Latest Rasmussen And Gallup Poll

[Hope And Change]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108949/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Has-ThreePoint-Edge.aspx

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

[patrice]

1. too close for my comfort!!! nt

[polichick]

2. Don't both these polls use old voter roles for their calling pools??

Maybe that's why they don't seem to reflect what's happening on the ground.

Makes me wonder whether state polls use newer lists of voters.

[BrklynLiberal]

3. I am appalled that it is even that close. How could that many people who are against

Bush and his policies feel that it is ok to vote for McSame???

Maybe the media is correct, and there are a lot of idiots out there in the voting public.

[wpelb]

5. Is Obama that different?

If the RW media is to be believed (a big if for many here, of course), Sen. Obama seems to be moving closer to the positions of Pres. Bush. By election day, he might even be to the right of both Bush and Sen. McCain!

:D

[mrreowwr_kittty]

10. You seem concerned. nt

[Faygo Kid]

6. It's a phenomenon. The scare tactics have been effective.

Impossible to underestimate the intelligence of the American electorate.

They have voted against their best interests before; no reason to think it won't happen again.

Especially with a black Mooslim on the ticket.

[Hippo_Tron]

24. McGramps is still generally topping out around 42%

Tracking polls need to be taken with a bucket of salt because they are notoriously unreliable. The non-tracking polls generally have McCain no higher than 42%. Even though Bush's approval is in the low 30's and high 20's, you still have about 40-45% of the country that just will never vote for a Democrat. The fact that McCain can't get any higher than 42% right now is a very very re-assuring thing, though.

Obama is new on the scene, and IMO he will gain much of that undecided vote after he gives the speech of his life at the convention. The question is whether or not he will maintain that after the barrage of attacks during the fall campaign.

[mucifer]

4. unfreakingbelievable!

how can mccain's numbers be so high?

I hate the msm.

[cbc5g]

7. There's a lot of racial hatred being stoked especially in the southern states

Look at Obama's negatives ... its 47% with like 30% highly unfavorable in Virginia. Racism still exists and we have to confront it.


One thing we can be happy about is that usually voting AGAINST someone instead of FOR someone usually results in a loss. So that high percentage that is voting AGAINST Obama instead of FOR McCain will likely result in a loss for McCain. McCain isn't giving them anything to feel good about to vote favorably for him.

[Ian David]

12. I'm still surprised that some people think John McCain can pass for White.

What?

WHAT??

What did I say???

[Kokonoe]

8. I don't trust any polls.

Its just another media tool.

[World Citizen]

9. Racism is NOT dead

it's alive and thriving, and its not just in the south. It's dangerous to underestimate this factor.

[Ian David]

11. We need at LEAST an 11% lead to make up for election fraud and voter suppression. n/t

[Hippo_Tron]

26. Not really, we control most of the state governments now

Florida is the only potentially crucial state where the Republicans are in charge, and honestly I don't see this coming down to Florida.

[Ian David]

33. Isn't Blackwell still in charge of Ohio? n/t

[CitizenLeft]

39. NO... thank God.

We have a Dem gov now... Strickland. No more Blackwell. If McCain wins Ohio, it will be fair and square. God forbid.

[Ichingcarpenter]

13. You need to look at their poll samples and if they are consistent

With samples they have done in the past. The last poll done by Newsweek
was awful.

This takes a little research.

[kentuck]

14. These polls are for psychological consumption...

If the numbers are close, will more or less Republicans come out to vote for McCain? Likewise, if the numbers are perceived to be this close, will more or less Democrats get out to vote? That is the psychological impact of these polls at this time. Not real meaningful.

[jobycom]

15. Relax.

First, the pollsters are using the same old formulas, and those aren't picking up the changes that are happening.

