Could Kerry Win MONTANA?

[liberalpragmatist]

Ok. I know that if he wins Montana, it'll probably just be the cherry on top of the frosting on top of the cake - in other words, he'll have already won in a landslide.

But I noticed that there hasn't been much Montana polling. I've also noticed that Montana's a very libertarian state and that the state GOP is quite unpopular. Apparently the Dem nominee for Governor is very popular. And Montana went to Clinton in '92 and just barely went to Dole in '96. Of course, in both races, Perot siphoned off a number of votes. Still, would it be possible for Kerry to win in Montana?

[bluestateguy]

1. No

Last poll had Bush up 20 in Montana. Even if Kerry closed in, the Nader vote is too high in Montana to enable him to win it.

I suppose if Kerry was leading in the national polls by 15% he would have the luxury of campaigning in Montana, but since that is not the case, decisions have to be made and resources allocated appropriately.

[Parche]

2. Montana

Kerry will kick them in the Butte

[RichardRay]

3. Just shortly before he wins Wyoming

although I'm working on that.

Richard Ray - Jackson Hole, WY

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. It is an uphill batte

but there are an awful lot of disaffected Bushies here. There is a relatively high percentage of veterans and an active Veterans for Kerry group. We are working hard to register new voters and a competitive Governors race with a Dem candidate with name recognition will help. But with only one poll taken this year it is hard to get any idea of the reality of the numbers. Nader did really well here in 2000 and I don't think that will repeat. I see mostly Kerry enthusiasm but I'm in a relatively liberal area.

[ibegurpard]

5. He'd stand a better chance here than any of the surrounding states.

Clinton won here in 1992 mainly because of a good showing by Perot. Conservatism here isn't really religious-based, though. It's more anti-Federal government and anti-regulation. Lots of blue collar people here that should be Democrats and, I believe, could be if the message was right and they were worked.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. He would need to push

on three areas: the economy and health care, highlighting his hunting and fishing past and reminding people that you need habitat to hunt, and his forest plan , with it's emphasis on communities. But they'd have to advertise about it, and I think the money is going elsewhere...