Obama leads McCain by 5 in latest Missouri poll.

[Drunken Irishman]

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/politics/story/84EC6E3C5EAE4FF586257484000FDDED?OpenDocument

[PresidentObama]

1. Interesting. Dead heat in MO!! GOOD!!

Turn my state BLUE.

Jay Nixon, our candidate for Governor, is strong. We've got some strong statewide candidates.

So let's hope Obama can help turn this state blue!!

[ccharles000]

2. Lovely.

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. Thank you. Everyone's flipping out about the national polls, when really it's

the state to state polls, and the EV map that truly count. Everyone should just calm down until after Labor Day. The media has to keep us on the edge of our seats so we keep tuning in. They love a horserace.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. National polls are more significant than state polls in a general election

There's a natural relationship. In fact, they serve to denounce and invalidate each other, on occasion.

For example, today on this forum there are threads with a national poll asserting Obama and McCain are tied nationally at 43-43, and this poll with Obama leading McCain by 5 points in Missouri.

LOL. There is no way the two relationships can co-exist. You might as well say a horse ran the Kentucky Derby in 1:57 flat but lost by 10 lengths. I guess that could be printed, and plenty of dunces would look at it and accept it, but it can't happen in a real world. Missouri is not 5 points more Democratic leaning, or Obama leaning, than the nation itself. In fact, the state slants many points more red than the nation itself.

As long as Obama maintains a lead in national poll averaging, we're fine. Averaging is very accurate these days, and a national lead will spill over to the proper states.

If Obama loses the national edge, we're in trouble regardless of state polls.

It's opposite of primaries, where state polling is more relevant.

[demgrrrll]

4. That is great. I met with someone today to talk about going door

to door. I told her that we can register as many people in Missouri as we like but we have to get the polls in order. When I worked in 2000 they closed a poll "for lunch". In 2004 there were
broken machines and people could not wait because they had to go to work. She is going to get on this because St louis put Obama over the top in Missouri and I know how it has been at the polls in Democratic strongholds in St. Louis over the past 8 years.