Why The GOP Is Seriously Screwed if Obama Wins

[kpete]

Why The GOP Is Seriously Screwed if Obama Wins
by thereisnospoon
Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 06:30:41 AM PDT

....................

.......... But make no mistake: the red-state/blue-state division so loved and exploited by Republicans starts--and often ends--with race.


If Obama wins, Republicans are screwed in more ways than they can possibly imagine. Or then again, perhaps they can--and they're petrified to the core. If so, we should expect them to pull out all the stops to create the ugliest election we've seen in our lifetimes.
...............

In come Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton--a black man and a woman vying fiercely for the Presidency and making history in the process. Obama triumphs. And looming on the GOP's horizon is its worst nightmare: the possibility that a majority of Americans might vote for an African-American for President.. And not just vote for one, but get used to one. Americans might become accustomed to the idea of an African-American family living in the White House, and being its public face to the world. That in the process, Americans might actually make leaps and bounds forward on the issue of race and thereby remove the most effective wedge in the Republican toolbox for decades.

...................

And that is why this election terrifies the GOP. In just one election cycle, an entire agenda and electoral strategy spanning over three decades could be dashed on the rocks, with no credible replacement. Milton Friedman's privatization agenda would be dead in the water, without hope of rescue barring military coup. Republicans in this situation are like a desperate, dangerous cornered animal.

more at:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/18/93041/0587/7/553243

[NightWatcher]

1. when Obama wins, he'll HAVE to fix the economy, else the repiggies will blame him

for the coming (wink) crisis even though we are in the early stages today. Obama will be saddled with the economy even though he has had nothing to do with it's failure to this date.

[n2doc]

5. Yep. I fear he will be "Carterized"

Everything bad about the mid 70's to mid 80's period was laid on Jimmy's doorstep. Everything good was credited to Ronnie. Obama is going to have his hands full. But at least we will have someone in office who thinks and doesn't go "by their gut".

It's like if Kerry had won in 04. Katrina would still have happened, and he would have been tarred and feathered with any Government screwups, but I'll bet a lot more people would be alive today.

[Liberal Gramma]

8. I think this is the GOP plan

They know they're going to lose, that's why they are sacrificing McCain. They are hoping that the country is so screwed up that Obama's first term won't be able to turn it around, and then in 2012 they'll run their preferred candidate to "fix" the Democratic-led government's problems. The fly in the ointment, for the R's, is that Obama might be able to make progress in restoring the country to its pre-Bush status WITH OUR HELP. That might ring in a Democratic majority for a generation or more. It's well worth whatever we put into it: time, money, sweat, blood, and tears.

[On the Road]

12. I'm Generally Not Much for Behind-the-Scenes Conspiricy Ideas Like This

but in this case, it makes an awful lot of sense.

[n2doc]

18. Doesn't take a conspiracy

Just a bunch of like minded morons who always see Democrats as the source of all problems.

[starroute]

19. Not a conspiracy -- just a bunch of people who think alike

The GOP is in the uncomfortable position of not actually representing the best interests of a majority of Americans, so they've had to get very, very good at winning elections despite that fact.

They don't look around them and think, "What would be best for the country?" Instead, they think, "How can we turn this to our advantage." Or, "How can we make this inconvenient obstacle go away."

Right now, having screwed up as royally as they have, you've got to know they must be thinking furiously about what to do next.

That said, I'm not convinced they really want Obama to fail and leave them with the problem of fixing things in 2012 -- since, after all, they won't know how to fix them then any more than they do now. Someone was suggesting on a thread the other day that the real GOP strategy is always to pillage the economy, then let the Democrats get it back on an even keel, then pillage it again. Lather, rinse, repeat.

If that's true, they'd be more likely to allow Obama to put some economic fixes in place (as happened with Clinton) -- and even give him eight years if it takes that long -- while sabotaging him in every other area, heading off any genuine reforms, and attempting to create a new perception of the Democrats as corrupt and self-serving.

[uponit7771]

14. Also, even if WE (I agree it'll take "we" type effort) fix things the GOP will make it look like...

...hell broke loose like they did under Clinton

[GreenPartyVoter]

30. I considered this, but I think in the end they need to maintain power in order to keep

a lid on their scandals, and so that they can keep on brewing up new scandals.

