Gallup daily tracking: Obama 45%, McCain 44%

[mvd]

I don't understand this at all. Unless the McCain ads were working. I think the ads are starting to backfire, though, and the poll will look better tomorrow.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109177/Gallup-Daily-Obama-45-McCain-44.aspx

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

1. Looks like the negative ads are indeed working...

[AndyTiedye]

3. And We Thought This Time Would Be Different

[mvd]

4. If they are, it just infuriates me

Will the people just soak up anything? I HAVE seen new Obama ads here, though, which is a good thing.

[depakid]

5. Of course they work

That's why- all whinging about them aside, smart campaigns who play to win- rather than to make some sort of statement, use them to define their opponents.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

13. Problem is, I don't have the answers as to how Obama should respond

I'd like to know where the Democrats are. I'd like to know why the Democrats aren't supporting their nominee.

And Obama is fucked no matter what he does. Suppose he goes negative. He'd be defined as the "militant," "threatening" black man who is attacking a war hero. If he maintains the high road, people question whether or not the attacks carry some semblance of truth.

What should he do? Go negative and cast doubt on his character? We've seen how the media has spun everything he says and does. Or, should he maintain the high road and risk lending credibility to the smears?

[mvd]

15. I think he should go negative a little now

Just to get under McCain's skin even more and to let McCain know he won't have free reign on attack ads.

[backscatter712]

46. We should go negative a lot.

We damn well should be highlighting the less-than-stellar events in McCain's military career.

Hell, we should be highlighting the Forrestal fire and call him Wetstart. Even if it ain't true. As LBJ put it, "I don't care if it's true or not. I just want to hear the son-of-a-bitch deny it."

We should not be holding back. The repukes won't, I guarantee that.

[depakid]

18. How in the world people think that using ads to define McCain et al reflects poorly on "character"

is beyond me.

The opposite is true.

It shows the electorate- particularly in the rust belt, where the election's going to be won or lost- that he's not yet another effete liberal who's afraid to tell it like it is and mix it up and trade some blows with his opponent.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

20. I agree, but since the Repukes have been able to convince people for years

that they are the party of moral virtues, negative ads work for them because they can't be bad, right? For some reason, Democrats have been labeled as evil and immoral. Negative attacks seem to backfire on us.

[depakid]

27. When have so called "negative" ads backfired?

How often have the Democrats actually used them to forcefully highlight the Republicans extreme positions?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

44. MoveOn.org was condemned by the Congress for their Petraeus ad.

And many cowardly Dems, scared that they might be cast as anti-American signed on to the resolution condemning the group. Look at what happened to Wes Clark? John Kerry's botched joke about Bush and troops in Iraq? It's not just ads, it's any time Dems or liberals attempt to point out facts, the truth, or go negative. It doesn't work.

[Puzzler]

22. I regret to say this...

... but probably the only really effective way to shut the McCain campaign up to to get them to overplay their hand.

[WeDidIt]

2. Chuck Todd has dissed these tracking polls forever

Remember how off base they were in the primaries?

[perpetual]

45. The same Chuck Todd who predicted Bush's approval would go up to 50%

If Nancy Pelosi became the House Speaker?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ1Hh7zn7tg

[AllentownJake]

6. 1000 people

to determine the mood of the entire country :rofl:

They probably didn't call a person in every state.

[WeDidIt]

8. Not only that, look at the trends

It tightens up every week around the middle of the week.

[mvd]

11. Good point

:thumbsup:

[AllentownJake]

12. Obama supporters trend younger

and aren't home when called that time of the week :shrug:

[Freddie Stubbs]

14. What would the correct number of people to call be?

:shrug:

[AllentownJake]

17. Statistically

to be 95% sure +-3 would be 1067
to be 99% sure +-3 would be 1849

However I've never had much faith in statistics espicially with population sizes over 100,000,000

[IntravenousDemilo]

7. Blip. n/m

[mvd]

9. McCain has never passed Obama, and I don't..

expect him to tomorrow.

These numbers though make me wonder if some are just looking for reasons not to vote for Obama. Because those McCain attacks are lame.

