Give me your best theory as to why this thing is even close.

[BklynChick]

I'm thinking because it's the summer and people aren't really paying attention yet, many still don't know Obama, young people have cell phones and aren't polled, they are calling registered voters and lots of Obama supporters aren't registered yet.

So what's your best theory?

:banghead:

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Because that's how the GOP sets things up when they are gonna steal it. People aren't

as likely to storm the streets if they think it was close all along.

[indie_voter]

2. Poll manipulation

I don't trust the corporate poll takers. I don't think it's as close as the MSM is trying to convince us it is.

[hobbit709]

3. We have a WINNAH!

[Peacetrain]

27. Ah Yep!.. Sounds just about right NT

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. It's not

[K Gardner]

11. Exactly. It's not close.

[billyoc]

5. The pollsters are counting equal numbers of R's and D's.

They might have to make 1000 calls to find 10 people who will admit to being Republican.

That's not how it's going to be on election day. :hi:

[highplainsdem]

47. No, they aren't. This has been discussed here before. They're counting more Dems than Rethugs.

Sometimes way more, and sometimes only slightly more, with some widely varying polls like the two last polls from Newsweek. (The one showing Obama ahead by a wide margin was skewed too far toward the Democrats, and the one showing the race was very close was skewed too far toward Republicans but still counted more Democratic than Republican voters, according to the internal numbers.)

I posted about the Rasmussen article on "Why Polls Sometimes Show Different Results" when it was published a month ago

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/why_polls_sometimes_show_different_results

since it explains a lot of this.

[zanne]

6. I'm baffled. Some people are just partisan.

I think you can chalk up the rest to good old American-as-apple-pie racism. For the past few months, I've been spending about four hours a week phoning undecided voters with a brief survey. At least 90% of them are fed up with Iraq and think we need to get out now, most of them want good affordable healthcare for everyone and just about all of them are fed up with the economy and high fuel prices. But when I ask who they'll be supporting, more than half say "McCain". I honestly can't think of any other explanation.

[griffi94]

38. part of it is racism

another big part of it is fear of the unknown. most americans had no idea who obama was 18 months ago.
with all their concerns that you listed above they're a bit wary with regard to a newcomer.
they may disagree with a lot of mccains positions, but he's been the most visible repub over the last 8 years that has
questioned his party. that whole maverick thing is how many people view him. since he's been around forever i think these voters are just more comfortable with him even if they disagree with him on some issues. add to that the expected gains in congress by the democrats and the way the repubs have misused their lock on all 3 branches of government. i have some friends who are voting straight D down ticket, but voting mccain. it's their opinion that divided government is the way to go.

[Jack from Charlotte]

50. I agree with you and...........

Obama has to make people feel relaxed about choosing him.

Look at the names of .... ALL....the Presidents...

Bush, Clinton, Carter, Reagan........... totally white-bread. The most foreign sounding names of the whole 40 some presidents.... Roosevelt and Eisenhower and everyone knew IKe way before he ran for pres and Roosevelt was a proven non-foreigner because of Teddy.

Reagan showed he wasn't a wild eyed, right wing crazy between his nomination and election. (He concealed the incompetent boob part, very well)

Obama must do the same as Reagan did.... show he's not a wild eyed liberal, weird, foreigner person. Also, as you said... people just don't know him. He's got about 100 some days to get people comfortable with him.

And yes.... as A southerner, who has mostly only lived in the South.... there is huge racism even among those who would vote for almost any white Dem.

[griffi94]

51. i think this could be an area

where obamas early press hurts him a little bit. we're talking about voters who didn't know anything about him and some of the first national press he got was the whole "he's a cult leader". it's funny i never really thought about how his name sounds when compared to ex presidents until you pointed it out. again i think a large section of voters just have a hard time with anything new.
i wouldn't exactly call that straight on racism altho that will certainly be factor.
jmho but a lot of voters want a comfort food candidate.

[zanne]

54. "Comfort food" that they've been eating for seven and a half years?

I don't think so.

[zanne]

53. That's what he's been doing since the 2004 Democratic convention.

I think it's a little too cute to say that Obama isn't showing -people who he is. More than any candidate that I can remember in my 56 years, he's been trying to do that all along.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

79. If people are racist, there is NOTHING Obama can do to make people

feel relaxed and comfortable...

[zanne]

52. I hear alot of excuses for racism.

They're always dressed up nicely to resemble an "Independent"frame of mind. As far as the "unknown" is concerned, nobody but Texans knew who the hell George W. Bush was.

