Newsweek Poll Large sampling ERRORS

[Gnister]

No wonder why Obama only lead McCain by 3 % in the last Newsweek Poll. Look at the structure of the sample of the Poll:

Age Structure:
AGE
18-39........16,95%
40-59........38,52%
60%..........44,53%


Hmmm, wonder which candidate a sample like that would favor......

[thereismore]

1. shoddy work, stupidity, or ? nt

[leftynyc]

2. The only thing that makes any kind

of sense here (and not really) is that this is the percentage breakdown of likely voters based on history. But in a year such as this, history is no guide.

[Gnister]

5. Here's the Age demographic of the votes the election 2004

National voters Demographic in the presidental election 2004 according to CNN:
18-29.....17%
30-44.....29%
45-59.....30%
60+.......24%

http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html?click

[Freddie Stubbs]

3. What would the correct sample be?

:shrug:

[Gnister]

6. 2004 Demographic of national voters

National voters Demographic in the presidental election 2004 according to CNN:
18-29.....17%
30-44.....29%
45-59.....30%
60+.......24%

http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html?click

[book_worm]

4. So they are saying that only 16% of respondents were between the age of 18-39?

they would be a much higher percentage of total turnout than that.

[Gnister]

12. ...

[TexasObserver]

7. Newsweek's recent poll means one thing: Don't trust Newsweek's polling.

45% over age 60!!

39% 40-59 years old!!

17% under age 40!!

That looks a sample for selling adult diapers or denture cream, not a weighed poll of voters.

[ravishane]

8. let them have their lame polls

The voter turnout amongst 18-39 people will be unprecedented this November.

That Obama is still ahead, given this sample, is pretty telling.

[Gnister]

9. But it's important that the young people turn out to vote!!!

[ravishane]

11. yeah it is important

I am on a college campus, and trust me, the turnout will be ridiculous. I am Purdue University which is a conservative campus with all sorts of right-wing maniacs around. Things are vastly different here now than they were in 2000. People were turning out for Bush in somewhat comparable amounts to Kerry. November will NOT be the same.

[Gnister]

10. Which shows the importance of young people

And to get the attention of the 60+ to understand that McCain only will send their children and grand children out to wars....

[uponit7771]

13. AHH come ON NewsWeak!! This one's obvious!!!

[uponit7771]

14. You know, the good thing about the 40 - 50 oversample is McSame is STILL losing

[chapel hill dem]

15. Ignorant question here. I thought pollsters normalized the raw results

to reflect the actual demographics.

Or have I completely missed a big point?

TIA