[my3boyz]

16. They wanted an excuse not to vote for Obama and McCain is giving it to them.

That off shore drilling is a bunch of smoke and mirrors but the people believe it. They just said on MSNBC that the main reason for the shift in Florida appears to be because they overwhelmingly support off shore drilling. I know they heard that it would not change anything for 10 years but they are using that as a reason to switch to Obama. They said the people were thinking that at least McCain is trying to do something. Obama better come out with something soon and advertise the heck out of it.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. I thought Floridians were opposed to Offshore drilling?!??!

Also, Obama is winning FL. But you're right. Not only Obama but the Democrats need to hit back hard on this. This drilling nonsense is gaining traction. This election will mostly likely be about the economy, and allowing the Repukes to focus only on energy is to the detriment of the Democrats. The Pelosi Premium is an attractive slogan. The Dems win when they tie energy and oil to the downturn in the economy. This election belongs to the Democrats. If they mess this up the country and the world are doomed!

[quantass]

24. ...and if Democrats loose this then the entire party should be abolished for not

picking up the obvious ways to win this and not using it...if democrats lose this election America is finished.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

49. I agree with you. If we lose this one, I think I'm probably done with the politics.

I keep thinking the American people will catch a clue, but three strikes and you're out.

[my3boyz]

26. I thought so too. They were talking about a poll where

Floridians are overwhelmingly in favor of the drilling. I think they were referring to the new Quinnipiac poll but I'm not positive.

[Arrowhead2k1]

10. I seriously wouldn't stress too much about the day to day polls.

They've been fluctuating from a statistical dead heat to an Obama advantage and back again since the polling started. Just keep your eyes on the ball.

[npincus]

21. Swiftboating was effective in 2004

[quantass]

25. So was that "Green-Amber Alert" thingy -- as soon as i saw that i knew Kerry was finished

one consistency of Americans is that they "enjoy" getting fooled easily by the republicans simpyl because the media plays up a lot of their talking points at naseum that it becomes law for the viewer... you'd think this democratic nice-boy theme would be put to rest each election year when you look at the track record of democrats as presidents....clearly the public doesnt care if republicans cheat, lie, steal since they are presidents more often then not and cause more distasters as a result only to be elected back in again.

[trewsx11]

23. The VP picks and the DEBATES will decide this election

People still don't really know Obama and won't form a solid opinion on him until the debates. It's still August, people. Chill.

[quantass]

28. Yea the debates are important.

[Politics_Guy25]

29. That's true trewx11-that's why I am still optimstic but not pleased-n/t

[Egnever]

30. spot on

When these two finally get on stage next to each other this thing is over. It will be shocking and I think Obama is smart to hold off on presenting that stark contrast till the end so the shock factor isn't dulled with time.

[ladywnch]

31. gallup is playing games with the numbers.

there was a post here just yesterday that talks how they are maniupulating things between 'likely voters' and registered voters and the mix of the two... if the talk to more registered republicans then dems on any given day......all kinds of crap.

you know the old saying....there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

look around your town. how many mccain stick/signs/posters/etc do you see? no one is happy about mccain being the rep choice. now look how many obama material you see. If only 75% of those folks actually come out to vote in Nov. Obama still takes johnboy in a landslide. many reps will stay home rather than vote for johnboy.

[mvd]

33. I've just seen one McCain sign, and this is a..

conservative area of the county. Most of my neighborhood has Repukes.

[oviedodem]

32. We will have McCain by hook or by crook. It is what the media wants, big business

wants, big oil wants, etc.

Enjoy the ride and hope for a miracle. One day a dem will get in but not this year, deal with it already. The writing is on the wall.

[Teaser]

40. please leave this board

seriously, why are you here, then?

[bagimin]

34. Can't we have one freakin day to enjoy

yesterday's CNN 7 point lead for Obama?

[tekisui]

35. DON'T WORRY. That is Mclame's ceiling.

He won't breach 45%.

[book_worm]

36. People need to relax. These tracking polls are going to be up and down

[highplainsdem]

37. You don't understand why a Democrat might have trouble when we've had only 3 Dem presidential wins

in the last 40 years?

The first coming soon after Watergate, and the next two won by the best Democratic politician of the last 40 years, who managed to win despite all the GOP and media "Hunting of the President" (to borrow the title of Conason's very enlightening book) and his own mistakes, and left office with an incredibly high approval rating.