Second, it's very early. People aren't sure who they are voting for yet. You still have Democrats mad at Obama for FISA or for the primary, you still have Republicans who want change but can't bring themselves to admit they'll vote for a Democrat. The biggest flaw with polls this far out if that they don't measure the uncertainty. They don't measure how many people say "I won't answer that yet." Right now, there are a lot more Democrats who are saying "I don't want to answer" than Republicans. They'll vote Obama when it's for real.

Third, people want change. Everyone. Republicans and some independents are clinging to the belief that Bush screwed everything up, but McCain will change that. The longer the campaign goes on, the more these people will see McCain as more of Bush.

But, don't relax too much. People don't change overnight. People who have voted Republican for a decade now aren't going to just say "Well, I was wrong. I'll vote Democrat from now on," even if they are pissed at Bush. There's a lot of persuading to do.

And don't mistake enthusiasm for conviction. Obama has fired-up supporters who are filling stadiums and emptying their bank accounts to support him. No matter how fired up they are, though, each one of those people equals exactly as many votes as each one of the people sitting quietly at home planning to vote for McCain.

Still, while these polls are probably pretty accurate as to what people are thinking now, they don't reflect what people will be thinking when the voting is for real. People want something new, and only one candidate can offer that.

[CTyankee]

19. And the state by state polls are more important, anyway.

We should remember that we elect presidents by the Electoral College, not the popular vote. What we are looking at there is a clear win for Obama.

[jobycom]

23. True, but they are also the least accurate.

State polls are less reliable and less frequent, so they are often more out of date.

It all gets more accurate closer to the election.

[CTyankee]

29. Why do you say that?

The polls I read about are updated almost daily. Also, if you are talking about outdated demographic data being used as weights, it is true that that happened, sadly, in Kerry's polling in FL, underestimating the fundy vote. But my guess is that the Dems have learned from that and are careful about their weighting process.

But maybe you have something in mind that I hadn't considered...

[Awsi Dooger]

31. State polls are blatantly more inaccurate

I don't know why posters are so reluctant to accept that. Study it for a dozen years and it will be crystal.

The models vary drastically from one company to the next within the same state. Some states like Alaska are notoriously difficult to poll. Many states demonstrate distinct tendency for polling to err in one specific direction, like Georgia overly friendly to Democrats and New Jersey too friendly to Republicans.

As indicated above, state polls are fewer and generally catch a snapshot of weeks ago, not necessarily now. It gets better closer to election day when state polling is relentless in the swing states. At this point it's frankly idiotic to rely on state polls.

Let's put it this way; the oddsmaking sites offer high limits on the national result but dramatically less of a limit on state to state betting. The vast majority of them don't allow statewide wagering until late in the cycle. That is directly related to the caliber and frequency of polling. They aren't confident in how the states stand because the polls are not reliable or frequent enough.

And yet DU and other sites are giddy to proclaim state polls more accurate, what we need to be focusing on. The frequent threads dealing with estimated percentages always deal primarily with state polls, not national polls or situational angles. It's so absurd it's like a daily parody but that's what you get when people who never gamble or deal with applied probability try to pretend they know what they're doing, once every 2 or 4 years.

[CTyankee]

34. But national polls use numbers from states that have a lot of voters

for one party that seem like it is a "landslide" andyet it is just their own state party. The electoral vote reamains the same, not matter how big the landslide. It is, of course, the exact opposite in the Dem states where if there is a landslide only the majority party wins, even if it doesn't match the maginitude of the other state.

So what if it is a snapshop in time? People should know that that happens. I never said that it was definitive, only that it was a different way of looking at the national polls. That is what I was basing my argumentive on.

[Sensitivity]

16. The Bradley Effect suggest that Obama will have SHOCKING loss if nums remain the same

In state after state where Obama should win we will see him loose as in the last set of primaries with Hillary.

It has to do with the uncontrolable element of deep-seated prejudice that will grab onto any excuse to hold back voting for him, combined with the subtle proping-up that we must expect McCain to receive from the MSM given the ownership of those institutions.

