I. Arizona is in play.
Here is the current polling:
. . . . . . .MCCAIN . . . OBAMA. . . NADER. . . UNCOMMITTED
July 25-30 . . 43%. . . . .38%. . . . 3%. . . . . . 16%
May 2008 . . . 53 . . . . .38 . . . . NA. . . . . . 9
May 2007 . . . 53 . . . . .36 . . . . NA. . . . . . 11
The first time looking at the AZ polls I saw polls from BCP (associated with the better known Rocky Mountain Polls) and was worried that they might be a 'left leaning' pollster and so tried to dig into their background.
Interestingly they do a lot of work for public opinion for both government and private enterprise and don't normally work for campaigns at all. They go back thirty years and Mr. Haynes served for sixteen years as President of the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce. (Coincidentally Mr. Andrew McCain has recently been appointed Chairman of the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce, effective this month, this coming from his highly successful tenure as Bank Asset Magician - made them disappear without a trace.)
So these pollsters do not have a 'left wing' bias.
I was so curious that I called them and asked them if they were surprised by the poll (the previous one) that indicated that McCain had a problem in Arizona. They responded that they had been predicting to their clients that AZ was on the verge of going blue and that if the candidate wansn't McCain that the Democrats had an excellent chance to win. This is accounted to in large part to the explosive (3%+) annual growth occurring in Arizona, which with Nevada, make up the two fastest growing states in the country.
This poll is only Maricopa County (60% and traditionally Republican) but it is still very significant.
They have 3 reasons for the significant effect
1) McCain has lost his support among Democrats that used to support him. Nader is drawing his support from McCain and Independents and only one in ten of his supporters are Democrats.
2) McCain has lost 22 points among men and now only has a 4 point lead
3) Hispanics have abandoned McCain and support Obama - almost in the same numbers AA do.
FAVORITE SON McCAIN STRENGTH IN ARIZONA SHRINKS. OBAMA GAINS AMONG MEN, DEMOCRATS AND LATINOS.
http://www.brcpolls.com/08/RMP%202008-III-01.pdfIn Arizona, the contest for President of the UnitedStates between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain could prove to be a dilly and is most likely to be decided by which candidate carries Maricopa county where nearly six out of ten Arizona voters reside and which is generally conceded to be the heartland of Republican strength in the state. Yet here in Senator McCain’s back yard, his lead which was a comfortable 15 to 17 points for most of last and this year, has shrunk significantly.
In late July, a survey of 401 voters in Arizona’s most populous county, McCain’s lead over Obama has narrowed to within five points ( 43% for McCain to 38% for Obama). As recently as May of this year, McCain led by 53 to 38 percent. Additional ly, among voters still on the fence, but who admit they are “leaning” toward one of the other, the division is similar. McCain’s narrowing lead traces not to any sudden up-swelling in support for Obama, whose support has hovered around 38 percent for the past year and remains at that level today. Rather, it traces to a
decline in support of McCain, especially among men, registered Independents and Latinos. Simultaneously, the proportion of voters who are uncommitted rose to 16 percent from only nine this May and Ralph Nader drew a small but important three percent, mostly from McCain.
The most obvious explanation for the tightening up of the race is that for the first time in any McCain race we can recollect, the usual 20 to 30 percent of Democrats who defect to McCain are now staying home. Today, only nine percent of Democrats are crossing over to McCain while eleven percent of Republicans are crossing over to Obama. And even if Ralph Nader plays only a small role in this election (he attracts only three percent of voters) it may be an important role because half of those voters are Republicans, 40 percent are Independents and only one in ten are Democrats.
It also appears that
Obama is making some of his most important inroads within the ranks of male voters. For example, in May of 2007 in Arizona, Obama trailed McCain by a whopping 23 points among men. That gap actually rose to 26 percent by May of 2008 but today McCain’s lead among men has collapsed to only four points. Obama’s trip to Europe and the mid-east may have played a significant factor in giving male voters more comfort with Obama’s candidacy and his capacity to relate to and deal with world leaders.
Finally, even though Latino voters have in the past displayed a tendency to favor Democratic candidates, John McCain has long been able to attract from a quarter to a third of their vote. This appears not to be the case today. Seventy- nine percent of
Latinos in this survey say they will vote for Barack Obama while McCain’s share registers at only nine percent. Other Points for Review
II. McCain has a poor showing in the Arizona Primary
Although largely ignored by the Media McCain struggled in the Arizona Primary where he was the only one of the main candidates not achieve 50% in his home state and had the lowest plurality over the second place candidate, despite the fact that the Democratic Primaries had a much more contentious primary battle.
Obama won Illinois with 65%
Clinton won New York with 57%
McCain won Arizona with only 47%
Obama's advantage over Clinton was 32% in Illinois and Clinton had a 17% advantage over Obama in New York, while McCain managed to beat Romney by only 13 points in his home state.
III. Obama raises as much money as McCain in Arizona and the McCain campaign calls Arizona a 'Swing State'
details here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6446699