Economists’ study shows Obama in driver’s seat

[Emillereid]

Economists’ study shows Obama in driver’s seat
1:17:05 PM July 23rd, 2008
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A study from an economics analysis company shows that Sen. Barack Obama will win the presidency over Sen. John McCain if current economics persist through to November.

Macroeconomic Advisers LLC says Obama should win 54.8% of the vote to McCain’s 45.2% based on a model that looks at four political factors and three economic criteria. On the political side, the study looks at candidate of the incumbent party, approval rating of the incumbent, party and incumbent party’s term in office. For economics, the study looks at real income growth, unemployment rate and change in energy prices.

Macroeconomic’s president, Chris Varvares says in a press release: “The weak current state of the economy and the sharp rise in energy prices pose a significant headwind to the McCain campaign, if voters weigh these factors similarly to how they have in the past.”

That last phrase may prove to be a critical, though, as several surveys show that voters side with McCain on his call for additional offshore oil drilling while Obama prefers pursuing other forms of energy. Varvares also says the survey doesn’t take into account the political attractiveness of the candidates themselves, or other noneconomic factors.
Yet Macroeconomic says it has predicted the winner 12 of 14 times.
Other economic models have produced similar findings, and that was the subject of a recent MarketWatch column by Washington Bureau Chief Rex Nutting. The link is here: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/obama-shoo-forecasting-models-say/story.aspx?guid=%7B1662DD33%2DEA15%2D4228%2DA2B5%2D222A7A95E1B9%7D&dist=msr_1

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2008/07/23/economists-study-shows-obama-in-drivers-seat/

[opihimoimoi]

1. Its the Economy McStupid...not the War....

[Emillereid]

2. I'd like to think Obama is a safe bet this November as I do not see anything

on the economic horizon to change this economy around in the near future. It will be ANOTHER HUGE MESS for an Obama administration to deal with and probably eventually get blamed for. The repukes should never be allowed anywhere near the White House ever again!