Dems who are being arrogant about prospects are simply deceiving themselves.

[flamingdem]

17. Cell phones are excluded from polling phone number lists

Many young people only have cell phones.

[Sensitivity]

27. Cell phones are NEVER incuded in these polls -- JUST AS IN THE PRIMARIES. The sample is WEIGHTED to

account for this deficiency. Even then, Obama lost when the polls said he might win in several primairies.

I happen to be quite knowlegeable about this.

[Median Democrat]

18. Poll Reflects That Obama Gets Destroyed In Alabama, But ,..

Whether McCain wins Alabama by 1 point or 20 points, the result is the same, 9 electoral votes.

Here is a far better website to review, which incorporates gallup and rasmussen, but more importantly examines the electoral votes:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

The fact of the matter is that there are some states that are solidly red such as Kentucky and Alabama. These states will skew heavily in favor of the GOP, perhaps by 20 points. This McCain lead may grow, because it is a waste of money to campaign in these states because they are solidly red. So, the popular vote will be close in this election due to these dynamics. Yet, we do not elect Presidents based on the popular vote. Its winner take all. So, while the national polls are interesting, the real key is what states are in play. And, with Obama, a lot more states in the South are actually in play even more so then when John Edwards was on Kerry's ticket.

[Sensitivity]

20. I agree re focus on states. But BE also applies at the state level and it is not being tracked.

In some states where Obama is 5 points ahead in the state poll he may actually be 5 points behind in terms of the real intent of the voter. The national poll tells us that there is a HUGE decrepancy between party support and candidate support -- one that works just the opposite for McCain. It is a warning that should be heeded.

[Median Democrat]

21. So, National Polls Are More Important Than State By State?

I am not sure how cell phones are relevant to the point I raise regarding the electoral vote. I may have missed your point, or you mine.

Obama 255, McCain 163, Toss Ups 120 | No Toss Ups: Obama 322, McCain 216
Solid Obama Leaning Obama Solid McCain Leaning McCain Toss Up (Click Header to Sort)
State Obama (D) McCain (R) RCP Average RCP Status 2004 2000
Virginia (13) 47.7 46.7 Obama +1.0 Toss Up Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1
Nevada (5) 45.0 43.3 Obama +1.7 Toss Up Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5
New Hampshire (4) 44.0 43.3 Obama +0.7 Toss Up Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3
New Mexico (5) -- -- -- Toss Up Bush +0.7 Gore +0.1
Indiana (11) 47.0 46.5 Obama +0.5 Toss Up Bush +20.7 Bush +15.7
Missouri (11) 45.0 47.5 McCain +2.5 Toss Up Bush +7.2 Bush +3.3
Colorado (9) 46.3 42.7 Obama +3.6 Toss Up Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4
Florida (27) 43.8 46.0 McCain +2.2 Toss Up Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1
North Carolina (15) 43.0 47.0 McCain +4.0 Toss Up Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8
Ohio (20) 47.3 42.8 Obama +4.5 Toss Up Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5
Iowa (7) 49.7 42.3 Obama +7.4 Leaning Bush +0.7 Gore +0.3
Montana (3) 42.0 45.7 McCain +3.7 Leaning Bush +20.5 Bush +25.0
Oregon (7) 47.7 41.0 Obama +6.7 Leaning Kerry +4.2 Gore +0.5
Georgia (15) 43.3 50.0 McCain +6.7 Leaning Bush +16.6 Bush +11.7
Pennsylvania (21) 48.0 40.3 Obama +7.7 Leaning Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2
Michigan (17) 48.7 41.0 Obama +7.7 Leaning Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2
Wisconsin (10) 51.5 40.3 Obama +11.2 Leaning Kerry +0.4 Gore +0.2
Minnesota (10) 51.5 39.5 Obama +12.0 Leaning Kerry +3.5 Gore +2.4
Texas (34) 38.0 48.8 McCain +10.8 Leaning Bush +22.9 Bush +21.3
New Jersey (15) 47.0 38.5 Obama +8.5 Leaning Kerry +6.7 Gore +15.8
Washington (11) 48.8 39.2 Obama +9.6 Leaning Kerry +8.2 Gore +5.5
Mississippi (6) 41.3 52.7 McCain +11.4 Leaning Bush +19.6 Bush +16.9
Louisiana (9) 37.3 54.0 McCain +16.7 Leaning Bush +14.5 Bush +7.7
Arkansas (6) 33.0 49.3 McCain +16.3 Solid Bush +9.7 Bush +5.4
California (55) 53.2 35.6 Obama +17.6 Solid Kerry +9.9 Gore +11.8
New York (31) 53.6 34.2 Obama +19.4 Solid Kerry +18.3 Gore +25.0
Connecticut (7) 55.0 35.0 Obama +20.0 Solid Kerry +10.3 Gore +17.5
Kentucky (8) 35.3 56.0 McCain +20.7 Solid Bush +19.9 Bush +15.1
Tennessee (11) 36.7 52.7 McCain +16.0 Solid Bush +14.3 Bush +3.9
Alabama (9) 34.7 54.7 McCain +20.0 Solid Bush +25.7 Bush +14.9