[Raineyb]

60. So do I.

It never ceases to amaze me how black people have to make white people "feel comfortable" with them as though black people haven't been a part of this country since its inception.

White people who think black people are as foreign as the person who came from another country don't know much about black people because they haven't bothered to find out how any black people think. Black people don't have that luxury.

Regards

[AspenRose]

62. Well said.

.

[ProSense]

7. Here:

The media sucks.

[ProSense]

15. Think about how many people

get everything they know about the candidates from the MSM. In every waiting room from the doctor's office to the auto repair shop, the airport to the train station, people get a constant dose of CNN and Fox Noise.

[patrice]

8. Eros + Thanatos = Biological Energy.

That's an oversimplification of basic Psychology. You can start to get a frame on the idea with Freud, but the principles are more or less relevant from other perspectives too.

[dbmk]

9. Habit

People have put themselves in boxes.

[JaneQPublic]

10. There is a segment of the public who will never vote for an African American

Speaking as a white person who has heard racist remarks from white friends, family members, and coworkers even recently, I know a portion of today's society is simply too ignorant, bigoted, and narrow-minded to believe a black person could or should serve as president.

I do, however, believe Obama can win the election, but it just won't be by as big a margin he deserves, considering how severely the Republicans have screwed things up.

[Labors of Hercules]

19. And there is a section of the public who will always vote for the older guy.

yep.

[Labors of Hercules]

21. and another section who will never vote for a Democrat...

no matter how pathetic the Republican candidate is.

[zanne]

57. I completely agree.

Sometimes admitting that America is still in the throes of racism makes us feel uncomfortable, but it's true.

[SmileyRose]

12. Low information voters and hate radio

Overcoming 20 years of hate radio isn't going to be easy. Almost every single day I meet someone who wants pretty much everything the Democrats stand for, but just can't get past Barack Obama's "foreign sounding" name and the message that he hates white people and America in general. Add to that voters who've been weened on "Democrats hate the troops, hate the unborn and love gays and child molesters" via hate radio.

Voters aren't nuanced. "Mission Accomplished" and "spread freedom" worked.

[Avalux]

13. It's not close. We're being lied constantly; polls are not accurate.

If there's a perception that the race is close right up to the election, it'll be easier for them to justify a McCain 'win'. Think they won't try to steal it again? This country is run by corporations and they will do whatever's necessary to maintain the status quo.

[uponit7771]

23. Right, on a state by state basis it's not close at all. Don't understand sampling reasoning of Ras &

...Gallup

[Avalux]

56. It's a moot point anyway. Popular vote does not decide the presidential election.

These polls are done and publicized for manipulative reasons.

[dkf]

14. Right wing talk radio permeates our airwaves.

And the amount of wrong information they purvey is simply amazing.

[napi21]

16. Bill Press had that as one of his questions on his show the AM.

According to his callers, there is a combination of reasons, depending on where you live. Some people wouldn't vote for a Dem. no matter who it was. Some would never vote for a black man. Some still believe a military man would be the best leader. Some think Barack is too young. And I'M SURE the situation wih cell phones plays a part too.

I know we are only 3 months away from voting, but so far, things appear to look better for Barak and worse for McNuts every day! I think this overseas trip will prove to help Barack a lot, and McNuts puts his foot in his mouth at lease once a day EVERY DAY!

[Eric J in MN]

17. Because 40% of Americans would only vote pro-life and 40% would only vote pro-choice...

...in a presidential candidate.

I would support a Constitutional amendment to get the president out of the business of nominating judges. But until my idea comes to pass, most people are voting for the head of the executive branch based on the impact on the judicial branch.

[truebrit71]

18. First off, it isn't close at all, but it is being shown that way so that the M$M presstitutes....

...have something to yap about for the next four months...

The obvious upside for the corporate media is that by artificially "keeping it close" the rethuglicans could still theoretically manufacture a third straight "win" in the GE for the Presidential slot..

One hopes that Obama wins in such a massive landslide that the Press-whores, fearing for the livelihoods, get on board the Obama-Express after the election and start behaving more professionally....Yeah I know, fat chance, but I can hope can't I?

[scheming daemons]

20. 25% of white America will never vote for a man of color, no matter what

Some of that 25% are Democrats.... not the majority of them... but some of them.

[mopinko]

34. unfortunately most of those are older. and they vote.

here's hoping their aches and pains are acting up on election day.