[uponit7771]

13. The parrallels are SCARY!! Bernanke is Bush's homeboy, I don't see him playin nice under Obama

[CanonRay]

2. Key Words: Barring Military Coup

I don't think it's "off the table"

[Benhurst]

6. Or our third stolen presidential election in a row.

[World Citizen]

3. reactionary militant groups

will be able to justify their "mud people taking over" theories. cringe! Look for their fury to be fed and supported by the banking cabal and their actions to be justified as patriotic. The next generation of "Contras." This is NOT going to be easy. Do NOT get comfortable.

[adoraz]

4. I agree with the article, but with 1 major factor....

Obama has to be a GREAT President.

If he is anything less than great, he will be ridiculed possibly even more than Bush.

[grantcart]

7. Actually it is much worse than this for the Republicans

After their landslide loss to Johnson the party was fractured but atleast Goldwater gave them an integrating theme - simple smaller government going back to better times.

Reagan was able to build that into the central ideology of the party and along with Nixon's 'southern strategy' get about 40% of the country on board and split the rest.

The legacy of George Bush is that he has splintered and destroyed this legacy. What can be bigger than launching a huge unnecessary war? What can make people realize that life isn't so simple that we don't want a stronger federal response than Katrina and the housing meltdown?

So after McCain loses who is the ideological core of the party? Romney - well the evangelicals will not accept him because of his Mormon religion. Huckster?

And what will happen to the real inheritors of the original Goldwater vision for the party- the Ron Paul crowd? Why stay in the Republican Party when the Libertarians think your brilliant and the Republicans think that your nuts?

The party will fall back on the most organized group - the religious far right who will energize on social issues that are increasingly seen as farther and farther out of the mainstream. They won't mind because they will have control of the message and they won't judge themselves on electoral success but ideological purity.

The moderates in the party will give up and join a much larger and more inclusive Democratic Party.


This is the real and final legacy of George Bush. Decades from now the Republicans will curse his name and the Democrats will see him as the fellow who finally broke apart the coalition that Reagan built.

[uponit7771]

15. Throw in Richardson as VP, take Texas and +1 what you said x 2 IMHO for 4 generations of ...

...Americans.

Romney isn't any more trusted than McSame by right wingers.

[Xolodno]

21. I semi agree...

Bush broke virtually every rule in the Reagan handbook. Particularly on foreign policy, he (Reagan) didn't send U.S troops en masse into a nation that was willing to exterminate themselves, so long as they killed americans....he sent weapons to those in the opposition, and when he did use military might...it was a surgical strike like that in Libya or some place they could quickly overwhelm and easily win like Grenada. And of course, he listened to the advice of other world leaders when they told him, Gorbachev was someone you could actually negotiate with. Reagan also had the smarts to realize not all his ideas were good, for example, privatizing the National Parks. When stiff opposition came up, he dropped it. He also realized, when he wanted one his policies implemented, he had to give in to the Democrats on one of their policies they wanted, a win win situation. Like him or hate him, he knew what to do and what not to do.

The problem with Bush and his Neo-Conservative allies is, they believed their ideas was some sort of holy mantra and any objection was heresy that had to be stamped out. The ONLY reason they exalt Reagan is not because they liked his ideals (which ironically they are actually in opposition on a number)....but only because he was popular and the only popular Republican President in a long time, so naturally they will cling to it all the while doing something he wouldn't do.


I remember after Reagan left office and Bush Sr. became president, a number of people thought the Democratic Party was in its death throws, so much so, you might say Ross Perot thought it was the time to form a new party to replace the soon to be "defunct" Democratic Party. Well, the Democratic Party did some soul searching and got back in touch with the people it had dis-enfranchised, refreshed its ideals and started listening to the people more carefully again....and tossed out those who were essentially pushing their idealogical beliefs over what the people wanted. It didn't happen overnight...but it did happen and the Democratic Party is anew and stronger for it.

The same will probably happen to the Republican Party. Its outspoken neo-con section evangelical nut wings, will be in denial for a long while, but slowly and surely one by one of them will be tossed out of their authoritative positions. Little by little the Republican ideology will be refined and addressed to the peoples needs and preferences. And then one day, a future Democratic candidate will lose.

