Remember When Obama Didn't Fight Back Against The Clintons?

[MannyGoldstein]

That worked out just fine.

Obama is doing the smart thing with McCain - keeping his cool while McSame's rage causes stupid moves.

November's going to be like shooting fish in a barrel.

[thewiseguy]

1. and he could not close the deal.

Hillary's negative ads actually worked IMO.

Like it or not negative ads work.

[ProSense]

2. And then she lost.

Or did she lose because people got tired of the negative BS?

[thewiseguy]

8. She lost because of what took place early on

Once she went negative and especially after the 3 am ad and the subsequent ads she was winning more and had the momentum. In the end that was not enough.

[ProSense]

17. Your memory of what happened is rusty.

Penn's preferred formula of wanting to go negative earlier was BS. If Hillary had launched a negative campaign much earlier, the outcome would still be the same.

[thewiseguy]

20. You are making an assumption there

can you explain why Obama's numbers in Texas dived? Especially after the 3 am ad.

[ProSense]

24. What?

Hillary was expected to win Texas.

This revisionism of the primary changes nothing: Hillary ran a lousy campaign and lost.

Her campaign offers no useful model for Obama.

[thewiseguy]

27. Go and look at the Texas polls

Obama was up there. I expected him to win and finish the deal in Texas.

I am not trying to make a point here that Hillary won this race because she did not. However given my obsession with the polls during the primary race, I think she was doing much better after her negative ads.

[ProSense]

29. Give it up.

You're wrong. Obama came from behind. Hillary is the one who couldn't hold on.

[thewiseguy]

34. No Hillary came from behind in Texas

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html

In fact look at this graph. Obama was leading Hillary until 2 days before the Texas primary. Her numbers started going up right after her 3 am ad.

Up until Texas it was Obama who would come from behind and make the race close or win it. In Texas that trend was reversed.

[NYC_SKP]

30. Too much TV, maybe.

All the shit about momentum...bullshit.

Take a look at the order of the primaries....it happens that California and West Virginia, for example, are quite different in their demographic.

The dude won, and he won big.

Black dude named Hussein Obama vs inevitable connected Hillary Clinton?

Very improbable, yet he won.

[Beacool]

35. Pooch, I beg to differ.

He didn't win big, McCain won big over Huckabee, Obama never closed the deal. He ended up ahead by only 127 PD and got about half of the popular votes. He won thanks to the superdelegates, that's not winning big.

;-)

[NYC_SKP]

38. Hey Beacool!

If BHO and HRC were identical twins, with the same pros and cons going in, then we could say it was a squeaker.

And while they each had a disadvantage, one a woman and the other a man, the numbers of female governors and mayors compared to the numbers of blacks in the same high offices suggest that he may have had the bigger disadvantage.

But even putting that aside, Barack had no name recognition and far less institutional support, and on those differences alone I feel comfortable saying that his was a "big win".

But we can still disagree, and go on to win, right?

BTW, how cool is it that he will speak on the anniversary of "I have a dream" and she'll speak on the anniversary of the ratification of the 19th amendment?!

Pooch, I love that! :hi:

[Beacool]

39. Yeah, on that we can agree.

The symbolism of a black man speaking on the anniversary of Dr. King's "I have a Dream" speech is excellent.

:)

[chimpymustgo]

37. We won't have superdelegates to pull him across the finish line in November.

[Beacool]

40. You just made me laugh with your truism!!!

:rofl:

[Whisp]

he closed it, what are you talking about? Hillary's negs did NOT work.

[thewiseguy]

7. Yes they did.

Obama was up in the polls for Texas and once she aired the 3 am ad, she managed to change the dynamics of the race.

If it was not for early voting when Obama was up, he would have lost Texas by a much bigger margin. Any Obama win in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and etc would have finished the deal early on.

[MannyGoldstein]

10. I'm Confused... Who Won The Nomination?

All we *really* know is that Obama's efforts worked. The Clintons were going after him hard even before Super Tuesday - remember Hillary making fun of the speeches, big rallies, and the heaven's opening?

[thewiseguy]

13. Hillary had effectively lost after Super Tuesday

She was winning more states later when they started going after Barack. Gloves were coming off and we were blaming Barack for not going negative on Hillary and losing races.

I understand why Barack did not want to go negative then for the sake of party's unity but now its different.

McCain's new campain manager is an asshole who likes to be aggressive. The Obama camp should set the tone for this campaign. Unfortunately they have not done much of that lately. They have allowed McCain to set the tone and instead they have been defending themselves.

[27inCali]

28. so the Middle East/Europe trip

and that huge, cinematic speech in Berlin wasn't setting the tone?