[zanne]

58. I haven't found that most of them are older.

I have found, however, that most of them are white males.

[mopinko]

67. just my micro-observation

still feeling a little frustrated over my canvassing in iowa last weekend. had one guy who flat out told me it was because he was black, and had a lot of others that either said they were undecided, although they didn't seem to be thinking about it, or spouted the o'lielly lines for me. they were all late 50's, or 60's.
several of them, i just wanted to hug them and tell them not to be so frightened. you could just see it in their faces.

[zanne]

73. You're a better person than I, mopinko.

I don't feel like hugging them.

[mopinko]

78. hey, i would do almost anything to get them to vote for barack.

almost.

[uponit7771]

22. On a state by state level it's not close at all, these polls are a little confusing IMHO

[debbierlus]

24. Poll Manipulation: It isn't close. After two stolen elections, you should know that by now

It is FAR from close.

And, they are going to try and STEAL another election. However, I think that if they tried to steal this one, there would be huge protests like we haven't seen in the past two election cycles. I think people would finally catch on.

We need to be bringing the issue of election fraud out into the open and post every article here on DU, also submit action alerts through DU activism corps.

[BlooInBloo]

25. Because of The Fact That Dare Not Be Named.

[highplainsdem]

26. I don't understand why people are at all surprised that it IS close. Basic political alignments

should tell you that much of the country is conservative enough that no matter how attractive the Democratic candidate seems to us, and how lackluster the GOP candidate, those voters won't be swayed.

We've often mentioned here that there are more registered (or self-identified) Democrats than Republicans.

But that group includes the more conservative Dems who have voted for the GOP candidate at times.

I posted about this Rasmussen article early last month:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/public_perceptions_of_obama_and_mccain_shifting_rapidly

Where do the voters stand in all of this? Thirty-six percent (36%) say they are politically conservative, including 16% who say they are Very Conservative. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say they are politically moderate and 25% claim to be politically liberal. That last figure includes 8% who are Very Liberal.

Compared to four years ago, the number of conservatives is little changed but the number of liberal is up from 17%.

With 3/4 of voters identifying themselves as moderate or conservative, it's wonderful that Obama is doing as well as he is.

He's helped by the fact that even conservatives are disgusted with Bush. But that doesn't necessarily carry over 100% to McCain. We can call him McSame all we want, but there have been polls showing a significant percentage of voters don't believe a McCain presidency will be Bush's third term. His approval rating, favorability, has been about double that of Bush.

If you pay attention only to this little echo chamber here at DU, where some people are quick to attack any post that isn't entirely good news for Obama, or a rave about Obama, you simply won't have a very good idea how the wider electorate views him, or McCain.

[windbreeze]

28. because the polls are manipulated

to come out the way someone wants them too, and perhaps we are being set up for it to be stolen again...after all, IF there isn't that much difference in the polling, then anything is possible when the election happens...and can't be questioned, because after all...the polls kept saying they were sooooo close...wb

[predfan]

29. Keep in mind the Rev. Wright ads haven't hit yet, and you can be assured they will.

Add in the fact that the Republicans have NO qualms about stealing an election, and I'll guarantee you this election will be a squeaker.

In 2004 I left work on election day with Kerry the winner.........remember what happened?

[saltpoint]

30. I don't think it's that close.

Every time McCain opens his mouth or stands in front of a snot-green backdrop, our chances go up another notch.

I'm not sure why the GOP is even having a convention in Minneapolis. Obama is going to take that state by 14 points unless Pawlenty is on the ticket, in which case Obama wins ty 17 points.

Maybe a year ago "purple" Minnesota looked like the place to hold a convention but Obama is too popular there for it to do any good. It's on Labor Day weekend as well, so people who aren't out swimming and boating and barbequing will be tuned in to the Jerry Lewis Telethon instead of John McCain.

If Obama holds the states Kerry/Edwards won in 2004 and asks Richardson to be his veep, we win New Mexico, Colorado, and maybe Nevada too, and with them, the electoral college majority. Obama might well win those states with or without Bill Richardson.

I don't think it's that close.

[CK_John]

31. Everything has a season, the political season begins after the conventions and county fairs. n/t

[RandomKoolzip]

32. There are a lot of conservatives in America.

:shrug:

[highplainsdem]

35. Self-delete. Dupe.

[highplainsdem]

36. Exactly. See my reply upthread, the link to the Rasmussen article on the percentages

of self-identified conservatives and moderates versus liberals.

