Rasmussen daily GE graph for 7/12/08 - Obama 43, McCain 43 (M up 1)

[DavidDvorkin]

With leaners, Obama 47, McCain 46 (M up 1)














These Rasmussen graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html


Gallup: http://www.gallup.com

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Once again, the more Obama tries to move to the middle, the more ground he loses.

But don't listen to me; I'm just being negative. :eyes:

[skooooo]

3. It'll take more than one poll to convince me of that.

Let's see where he is 2 weeks from now.

[John Q. Citizen]

7. Obama made comments yesterday. He said he's "a progressive." Looks like he's aware

of the problem.


This is the 3rd Rassmusan showing slippage.

News week shows slippage.

Yeah, I know. It will take more than 4 polls and comments by Obama to convince you...

[skooooo]

12. That's right.

I'm sure if it is true, you'll be gleeful about it.

[John Q. Citizen]

27. I thought Obama was doing really well before some of his supporters claimed he was

moving to the right as a brilliant political ploy.

As an Obama supporter, I thought that sounded like a political disaster.

I'm hoping people can learn something that will be helpful both in this campaign as well as into the future.

I don't expect regular people to take responsibility for bad political judgment that apparently hurts our candidate. I just hope they learn something so they aren't fooled again.

I also believe Obama is, at heart, a progressive, just like he says. And I believe he is at his best when he stands with progressives for the right reasons.

When he wonders, it hurts him. I prefer he not be hurt.

[JimGinPA]

4. Yeah,That Must Be It...

It couldn't have anything to do with the makeup of the poll's respondents or the sample size, it must be just because of your negative opinion of him.

[highplainsdem]

10. Rasmussen avoids the oversampling errors of the last two Newsweek polls; they tend to be consistent,

showing gradual changes. This was their article last month about their polling

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/why_polls_sometimes_show_different_results

This could still be a statistical fluke and Rasmussen might again be showing Obama with a slight lead by tomorrow. We'll see. But I do believe some of his recent statements and actions have cost him support from his base without winning over independents and conservatives.

[JimGinPA]

18. I'm Sure That You Do...

On the other hand, I think Obama is going to win in a landslide.

[DavidDvorkin]

21. That remains my hope.

[dempartisan23]

11. oil drilling and speaking spanish

those 2 issues are hurting bad. i warned that obama should have been first to support offshore drilling and beat mccain on that issue. now even some dems like durbin may support more drilling. obama should have supported more drilling and not caved on FISA. this issue will hurt even worse if more democrats start supporting more drilling.

his comment on every american needing to learn spanish even struck me the wrong way. obama needs to concentrate on the economy, economy, economy.

[ErinBerin84]

13. ugh, I would be so pissed if he had supported offshore drilling.

I was disappointed with FISA, but not as personally upset with Obama as many others were...but I would draw the line with fucking offshore drilling. Even if its "popular", it needs to be exposed for its bullshittedness. Its up to Dems to do that. And its not like he said exactly that "every American needs to learn how to speak Spanish". And he has been focusing on the economy, its not his fault that the RW likes to purposely distort things.
I wonder if the press free for all on Iraq faux "flip flop" really hurt him as well...McCain has switched on so many issues, I wonder if Democrats should have been more agressive about pushing that storyline with McCain from the get go.

[dempartisan23]

15. war unpopular, economy tanking, and yet

the best we can do is a tie? this has to be worrisome. mccain should be behind by 15 right now at least.

[ErinBerin84]

16. of course he "should be", ideally....I just disagreed with your specific points.

[dempartisan23]

29. variety is the spice of life

hehe

[Tarheel_Dem]

37. The problem is Democrats don't dominate the airwaves. He who owns

the media, controls the debate. I'm sure Democrats have been fighting the offshore drilling just as hard as the right has been pushing it, but again, Dems don't own the media.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

2. Shit ! What the HELL is going on? There really hasn't been

anything much in the news.

[creeksneakers2]

8. Maybe McCain outspending Obama on ads 3 to 1

Also, the flip flop thing, as much as it is mostly BS, seems to have had an effect. Looking over the shift on other polls, it appears that McCain took a couple points from Obama.

[John Q. Citizen]

9. Obama made remarks yesterday that he's "a progressive." It looks to me

like he's slipped with his base and knows it.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. Obama is going to need a superstar vp - who's the biggest superstar? GORE

[highplainsdem]

6. Not in this election. Obama needs Hillary Clinton, more than ever.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. NOPE. He needs a non-self-serving individual

[highplainsdem]

20. Clinton is no more self-serving than any other politician who ran for president--including Gore, who

is also one of my heroes.

Much as I admire Gore, he cannot unite the party as VP the way Clinton can. Any choice for VP other than Hillary Clinton is a very poor choice that greatly lessens our chances of winning in November. I want our party united. I don't want McCain to have any chance of winning.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. me 2 - I want the same thing. She has caused a difficult

situation. You add her to bring back some dems who might go to McPain. But
she adds nothing to the needed ability to attract indys and mod repukes. By
her staying in too long - she created this rift among us. So she would be
basically solving the problem she herself created.

I think, in the long run, our rift will lessen on its own before Nov. We
can get much more value out of adding someone who will broaden our base.

