8/7 Election Model: OBAMA 343EV (NO FRAUD); 260EV (RIGGED: 3% UNCOUNTED, 4% SWITCHED) - x (TIA)

[tiptoe]

Full update: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=506576&mesg_id=506576

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: August 7

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

8/07/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 46.7 (51.89) 
 43.3 (48.11) 
 46.6 (52.47) 
 42.2 (47.53) 
52.69
47.31
53.32
46.68
343
195

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided-Voter Allocation 
5-Poll Mov Avg             2-Party          

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Rasmussen
Gallup
CBS
Time
AP/Ipsos

CNN
USA/Gallup
Dem Corp
FOX
NBC

NYT/CBS
ABC/WP
Zogby
Quinnipiac
Newsweek

Date
            
8/06
8/06
8/05
8/04
8/04

7/29
7/27
7/24
7/23
7/21

7/14
7/13
7/13
7/13
7/10

Size
            
3000LV
2679RV
906RV
808RV
1002RV

914RV
791LV
1004LV
900RV
1003RV

1462RV
1000RV
1039LV
1725LV
1037RV

MoE
            
1.8%
1.9%
3.3%
3.4%
3.1%

3.2%
3.5%
3.1%
3.3%
3.1%

2.6%
3.1%
3.0%
2.4%
3.0%

Obama
            
47
47
45
46
48

51
45
50
41
47

45
50
47
50
44

McCain
            
46
43
39
41
42

44
49
45
40
41

39
42
40
41
41

Spread
            
1
4
6
5
6

7
(4)
5
1
6

6
8
7
9
3

 

Obama
            
46.6
47.4
47.0
48.0
47.0

46.8
45.6
46.6
46.0
47.8

47.2
47.8
47.8
48.2
47.6

McCain
            
42.2
41.8
43.0
44.2
44.0

43.8
42.8
41.4
40.4
40.6

40.6
40.8
41.4
42.4
42.8

|

Obama
            
52.5
53.1
52.2
52.1
51.6

51.7
51.6
53.0
53.2
54.1

53.8
54.0
53.6
53.2
52.7

Win Prob
               
99.7
99.9
91.0
87.9
85.2

84.2
81.3
96.9
97.4
99.5

99.8
99.4
99.0
99.6
95.6

 

Obama
            
53.3
53.9
53.0
52.7
52.4

52.4
52.6
53.8
54.2
54.8

54.5
54.6
54.3
53.8
53.4

McCain
            
46.7
46.1
47.0
47.3
47.6

47.6
47.4
46.2
45.8
45.2

45.5
45.4
45.7
46.2
46.6

Diff
         
6.6
7.8
6.0
5.4
4.8

4.9
5.1
7.6
8.3
9.5

9.0
9.3
8.6
7.7
6.7

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
96.5
93.6
93.6

93.0
92.5
99.2
99.4
99.9

100.0
99.8
99.7
99.9
98.5

 

 

First, the good news: The current National model (which includes today’s Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls) has Obama’s projected 5-poll average vote share at 53.3%, an increase from 51.9% a week ago.

===
Click LINK at top for full update.

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[tiptoe]

1. Now the bad news: The aggregate state model has him at 52.7%; it was 53.5% last week. Based on the .

... 5000-election trial Monte Carlo simulation his expected electoral vote is 343, also reduced from 370 last week.


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