When that happens ironically will be up to the Democrats. When too many start resting on the laurels of their popular predecessors or some get too cocky in the idea that the Republican Party is dead (like the Republicans thought the Democratic Party was)and form a "new" party that gives the election to the Republican Party. None of what I said is new...I've read here and there where people on this forum thought the current leadership of the Democratic Party is not truly representing them and perhaps a new party is needed. And of course, a number of statements thinking that the Republican Party will die. I've also read some who think the Democratic Party's policy is so pure that it should not be challenged. These are the seeds that grew into huge weeds that are choking down the Republicans...will it do the same with the Democratic Party? Time will tell obviously.

[unblock]

9. oh, please. racism and bigotry will survive an obama presidency

i agree that it would be a major milestone and should improve race relations on the whole.

but make not mistake, obama will carry a lot of weight on his shoulders. if his presidency has 99 successes and ONE failure, future black politicians will forever be challenged by that one failure. and blacks across the country will be held responsible for anything obama does that anyone else decides they don't like.

oh, and by the way, i'm quite certain that there will be people plotting to assassinate him from day one.


racism and bigotry take a LONG, LONG time to go away. obama's presidency will be a major help in this regard, but much more time is needed. in the meanwhile, republicans will find a way to exploit it.

[uponit7771]

16. But using it as POLITICAL wedge will be hard after Obama IMHO, Obama has killed the Southern Strateg

...to the degree were it's non effective or shameful to use.

Bush 2 is the last person to use Southern Strategy type tactics to an effective rate IMHO.

[unblock]

20. i wish, i wish.

shrub made fairly overt and obvious use of the nastiest of republican slime-ball tactics, but they've been there since nixon, it's just that shrub did away with the ambiguous, wink-wink approach and took a "we can get away with murder" attitude.

i suspect that the ONLY change will be that the republicans will return to publicly disavowing the nastiness, but will continue doing it in a way that they can officially distance themselves from.

[Eric J in MN]

10. The right-wing noise machine will on him like it was on Bill Clinton.

Listeners to right-wing radio and viewers of Fox News won't get comfortable with Obama as president, if he wins.

[Xolodno]

22. I agree...

Because their jobs may eventually disappear if Obama proves to be very popular. Their ratings will drop, sponsors will leave and then, their shows will get retired. Their not going to go down without kicking and screaming.

I'm of the opinion of course that Obama will win in a landslide and a lot of Republicans will be voting Democratic.

[Cha]

11. The fascists are and will pull out all the stops and their

Propaganda Media Machine is right there with them. But, some things are stronger fuckin' evil.

[applegrove]

17. So true. Thanks for posting.

[tishaLA]

23. The more subversive idea is that the south will rise again

but that it will be the overwhelming support of African Americans who, in voting in record numbers, will make the south rise for Obama. It would almost be a southern strategy in reverse.

[depakid]

24. Interesting take- but it leaves out one important problem

chances are that a lot of unpleasantries will be visited on the American people over the next 4 years- and with their short memories- much of this will be associated and blamed on the administration in currently power.

[Prophet 451]

25. Not necessarily

Depends how good Obama is at shifting the blame to where it should be. Even if the Rethugs steal the election again and instantly hammer the conomy, they'll still blame the Dems (see the "Clinton Recession").

[depakid]

26. That's the 10 trillion dollar question...

Trouble is, a good share of the blame DOES reside with Democrats, who enabled and often voted for the very policies that are about to cause everyone immeasurable grief.

As the Chinese saying goes: it'll be interesting times.

[liberalla]

27. "we should expect them to pull out all the stops..."

"...we should expect them to pull out all the stops to create the ugliest election we've seen in our lifetimes."

That's what I'm expecting.

[AllentownJake]

28. Now only if we could get a Gay President or Vice President

with his/her partner and children to succeed Barack Obama in 8 years that would be the death nail to their fucking wedge issues.

[Prophet 451]

29. Barney Frank for VP?

I'd adore that ticket! Obama has never been as progressive as I'd like but Barney is.