Gallup Daily Tracking - Obama 47% McCain 41%

[chitty]

Obama down 1

McCain up 1

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109138/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-41.aspx

[whistle]

1. This is the real Gallup Poll, not the USA Today forgery correct

[chitty]

2. Daily Tracking Poll

[Zynx]

3. A lot of the daily movement actually has to do with rounding.

If one day Obama is at 47.75, he gets rounded up to 48. The next day he could be at 47.45 and get rounded down to 47%. That explains a lot of 1-2 point moves in spread.

[SteelPenguin]

4. Americans Don't like Math

God forbid we use decimals.

[JaneQPublic]

5. Gallup editor on MSNBC asked to explain differences in his polls

Tamron Hall pointed out that the Gallup/USA Today monthly poll had McCain ahead a few points, while the Gallup daily tracking poll had Obama ahead by 6 points. This Frank Newport guy from Gallup gave her a whole song and dance on why they were different: slightly different methodologies, reporting periods, etc.

Then when she asked simply which poll should the public believe--the one with Obama ahead or the one with McCain ahead, he said for him it was like a parent choosing which child he likes best.

She couldn't get a simple answer from him as to which candidate was really ahead at this moment in time.

What a load of hogwash!


(ed. for grammar error.)

[polichick]

6. I have zero regard for Gallup after this week - they're owned, just like the rest.

[RDANGELO]

7. At this point, the state polls are probably a better Gage.

They are naturally more accurate because you are polling a larger percentage of the voters in the jurisdiction. I think a lot of the national polls are using 2000 - 2004 turnout numbers instead of gaging it from the primaries. I'm pretty sure of one thing, the larger the turnout, the better it will be for Obama. He seems to be doing well in the swing states, even at the times when the national polls were tightening.