McCain's people paniced after than and threw everything they had at him.

and it's still to early to know what the real effect will be with these ads.

plus I think a lot of fence sitters will breathe easier with Obama now that he's said he wouldn't be rigid on drilling.

as much as that bugs us informed progressives, for some reason the rubes in everytown USA seem to think that drilling is going to do some kind of good.

[Whisp]

12. he did not lose Texas, try again.

[thewiseguy]

15. I was talking about the primary.

Had Obama won the Texas primary the race would have been over and done. He was leading in the polls for several weeks and yet Hillary came up with the 3 am ad and managed to come from behind and win Texas.

[Whisp]

ah, I see, the primaries vs. the 'cockeyed' thing.

:rofl:

[thewiseguy]

21. You are forgetting that I was an Obama supporter through the primaries?

I participated and voted for Obama in caucuses.

Did you seriously forget how upset some of us were with Obama for not going negative? He even admitted that perhaps it would be better if he was more aggressive after losing some later states.

I was laughing my ass off when the 3 am ad came out. Or that Hillary ad in Pennsylvania. Both of those were effective.

[Whisp]

22. no those ads were not effective. she lost. nt

[thewiseguy]

25. OK she lost.

:eyes:

[otohara]

4. He Closed The Deal Before He Couldn't

so don't be pulled into that crap talking point. Clinton FU'ed with the caucus states, she didn't close the deal early on and her kitchen sink came too late.

[MrModerate]

5. Negative ads work, but *stupid* negative ads not so much . . .

I can't imagine that the Moses ad will convince anyone but those already convinced. To most everyone else they'll look desperate and foolish.

Un-presidential.

[CreekDog]

9. they bring down your opponent's numbers only slightly more than your own

that's the problem.

[BlooInBloo]

33. HAHAHA! Yah, they worked. HAHAHAH!!!!

[angee_is_mad]

3. Exactly

People are losing their minds about this. The only people who will be influence by these ads are people who were not going to vote for Obama anyway. This is just an excuse they can use so they will not be viewed as the bigots that they are.

[HardWorkingDem]

6. Just remember, the general election is entirely different from the primary...

I'm not sure yet, but part of me thinks the Obama campaign is playing a cat and mouse game with the McCain campaign - maybe he is laying a bit low waiting to pounce or just giving McCain more time to self-destruct. With that, comparing general elections and the primaries are like comparing cats and dogs. They are entirely different animals and things that work in the primaries don't always work in the general and vice versa.

[MannyGoldstein]

11. He's Gaining Ammo For The The Coup de Grace

Once debate time comes, McCain will be destroyed.

[Whisp]

16. I can feel it.

a low rumble in the distance. machines charged up. pouncing troops ready and able.

you are right, McCain will be destroyed. and I am so happy to be alive to witness it.

[HardWorkingDem]

26. Still, another poster in another thread pointed out...(young blk man beating up old wht man)..

Beating McCain too badly will probably be characterized as a threatening, young black male beating up on an elderly, grandpa like white male....

[AllentownJake]

14. Actually he did go negative back against Hillary

in Ohio, TX, and PA. When he did his poll numbers went down and Hillary's went up. If we wanted a knife fighter Hillary was by far the better choice. Hillary got into his head for about 8 weeks with the Kitchen Sink and if he had kept his cool better I think he would have won the TX primary and kept it within 5 in Ohio.

It was only after he went positive again and Hillary made her mistake with the Gas Tax holiday in Indiana and North Carolina that he sealed the deal.

His issue now is getting this off bullshit talk and back to talk about issues.

[depakid]

18. Dry powder Democrats have such a long history of winning elections and policy battles

that it makes no sense to deviate from that strategy, now that everything's on the line.

[Levgreee]

19. I don't know if you guys remember but he was down by a large margin in Texas

going up 8-10 points to a near tie, within a matter of weeks, is a victory in my mind.

The reason he couldn't "close" is because Hillary started 10-30 points ahead of Obama in many of the later states.

[thewiseguy]

23. You are wrong

Obama actually had the lead in Texas polls for several weeks. I personally thought he would finish the deal there.

Hillary went negative with the 3 am ad and managed to win the primary.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

31. How about Indiana? That was supposed to be a blowout for Clinton.

Instead, it was a squeaker.

[Beacool]

32. Actually, after the media finally started vetting him,

Obama lost most of the primaries after February. Hillary won the majority of them in the latter part of the primary season, and won them all by wide margins (except for IN) despite being outspent 2 to 1 and even 3 to 1 in some states.

You well know that Obama won the majority of his PD through the caucuses and not the primary states. That's where the Clinton campaign failed, not having set a good grassroots organization in the caucus states.

[Skip Intro]

36. He's so awesome.

What do I need with those dumb rights and nature preserves?