Just my 2 cents.

[paulk]

22. he needs someone who can get him votes

that's the bottom line.

ed 4 sp

[thoughtcrime1984]

14. So, 46% of voters are mouth-breathing dumbasses? GOT IT.

[Colobo]

19. Let's relax. He'll beat McCain.

[durrrty libby]

24. This is not surprising at all

[JTFrog]

36. NEITHER WAS YOUR PIZZA!!!!! n/t

[carpe diem]

25. the nonstop beating he has taken for the

last 3-4 weeks from EVERY corner has obviously take its toll...the right wing and the supposed mainstream media is expected, but the relentless trashing he has gotten from what little there is of a left wing media, which is basically the lefty blogosphere, probably was not anticipated and of course if fed and fueled the RW and MSM efforts...so, it has been a perfect storm for almost a month of destroy the dem with eager participation from a lot of democrats...if it keeps up like this, by the time of the convention, the best hope is that he'll be able to bounce back from what may be a 5-10 pt deficit...hopefully, he will be able to hang tough thru the end of this month and in August will be agressively hitting on the many, many McCain gaffes that have been brushed aside by McCains 'bbq buddies' in the press...

[Zynx]

26. Actually with the way tracking polls work, this is a good thing.

The reason is that he had a terrible day on Thursday and did not slip further, meaning he had a decent day Friday. Expect the Sunday release to show him back in the lead by 2-3 points.

[DavidDvorkin]

28. Yep. We saw such patterns during the primary in this poll.

[salonghorn70]

30. You've Got to Look at the BIg Picture

You can't get up or down with one poll.

I'm not sure that Obama has figured a way to make the issue of the economy his issue. JFK did that by saying "we have to get this country moving again." That left the message that not only was it time for a generational change in leadership but also a time to get a weak economy growing again. This is the issue that people care about.

In 1980 and 1988 the country wanted change. But in 1980 Carter led up until the last few days of the campaign. After the final debate, rightly or wrongly, the country decided that Reagan represented acceptable change and the break to Reagan was dramatic over the last weekend before the election. In 1988 the country wanted change so much that Dukakis had a double digit lead after the convention. Again, rightly or wrongly, the country came to view Dukakis as a very weak candidate and broke for Bush.

Elections are like tides that come in and out. The debates will be the deciding factor. The country needs to see that Obama is "acceptable change."

[Drunken Irishman]

31. Everyone calm down.

Tracking polls do this, we saw it in the primaries. I bet you by mid-week, Obama will be up 3-4 points and everything will be fine again. Look, Obama lost a lot of support from Thursday to Friday, meaning his Thursday numbers had to be really bad, but the fact he didn't lose any support on Friday shows he probably had a better day then. Expect an even better one today and if they release a poll tomorrow, Obama will be back up 1-2 points. If not, then he'll be up 2-3 by Monday.

[NattPang]

32. That's what happens when we give the media fodder

to hit our nominee over the head
for 21 full straight days.
If we don't understand that the media
is already working overtime
to undermind our candidate,
then we will get the change that we deserve,
and his name will not be Barack Obama.

[Beacool]

33. Obama never got a large bump after Hillary dropped out.

His average has been between 4% to 7% in the past month, the punditry had predicted an initial bump of 10% that didn't materialize. Even though this year the race is the Democrats to lose, it will still be quite close. I don't know if it was smart of Obama to tack to the center and disappoint so many of those who voted for him in the primary. The thing that hurt him the most was his FISA vote. Blog after blog has comments from irate supporters who felt betrayed by his vote. Obama can't afford to get cocky and take his base for granted. Anybody who's been in politics long enough knows that things can change on a dime.

[phrigndumass]

34. Take all the daily tracking polls together, and it looks like this:

It's all about the trend lines.

Before the primaries ended, Obama's lead in the national daily tracking polls ranged between -0.5 and +2.5 percentage points.

After the primaries ended, Obama's lead in the national daily tracking polls ranged between +2.0 and +4.7 percentage points.

Now, Obama's lead in the national daily tracking polls range between +3.5 and +6.9 percentage points.



K/R for DavidD! :hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

35. That's a nifty chart

[27inCali]

38. the people with a clue

are watching the statewide polls -you know, electoral college an all.

really wonder why people ever bother to worry over 2-3 point shifts in national polls with a margin of error around 3% unless they have an agenda to push (hell we all do in one way or another).

it just gives the negative assholes one more stupid thing to bitch about and annoy the hell out the rest of us -que bitter Hillary supports to say this downward blip reveals the ultimte truth that we all need to bow and grovel on our knees for queen Hillary to save us as VP. Gag me. Nothing against her, she's doing her part now, but I wish she had more sway with her followers and could get them to cut the childish crap.

but look at the state by state polls and you suddenly realize, McCain is in deep shit.

you don't think that both Bush and McCain caving into Obama's longheld foreign policy positions isn't going to give him a bump? how about the big overseas trip?

how about Gates and JCS backing Obama's position. McCain trying pathetically to outdo Obama re: Afghanistan with the extra brigade of troops?

I'm really sick of hearing from the negative nellies on this shit. Really tired.