The Daily Widget – Friday, Aug 8 – Obama 343, McCain 195 – Obama’s Lead-Potentials Tell a Story

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. TIDBITS – Obama’s Lead-Potentials Tell a Story


The M$M wants you to see this:




But they don’t want you to see this:




Because if you put them both on the same scale, they look like this:




Orange = OMG! The race is sooo close! Why hasn’t Obama put it away already?!

Green = Oh geez, we can’t make any money with this! Is Obama anorexic?


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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS

I love it when two polls with different methodologies are released for the same state on the same day. Although both polls now show Wisconsin as Weak Blue, one of the polls shows 18% Undecided and the other poll shows only 5% Undecided. They ended up in the same ballpark purely by accident, imo.

Wisconsin and Oregon each take a step to the right today, as Massachusetts goes left and returns to the Strong Blue category. Of the states that changed categories, Obama is only 1 for 3 today.


Alabama Obama 34, McCain 47, Nader 2, Barr 1 (AEA/Capital Survey, 8/4, +/- 4.1, 571 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 54, McCain 38 (Rasmussen, 8/5, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New York Obama 57, McCain 36 (Quinnipiac University, 8/4, +/- 2.7, 1353 LV)
Oregon Obama 48, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 8/4, +/- 4.0, 629 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 44, McCain 38 (Wisconsin Policy Research, 8/4, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 8/5, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

(on edit: Title change)

[Alexander]

1. Nice to see Obama outperforming Kerry.

Maybe we can win this thing.

[phrigndumass]

2. Yes, we're playing it much better this time :)

By this time four years ago, Kerry had picked his VP, the convention had already taken place, and that gave the repubs time to run the Swift Boat ads non-stop. We played our hand too soon in 2004.

:donut: Good morning, Alexander :hi:

[tekisui]

3. knr!

I wonder how long the M$M can prop up the false horse race? I guess with millions of dollars, they can go a very long time.

[phrigndumass]

4. The recent dip has made it easier for them

Talk about taking advantage of a situation. They can increase the bottom line by misinforming the public.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good morning!

I'm glad to see that Mass went back to strong Obama. When do you think Maine gets polled again?

:hi: :bounce: <--(LMD)

[phrigndumass]

6. A bounce for LMD ...

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :hi:
:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :hi:
:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :hi:

Rasmussen probably won't conduct a new Maine poll for another two weeks, but Survey USA has begun polling heavier than recently so we might see a Maine poll from them.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. Off to work kick

It's Friday! :D

[phrigndumass]

8. .

[writes3000]

9. Thank you for these. They really are informative and fascinating. Real info. n/t

[phrigndumass]

10. yw, W3K :)

Thanks! :hi:

[Demeter]

11. Nice New Comparison Graph, P-Man!

You can write the book on how to undo the lies with statistics.

It's still nervewracking, though. So many days, so many opportunities for something to blow up.
With any luck, it will blow up on the GOP side.....thanks to the spiffy economy and the glorious 2.5 wars they got us into!

I really want us to blow the GOP away, forever. Is that too much to ask, after all they've done to us?

[phrigndumass]

12. It's definitely not too much to ask :)

And the scenario that will usher that era in is ... Demeter for Vice President!

:patriot:

:hi:

[Demeter]

13. We Would Lose for Sure!

I'm no politician. I'm a wonk--and proud of it! Let me whisper into the right (or left) ears, and stand back!

[Willo]

14. Very nice. I have a question

on the Strong/Weak/Lean chart. What do the (+) numbers represent? DC +81 really stands out.

Thanks.

[phrigndumass]

15. The (+) numbers are each candidate's lead in those states

If the column is blue, it is Obama's lead. If the column is red, it is McCain's lead.

:hi:

[Willo]

16. So Obama is leading in DC by 81 points or percent?

And why is his lead there so huge?

Thanks, btw :)

[phrigndumass]

17. Kerry won in Washington DC with 90% to 9% for Bush in 2004 :)

That's +81 points :D

We'll never be goose-egged as long as DC exists, lol

YW WIllo!

[Willo]

18. Cool then.

LOL at WIllo. I asked them to change it to Willo and they did.
Since then each login is a mystery as to which version will appear :shrug: :)

[phrigndumass]

19. Ha! It shows as "Willo" in the reply but "WIllo" up in the reply links below the OP

:crazy:

Somewhere a bug needs to be squashed. :D