The Daily Widget – Thursday, July 24 – Obama 344, McCain 194 – Expanding the Base

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Thu Jul-24-08 06:56 AM
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The Daily Widget – Thursday, July 24 – Obama 344, McCain 194 – Expanding the Base

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map, Links and Sources

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1. TIDBITS – Expanding the Base

Grantcart and I created the Wigand Electoral Average (WEA) to track each candidate’s base (basis, or center of gravity) on the electoral map, and to take the swing states mostly out of the hands of the pollsters and put them into the hands of the people. We studied historical electoral maps and gauged each candidate’s initial standings in the current election to arrive at an even base for each side, and a balanced set of swing states.

Our original base study found a blue base with 200 electoral votes, a red base with 199 electoral votes, and a set of 12 swing states with 139 electoral votes (69 blue, 70 red). The total initial base for each side was 269 to 269. This is an all-around balanced base and swing for both sides.

We are proud to report that Barack Obama’s base has grown by 15% since the primaries ended. Eighty-one electoral votes from seven red states, both base and swing, have managed to find themselves in Obama’s pocket, with zero electoral votes going the other way (see charts below).

Section 5 below reviews the progress of the Wigand Electoral Average and the group of swing states every day. FIGURE 5a shows how the group of swing states are trading on Intrade as a whole. FIGURE 5b compares the WEA Index to the national daily tracking polls and the daily trading figures.

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2. WIDGETS

^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.

^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

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3. NEW STATE POLLS

New polls in Florida and Virginia flip them back to blue today, while Minnesota and New Jersey remain strong for Obama. Our candidate bats a thousand and goes 4 for 4 today.

Florida

Obama 49, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 7/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 52, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 7/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New Jersey

Obama 42, McCain 28, Undecided 23 (Monmouth/Gannett, 7/21, +/- 3.3, 874 RV)
Virginia

Obama 46, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 7/20, +/- 2.7, 1327 LV)

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES

^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING

^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP, LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

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