[Sensitivity]

28. I AGREE WITH YOU. I posted re cells in wrong place. But still have to watch for BE

at state level -- that is, any lead of less that 5 points can be discounted.

The BE has be seen to account for between 5 and 10 points depending on the circumstances.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[CTyankee]

30. But does BE count in polls where people are anonymous?

I thought BE was a phenomenom of EXIT polls, where the voter is asked directly in person who he voted for. BE kicks in because the voter is embarrassed to tell someone he didn't vote for Obama.

Or at least that's my take on it...

[Franks Wild Years]

32. I don't think the Bradley Effect is as pronounced as that....

Tom Bradley actually performed better, percentage wise, than late polls showing him leading 47 - 41. He actually won the 'on the night' election discounting absentee ballots, and he would have won overall very, very comfortably were it not for Proposition 15. The conservative vote surged, he didn't take a hit. And if you look at Obama's primary numbers, he won just as many states by much bigger margins as he did lose by a greater number than polls suggested. Even in New Hampshire the only real inaccuracy was in underestimating by a large margin the number of women who'd be out to vote for Clinton.

[Fluffdaddy]

36. The BE scares the shit out of me. That's the only reason I was a HRC supporter

I wake up in cold sweats worrying about the bradley effect. I fear 75% of the "undecided" voter is going to vote white........ahhhh I mean McCain.

[Franks Wild Years]

37. Seriously...

...don't shit yourself about the Bradley Effect. His predicted share of the vote didn't drop in '82 (it went *up* from the last poll which showed him leading) and were it not for Proposition 15 (which I'm sure you know would have banned the sale and possesion of new handguns in California) being on the ballot and ramping up the conservative turn-out he'd have won very easily. I've read a lot about that contest and I'm really not so sure it was a legitimate racial hot-potato.

[Fluffdaddy]

38. I really hope you are right. I will not survive another 4 years of gop rule

[redsoxrudy]

22. Fisa effect?

Is it me or did Obama's lead drop from the 5-8 point range to even-3 points almost right after his idiotic fisa vote? Now before you blast me I am not "attacking him", in fact I have spent all week volunteering for the campaign helping set up our local field office. However I think some of his moving to the center strategy may have bit him in the ass a little.

[Median Democrat]

25. Yup, FISA Really Has Folks In Alabama and Kentucky All Worked Up

I am sure that folks are milling about saying, "hey, I can't believe that Obama voted in favor of a bill supporting immunity for the telecoms,"

Personally, I think the majority of people rely on much more basic issues in making their presidential decision, and I can't see a true liberal voting for McCain over Obama.

[Fluffdaddy]

35. Wake me in October when polls means something