The only way it would have been VERY easy for us this year is if the Republicans and independents likely to vote Republican truly believed that McCain is McSame and he'll just repeat Bush's mistakes. It's clear from the vastly different approval ratings that they don't.

I think we still have a very good chance of defeating McCain if our party is united, but polls show the Democrats aren't united, and the only way I can see to really unite the party now is to have Clinton on the ticket. If she isn't, we could be in trouble.

It's unrealistic to expect Republicans and conservatives to vote for Obama instead of McCain when Obama's stand on the issues doesn't match theirs. It's unrealistic to expect Republicans and conservative independents to stay home because McCain is a lackluster candidate compared to Obama. How many less-than-inspiring Democratic nominees have WE voted for?

Rasmussen had an article last month on voter self-identification as conservative, moderate, or liberal, a link I've posted here again and again because this is so important to understand:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/public_perceptions_of_obama_and_mccain_shifting_rapidly

Where do the voters stand in all of this? Thirty-six percent (36%) say they are politically conservative, including 16% who say they are Very Conservative. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say they are politically moderate and 25% claim to be politically liberal. That last figure includes 8% who are Very Liberal.

Compared to four years ago, the number of conservatives is little changed but the number of liberal is up from 17%.

It's encouraging for us that the number of self-identified liberals is up from 17% four years ago to 25% of those polled this year. But that's a quarter of the population versus three-fourths who identify themselves as politically moderate or conservative. In a country this conservative, it's remarkable and praiseworthy that Obama is doing as well as he is.

But it's going to be a close race, and we'll need every possible advantage, which is why I'm still hoping Clinton will be on the ticket, since polls have shown she can add from a few points to more than ten points to Obama's lead over McCain. And we are going to need that edge.

[mvd]

38. It's not that I can't see a close race

It just baffles that such bad attack ads apparently are having a lot of impact.

[highplainsdem]

41. I don't think it's the attack ads. Obama got a bounce from the world tour, but that didn't last.

He also got a bounce after Clinton conceded and endorsed him in June, but that didn't last.

It's probably too early to see much impact from the negative ads -- just as the bounce from the world tour was delayed by a few days, leading some pundits who spoke too soon to say there would be NO bounce, even a temporary one.

Obama's poll numbers have been pretty close to McCain's for months now. Since Clinton conceded, Obama has always had some lead in these polls, but it's a modest lead, and he hasn't been leading by as much as generic Democrats versus generic Republicans in polling.

Again, I think having Clinton on the ticket will help him. There's simply too much poll evidence that Obama isn't getting as much Democratic support as McCain is getting from the Republicans. (Of course, McCain didn't have a rival who very nearly beat him in the primary race -- and if he had, he'd need that rival as his running mate to unite his party.)

[mvd]

47. I hope you are right

Personally, I think this would be a good time to name his VP pick - steal the headlines. Then after the convention, saturate the airwaves with the kind of ads that accentuate his positives yet also attack McCain. Obama is doing some of that now.

[Teaser]

39. RANDOM NOISE. RANDOM FUCKING NOISE. THAT'S ALL IT IS.

RANDOM NOISE. RANDOM FUCKING NOISE. RANDOM GODDAMN NOISE. STATISTICAL MOTHERFUCKING VARIABILITY. NO GODDAMN TREND.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Christ, people, what does it take to get you to stop reading significance into these things.

[JoshDem]

42. This Election Will Be a Nail Biter

Ras now has McCain up in Montana which Barack has been ahead in most polls.

Election will probably come down to Ohio, Michigan and Florida and whoever wins two out of three of these states will win the election.

[rockymountaindem]

48. Huh?

I don't recall any polls showing Obama leading in MT. As for your other assertion, Ohio and Florida aren't necessary. Obama only needs to win CO, NM and IA plus the Kerry states in order to win. I think that is easily within reach. Similarly, he could trade NV for either NM or IA and still win, and that's not counting Virginia.

[Median Democrat]

43. Expect McCain To Pass Obama A Couple Of Times, But . . .

The key question is how do we react? Do we turn on each other or do we fight back, work harder and give more?

Past elections have shown that Big Media can pretty much destroy the Democrats, but have we learned from past mistakes that it is not us, its them.