The Daily Widget – Thursday, July 31 – Obama 359, McCain 179 – Re: Poll on Swing States, Part 2

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


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1. TIDBITS – Re: Poll on Swing States, Part 2

Yesterday I asked the following poll question: “Of the following states (listed in alphabetical order), which one do you believe is the least likely to switch to Obama this year?”

The choices were: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

Your top answers were:
- North Carolina
- Indiana
- Florida
- Ohio

Of the 10 states listed in the poll question, John Kerry lost every single state in 2004, and Al Gore lost* every state but one in 2000 (with an asterisk* for Florida). Bill Clinton managed to win in all of the states listed above except for three of them: Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia.

So, how is Obama currently doing in the states listed in the poll question? Here are the latest poll results from these states, sorted by Obama’s poll lead:

Missouri – Obama +5.0
Montana – Obama +5.0
New Hampshire – Obama +3.0
Nevada – Obama +2.0
Colorado – Obama +1.5
Indiana – Obama +1.0
Florida – Obama +0.5
Virginia – Obama +0.5
Ohio – McCain +1.0
North Carolina – McCain +3.0


I’m surprised nobody chose Virginia as the least likely state for Obama. But we’re currently making great progress in Virginia, and that’s something that Bill Clinton was unable to do. Hopefully we will be able to do the same in all the other states on the list, including Ohio, Florida, Indiana and North Carolina.

ON EDIT: Both Ohio and Florida are now Obama +2 after the new Quinnipiac polls just released after this was posted. These will be included in tomorrow's post.


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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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3. NEW STATE POLLS

Mississippi joins the other Central-South states today as strong red. Not really a surprise there. Obama holds onto his lead in Michigan, and McCain holds onto his lead in Nebraska.


Michigan Obama 46, McCain 43 (Public Policy Polling, 7/27, +/- 3.3, 883 LV)
Mississippi Obama 42, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 7/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nebraska Obama 36, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 7/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[fight4my3sons]

1. Hey, Good morning!

Tommorrow's moving day so we are packing up. I was just waiting for your post. I'm unplugging so I can take the computer up to the other place to meet the cable guy today. Can't be without in either place, you know...

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. Don't box up the kids, lol!

You might forget which box they're in.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[tekisui]

3. Looking at that 6 column chart.....

If mccain takes ALL of his strong and weak and leans, he still has to take ALL of Obama's leans except Indiana!

With his floundering campaign of smear smear smear, without offering anything of worth, I don't see how mccain can swing CO, FL, MI, NV, NH, AND PA. I just don't see it.

Anyway, thanks as always. Morning!

[phrigndumass]

4. IOW, McCain's best potential scenario is a squeaker :)

I completely agree.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Off to work kick

Have a good day

:kick:

[grantcart]

6. Re 6 column chart Ohio needs to move one column left - I know you didnt have time yet to change it

just to let you know we study your work carefully :hi: :yourock: :thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

7. LMAO, nice smileys :)

:spray:

[grantcart]

8. lots of cross tab info - did you see this

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/gallups_crosstab_trove.php

[dtotire]

9. Much Too Optimistic

I hope they are correct.

[grantcart]

10. actually he isn't projecting anything he is using the latest polls

It may seem to be optomistic because the national polls are basically a joke



these polls are by the same polling companies that do the national polls but when they do it state by state they get a completely different response.

[grantcart]

11. Zogby is fooling the kids again

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6567940&mesg_id=6567940

note AZ Zogby doesn't even follow his own numbers - polling blue colored red.

[Alexander]

12. Obama will need about a 3 million vote cushion to counteract election stealing.

[grantcart]

13. gallup malpractice - poll has equal number of dems and reps

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3706560&mesg_id=3706560

[grantcart]

14. working late again?

Will you take a request --- I am sensing that Texas may be closer than people realize.

Is there anyway to look at the numbers and recalculate with a more realistic hispanic and AA turnout.

If McCain drops a couple and Obama gains a couple and theres a 4-5 percent from better minority turnout then Texas gets real close.

Obama winning in Texas would launch a massive landslide vote and McCain would have to live in Texas and spend every dollar he has there to make sure he wins.

(Last night Obama was in Texas for a fund raiser.)