PPP Florida poll: McCain 47%, Obama 44% (Obama led last month)

[highplainsdem]

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/floridapolitics/entries/2008/08/06/dem_poll_mccain_up_4744_in_fla.html

Dem poll: McCain up 47-44 in Fla.
By George Bennett | Wednesday, August 6, 2008, 10:28 AM


New poll by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (see it here) shows Republican John McCain with a 47-to-44 percent lead over Democrat Barack Obama in Florida.

The poll also shows Republican Sen. Mel Martinez, who’s up for reelection in 2010, with a weak 24 percent approval rating

PPP surveyed 807 likely Florida voters July 30-Aug. 2 and the poll has a 3.5 percent margin of error.

PPP’s last Florida, poll, in late June, showed Obama with a 46-44 lead in the state.

That page has a link to the PDF file about the poll on PPP's site.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida_805.pdf


Editing to add that I'm getting an error message with that PDF file (link should be ok; I checked it against PPP's site, too).

Another link, the same release from PPP, in a PDF file at the Orlando Sentinel site (which I'm not having any trouble reaching):

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/files/PPP_Release_Florida_805.pdf

[jezebel]

1. This poll was taken last Wed. through Sat. at the lowest Obama was in the national polls. He has

started rising again in the nationals so hopefully in FLa as well.

[my3boyz]

2. Whatever....McCain should be way ahead there. It is a Republican

state AND it is full of old people. Should be McCain's demographic. Having said that, a 3 pt lead in August does not guarantee a McCain win.

[highplainsdem]

Some internal poll numbers (from the Orlando Sentinel, since I'm having

trouble with PPP's PDF file):

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2008/08/public-policy-p.html

According to the latest North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling survey, Republican John McCain has re-taken a small lead in Florida and Democrat Barack Obama is losing the edge among Hispanic voters.

The Hispanic finding seems to totally conflict with the Quinnipiac University poll from last week, so take it for what it's worth. From the release:

"John McCain has retaken the lead in Florida after trailing Barack Obama by a small margin last month. The candidates split the independent vote, while McCain receives 84% support from Republicans and Obama gets 76% support from Democrats. The Democrats crossing over to support McCain are disproportionately older white females, an indication that Hillary Clinton's base may not be completely behind Obama in the Sunshine State.

"Obama has slipped with Hispanic voters in the last month, leading among them just 48-45 after holding a 51-37 advantage in PPP's previous Florida poll. The numbers show an unusual gender gap, with McCain leading by 11 points among women while trailing by 5 points with men. Last month's results similarly showed Obama doing eight points better with men than women, a trend PPP has not seen in any of its other state by state polling."

[book_worm]

3. this little tidbit caught my eye: Obama gets 76% of the dem vote and among dems supporting McCain

"disaportionatly" are older white females.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida_805.pdf

[highplainsdem]

8. Yes, HRC would definitely help him there.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

14. And McCain is leading with women and trailing with men? No fugging way. nt

[Thrill]

4. If any state is this close. Obama will win it. Because they can't account for

the motivated AA and young vote.

[MattNC]

5. yes, they can n/t

[book_worm]

6. it was close in 2000 and they stole it.

[speedoo]

7. Florida is in play, and that's good for Obama.

The debates and Obama's superior ground game could turn the state blue.

[JCMach1]

9. It's the Oil Drilling issue and it will cost Obama Florida

[highplainsdem]

10. No. The internal numbers show he's losing support among groups that supported Clinton.

If she's on the ticket as VP, that should change.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Could change.

Because you can kiss goodbye a few of the supporters who back him now. Then say bye to the following states:

Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
Virginia
Indiana
North Carolina
Iowa
Montana
The Dakotas
Wisconsin
Minnesota

And possibly winning Georgia.

That takes a probable EC blowout and makes it another tight race, just like 2000 and 2004. Florida, regardless of what is done, will be tight and they can steal it just as easily.

So I'd rather soundly beat McCain without Florida than to lose the possibility of winning those 89 votes and have a tighter race in Florida.

You add Clinton to the ticket and you're basically hoping for what happened to Kerry in 2004. Right now, Obama's numbers are probably at 273 without Clinton and Ohio and Florida listed as toss-ups. You bring Clinton on the ticket and that changes to possibly a 242 base with hope of winning Virginia or North Carolina out the window.

[JCMach1]

13. I honestly don't care what the internals say. Just look at the overall poll numbers

McCain visits Florida and announces flipflop on drilling= Obama up in the polls.

Obama shifts his position on drilling= now MOE, or advantage McCain (depending on the poll).


As a native Floridian, drilling is a HUGE issue in Florida. It's one that cuts across ideological levels. Even many of the Repugs down there don't want to see what brought them to Florida destroyed (i.e. the beaches and water).

[Zynx]

12. If Obama was doing better among Democrats he would have the lead here.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

15. If 24% of Democrats will stop being idiots he will. nt

[Hippo_Tron]

16. Florida is one of the few states that has trended to the Republican in the past 8 years

As opposed to going the other way. They clearly showed they weren't Bush fatigued by electing Jeb's anointed successor in 2006 while the rest of the country was going out of their way to toss Republicans out of office. I'm surprised Obama is even keeping it close.

[David Zephyr]

17. With Hillary on the ticket as VP, Florida is ours.

And that's a good thing.

[retread]

18. Florida will have gay marriage and vouchers on the ballot. n/t

[Sancho]

19. Drilling, drilling, drilling......

it will cost Obama the state if there is drilling offshore to Florida.

[eshfemme]

20. From what I understand

Obama's campaign strategy is rather flexible in that he's not aiming for the standard victory. If things work out, he could win this thing without Florida. From what I gather of the nature of Florida politics, that could be a good thing for us as things there are really messed up. Plus, I'm beginning to suspect that it's not even a swing state but a red state that occasionally votes blue.

But I'm not too worried as Obama's been stable on the long term polls. He really does seem to be like a rubber ball-- he bounces back with ease.

[lojasmo]

21. Your M.O. is showing.

Seriously, get over it.

[davidpdx]

22. No kidding

Well put...