lets on and I'm not the only one who thinks so:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/no-cliffhanger-more-like-an-obama-landslide/2008/07/27/1217097059908.html

[AZBlue]

76. It is NO cakewalk and if we don't fight as hard as we can until Nov. 4th we're fools.

However, I believe support for Obama is much higher than you state. I only know one person voting for McCain and about 5 or 6 who are undecided (although most are leaning toward Obama). The rest are all 100% Obama.

[onetinsoldier]

77. a 3% shift

basically what i have done is subtract 3% from what obama receives in any poll ,i think this is a more accurate "poll" for a number of reasons 1.mccain people are more likely to go to the polls and be able to vote and have there vote counted 2.there is definitely latent racism and some people who tell a poll taker that they will vote for obama or more likely to change their mind when it gets time to vote than vice versa etc

[RayOfHope]

79. I live in SW MO. There are tons more Obama stickers already than there were Kerry in 04

I was at a function last night with people from a *heavily* republican area. Someone brought up politics and they ALL voiced support for Obama. I had to pick my jaw up off the floor. I don't think you are giving him enough credit.

[PresidentObama]

83. I'm in SW MO, too. In Springfield. And I see plenty of Obama stickers, and have seen two McCain ones

I had only seen two until yesterday. Someone in my apartment complex got a McCain bumper sticker. Ick, and she parks in our lot.

And I have YET to see ANY McCain signs. Come to think of it, I saw only or two during the primary and I saw plenty of Romney and Huckabee and Paul signs.

[Nipper1959]

81. Are you smoking crack? Meth?

I do not know what planet you are from but even iin rural redneck Wisconsin Obama is kicking ass. Whereever you live must be populated by the most ignorant Americans in thne land.

[Butch350]

82. TROLL !!?

[Ichingcarpenter]

85. "Obama will be at ski lodge in August while Hillary will be speaking

at the convention."

[saltpoint]

86. I've actually been to a cakewalk. It was fiercely dull especially if you

saw the cakes on the prize table. Yuck City. I wouldn't have taken a bite of most of them under threat of torture.

That said, I certainly agree that no cakewalk is before us, although I like all the cakes on the prize table this time.

McCain is an antiquated kook of a Republican.
The fundies distrust him after his savage public attacks on Falwell & Robertson in 2000 against Dubya.
Dubya's support is lukewarm to the extent it would help at all and --
-- it won't help much, since the last 8 years have been disatrous.

Public polling indicates trends away fom the issues with which Republicans have defined themselves.
Registration is up significantly coast to coast and the trendline shows very heavy blue registration.
The fundies are holding McCain hostage to choose a nutbag suitable to their limitations as veep.

Minnesota, site of the GOP convention, was theoretically supposed to be a purple battleground state --
--but Obama leads there, fairly comfortably.

The Republicans scheduled their convention in Minneapolis Sept 1 - 4, overlapping the Labor Day Weekend and during close by the Jerry Lewis Telethon. People are not going to be cancelling outdoor barbeques, beach trips, and muskellunge weekends to listen to a pack of undead Pukes blathering about Islamofascism and tax-and-spend liberals. Worst timing of any national convention in my lifetime, bar none.

Republicans have no momentum on any issue. They shot their wad on gay marriage and terrorism and now the voters want explanations for the absence of level playing fields with jobs and wages, and they are not in the mood for more bullshit on Iraq. McCain has embraced all of Bush's negatives with these issues, and he will be held accountable accordingly.

Independents are crucial to any Republican competitive race and independents are expressing a very strong tilt toward Obama.

The first debate has not taken place but it will come soon enough and if McCain has any sense of survival at all, he will bail out. Obama is going to chop him to tiny bits.

[blogslut]

87. Best laugh I've had all day

Thanks!

[CreekDog]

88. Is this what you think of Obama supporters:

"I doubt Obama gets 51% due to being non citizens, not registered, incapable of making any decisions, underage, etc."

which seems like what you are saying about Obama supporters. :eyes:

[cali]

89. another totallty bogus and delusional post from you

that's completely made up bullshit. Shocker.

[CreekDog]

90. blast from the past Ck_John:

back in February you said Obama will get 1 or 2 more states than McGovern (McGovern carried one state), so you are saying maybe Obama will win 2 or 3 states TOTAL. And you said there was "no way Obama carries California".

Pollster.com has Obama up by an average of 52-34 in California.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4479848

[Ichingcarpenter]

92. Yes DU searches are really revealing

for accessing the realties of the poster.

[sniffa]

93. I was wondering what the fuck his problem was

Thanks for the search.

I doubt it was necessary but the smack in the face proof is always welcome.

:patriot:

[AtomicKitten]

105. thanks for the perspective on this

[HughMoran]

91. Lots of Obama signs here in So NH

Also good support for Jeanne Shaheen - the Dem trying to unseat a Republican Senator.

[MrSlayer]

94. I think he can win, I don't know that he will.

Lots of racists still out there.

[blondeatlast]

95. "...non citizens, not registered, incapable of making any decisions, underage, etc."

Why are you here at DU?

:puke:

[CreekDog]

101. i pointed this quote out too

the OP insulted tons of people with that quip.

[JerseygirlCT]

97. Plenty of friends and family. Plenty of bumperstickers and lawn signs

CT will be strongly for Obama, don't fear.

Even the family I know voted for dumbass last time seem to be wavering on McCain this go round and considering Obama.

[Blondiegrrl]

98. That's odd. In my "racist" state of WV, I'm seeing a lot of support for Obama.

Obama signs all over the place in downtown Charleston and in the suburbs where I live, and only one or two McCain signs. And that's a state that Obama lost to your gal Hillary.

Perhaps a glass of milk will help with that bitter taste in your mouth.

[last_texas_dem]

99. I think you are widely off with your 15-percent down prediction, but

I also give you credit for going against the grain versus the many on here predicting an Obama landslide with little or no doubt about it. If Obama wins, it is not going to be easy and it is likely to be a very close election. It has become obvious that McCain has most of the American media pulling for him, and that is a very powerful force to have on your side.

[Phoonzang]

100. Yeah...I was with a bunch of friends last night and

they are all very excited and supportive of Obama, but not a single one of them actually thinks he's going to win. They all have stories about how their mothers, grandmas, uncles, etc. who are staunch Democrats say they won't vote for him. They make up excuses as to why they won't vote for him, but it's clear that it's because he's black.

So yeah....Obama's not going to win. I'd up your 15 percent to maybe 35 percent. Maybe it's a mercy, considering the mess that he'd have to deal with. Still...I'm going to help him as much as I can.

[kitfalbo]

104. heh

Aren't we supposed to have moderators for this stuff