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New poll confirms Senator Obama with massive lead in PA-Is PA safe for us?

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Politics_Guy25 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-30-08 09:00 PM
Original message
New poll confirms Senator Obama with massive lead in PA-Is PA safe for us?
I'm starting to think that PA is one of Senator Obama's stronger states this year (probably due to the extended primary run-up and campaign there). There's a new poll out from the republican-leaning firm Strategic vision that has Obama up +9, which coincidentally, is the same as the RCP average for all PA polls. I'm tempted to put PA squarely in O's column and not anywhere near toss-up. Anyone disagree?

Here is RCP's chart of recent polls by the way:
Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 06/09 - 07/27 -- 50.7 41.7 Obama +9.0
Strategic Vision (R) 07/25 - 07/27 1200 LV 49 40 Obama +9.0
Rasmussen 07/23 - 07/23 700 LV 51 45 Obama +6.0
Quinnipiac 06/09 - 06/16 1511 LV 52 40 Obama +12.0
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-30-08 09:00 PM
Response to Original message
1. Nothing is safe.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-30-08 09:47 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. Yeah, good
premise and go from there.
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LostinVA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-30-08 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
2. Penntucky
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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-30-08 09:08 PM
Response to Original message
3. PA is mostly a battle between the hicks and the urbanites. What makes it a bit interesting....
is the fact that the PGH urbanites are actually mostly hicks themselves, albeit in urbanite clothing. (I think, but am not certain, that PHI is big enough and close enough to NYC that it's just a standard urban-critter city).

So my thinking is that if Obama can carry PGH in normal-urban-area fashion, then PA is a lock. If he has trouble there, then the state is at risk.
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enough Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-30-08 09:10 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Don't forget the massive armies of suburbanites. Really, the don't fit either label.
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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-30-08 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. I didn't forget them.
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Historic NY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-30-08 09:34 PM
Response to Original message
6. Never rest on your laurels, never.
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-30-08 09:46 PM
Response to Original message
7. No, Rasmussen only has Obama up by 5 with leaners.
Strategic Vision isn't exactly a renowned pollster. They're a Republican outfit. Can't put it past them that they may be publishing this poll in the hopes that Dems will think the state is safe. Don't trust them.
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Motown_Johnny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-30-08 09:47 PM
Response to Original message
8. Not safe, but less of a battleground than OH or MI
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