[zbdent]

33. Complete lack of media coverage of McCain's failings, CBS polishing his turds,

and the media scrutiny equivalent to that of an electron microscope on Obama ...

and still Obama's ahead ...

[dsomuah]

37. It's not close

46%-41% is not close. John Kerry never had such a big lead. Obama's potential electoral count is approaching 300 and we haven't even had the convention yet. This is not close. Worse, much of McCain's support is soft and shows no signs of hardening. He has a lot of leaners and not a lot of solid supporters. These numbers are looking pretty bad for McCain. They may not admit it publicly, but privately the repubs know things aren't looking good.

Of course, it's a long way to the election. McCain may yet be able to shake things up. But right now: Doesn't look good for him. One of my repub friends even said that he would be suprised if Obama doesn't win.

[ProSense]

40. You're right, but

without the media's aid, McCain's numbers would be a lot lower.

[YvonneCa]

64. VERY true. n/t

[Sensitivity]

39. Damage to NATIONAL SECURITY experience perception built up during primary

[madville]

41. It's gonna get closer

Watch the McCain campaign as they make oil and the price of gas their centerpiece issue. As long as prices stay high we are going to hear over and over on a daily basis that the Democrats won't let the oil companies drill for more oil, supply and demand, increase supply price goes down, the Democrats are owned by the wacko enviromentalists, Barack Obama, Al Gore, and the other libruls want the price of gas to be high, Obama said that the price of gas being high isn't really a bad thing, etc, etc, etc, etc.

And the majority of people who don't really follow politics like we here do are gonna be eating it up with a spoon, and hearing it repeated all the time will ingrain it in their minds when they go to vote after spending $120 fill up their guzzler.

[TwilightGardener]

42. I think it's for a number of factors mentioned above, plus the fact that

McCain is the "safe" old white GOP default candidate for those who barely pay attention to politics and don't really want to learn more about the candidates and their positions--much as Hillary was the safe brand name during the primary for low-info and elderly voters. McGolfcart's been around, people know him and his story by now, people still think he's "mavericky". As awful a campaigner as McCain is, most people don't think he'll be as bad as Chimpy, and many Indies still like him.

[superxero044]

43. Because

McCain is a maverick.

[Doctor_J]

44. Big Media has abandoned even the pretense of objectivity

They're nothing more than McSame campaign organs.

[MrsT]

45. Why did Carter only beat Ford by 2% after the Nixon and Agnew scandals?

Because sometimes the same old shit from a new face is all Americans need.

[Yavin4]

46. Racism

Yes, it's an ugly word, and it gets thrown around a lot. However, that's the only factor keeping this election close. The only other factor was Obama's weakness on foreign policy, and this trip absolutely killed that argument. Obama has done more in this one trip than Bush has done in 8 years.

It's clear that Obama is the better choice. It's clear by far. Heck, even the Germans see the difference.

There are still vast pockets of White people in this country who are uncomfortable with African Americans in leadership posiitons, and this is a very different level of racism. There are Whites that can accept African Americans as co-workers, friends, etc., but leadership? That's a whole other question.

That's why this race is close.

[Lorien]

48. The mainstream media and big corporations love the GOP. n/t

[madville]

49. Things haven't even gotten ugly yet

We still have over 3 months. I'm really curious to see what low, underhanded crap gets put out that closes the gap. You know there is going to be something and it is going to knock the wind out of Obama's sails, the media is going to run with it 24/7, but I just hope he can recover before the election when it happens.

[DevonRex]

55. My republican family members simply will not vote dem, no matter

what. They choose to believe republican spin. They always think the worst about democrats. They hate taxes. They hate welfare and lots of other government programs. But they gladly take Social Security and Medicare.

Between that kind of base and flawed polling, it's easy to see why it is relatively close.

[WinkyDink]

59. Ignorance, fear, and greed. Next question?

[Vinca]

61. Two words: stupid people. nt

[SOS]

63. The liberal media...

Viacom - CBS - Republican
GE - NBC - Republican
Disney - ABC - Republican - radio network 100% right-wing
Time Warner - CNN - Republican
The New York Times - favors McCain
Fox
Clear Channel - 1,240 right-wing radio stations

And for the fact-based community:
Keith Olbermann

[Irishonly]

65. The media spin

McCain's gaffes are ingnored as well as his temper, racism..... There probably is racism in some areas.

[anonymous171]

66. MEDIA!

[mvd]

68. The corporate, conservative media

and the fact people still think McCain is somehow different than Bush. It's amazing the fear of Democrats some people have gotten since Reagan was President.

[Guava Jelly]

69. Because enough people are stupid

I have several sisters and brother in laws who will never vote Dem no mater what.
They have a carefully bred and nurtured hatred of anything not republican..It's because they are stupid.

[mvd]

70. Many Republicans will complain about the state of..

the country, then vote for a variation on the same thing. It's mind boggling.

[Guava Jelly]

71. It is..

I have been trying my damnedest to re-educate them but alas they are to far gone. :eyes:

[President Decider]

72. Why is it being called "CLOSE" you ask?

... because the media has been salivating over the revenue they can make off of the ratings of this election year for over 2 years now. They want nothing more than to make this appear it's a horserace when in fact its not.


... not even close.

[Terran]

74. Rrrrrracism!

Not to make light of it, but that's my theory. I'm sure there are other reasons but that's the biggie.

[rucky]

75. People suck.

[Zynx]

76. Even Hoover got 40% of the vote and 41% of the two party vote.

[Cha]

77. The mainstreammediawhores.

Without them there would have been no bush, War On Iraq, Fucking Surge, Fucking Mcsurge.

[KansDem]

80. How do we know these polls aren't "edited?"

I mean, if CBS will edit an interview with McCain in order to not have him sound stupid, then how do we know these polls are accurate?

I think we are constantly being edited by the corporations via Madison Avenue...

[patriceclaire.com]

81. They are not factoring in the 2 other canidates

Yes it is a head to head match up when it comes to McCain and Obama only- Obama up 6 points, but when it comes down to adding Barr and Nader-they actually eat away at McCain's number where Obama is 48, McCain is 39 and Barr is 2 and Nader is 5%. There is still 6% undecided out there that Obama and McCain is trying to win over from now until the election. So Obama will always have his solid base of 47-48 and he is also looking to upset the numbers by registering enough new voters to make the lead even larger because if he does not eat away at that undecided margin, it would not even matter. So expect a lot of just the two head to head major candidates, because the media/ pundits won't do the four way often...and this is why democratic numbers are up in general all over. I would not worry- it is a no brainer Obama win-unless they take him down physically-I pray they won't and we as people are bigger than that. McCain has nothing to offer but mix-up and newly made up facts about Iraq. And lately he is now taking credit for the "surge" translation, "extra troops." -Saying that it was his idea-that the military briefed him only in 2006 before they notified President Bush. Ha Ha. And it is "working, my friends, working." we would have lost" ....cricket....cricket....cricket.

McCain keeps lying -he is now a US senator who lies in order to win a political Campaign and desperate since his numbers are not moving one bit.

[patriceclaire.com]

82. They are not factoring in the 2 other canidates

Yes it is a head to head match up when it comes to McCain and Obama only- Obama up 6 points, but when it comes down to adding Barr and Nader-they actually eat away at McCain's number where Obama is 48, McCain is 39 and Barr is 2 and Nader is 5%. There is still 6% undecided out there that Obama and McCain is trying to win over from now until the election. So Obama will always have his solid base of 47-48 and he is also looking to upset the numbers by registering enough new voters to make the lead even larger because if he does not eat away at that undecided margin, it would not even matter. So expect a lot of just the two head to head major candidates, because the media/ pundits won't do the four way often...and this is why democratic numbers are up in general all over. I would not worry- it is a no brainer Obama win-unless they take him down physically-I pray they won't and we as people are bigger than that. McCain has nothing to offer but mix-up and newly made up facts about Iraq. And lately he is now taking credit for the "surge" translation, "extra troops." -Saying that it was his idea-that the military briefed him only in 2006 before they notified President Bush. Ha Ha. And it is "working, my friends, working." we would have lost" ....cricket....cricket....cricket.

McCain keeps lying -he is now a US senator who lies in order to win a political Campaign and desperate since his numbers are not moving one bit.

[TexasObserver]

83. White people over 50 years old are the reason it's close.

Although I don't think it's as close as some suggest. I think Obama will win the electoral college huge, and will win the population by at least 5%.

But many older white people really have a problem with a black man who younger than them, who is foreign to them and the world they have lived in.

[KurtNYC]

84. In one word: Racism

In three words: pure frickin' racism.

[TheDonkey]

85. America is very divided and there will be yokels who will ALWAYS be inclined to vote rethug

no matter how ridiculous it seems. Case Study: 2004.