What will Shrub's convention bounce be?

[Worthless Teen]

None? 2 pts? 4 pts? I can't see him winning over that many "undecided" voters.

[iwantmycountryback]

1. Not anything significant

5 if he's extremely lucky.

[Jim Sagle]

2. According to our official media, it will be a 50-point bump resulting in a

99% approval rating. "Spontaneous" committees will spring up all over America to advocate a monarchy with w as king.

You read it here first.

[Hippo_Tron]

7. FAUX News, we decide you agree

I love our media.

:eyes:

[unblock]

3. bounced out on his butt

ah, one can dream....

[blondeatlast]

4. If we can keep the SBVL/Bush/Cheney connection circulating

he might get 5 points.

If he answers Kerry's FEC challenge, -5 points or more.

If Edwards keeps questioning his manhood, -10 points.

[jjmalonejr]

5. There will be dozens of different polls...

...leading to dozens of different conclusions.

Was there a bounce? Was there not a bounce? How big was the bounce? Was it a negative bounce?

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

The RNC won't change the game much. Once it's over, the REAL battle will begin.

[phaseolus]

6. There will be only one poll showing a 6 point bounce.

About 12 others will show absolutely no significant increase > 1-2% or so, or a decrease.

Guess which one of these polls will get significant press...

:mad:

[CaTeacher]

9. Historically,

the incumbent gets a bounce that is approximately 1/3 the bounce that the challenger gets (the challenger traditionally gets a bigger bounce because it is the first time people have gotten to know him).

Kerry's bounce was around 6 points (the average of polls released after the convention). So--based on historical precedent, Bush should get a bounce of about 2 points.

I think he probably will get a 1-2 point bounce (which will fade away over a week or two).

[PROGRESSIVE1]

8. Every poll will show a tight race but the Gallup Poll will.....

show Bushie with a "Commanding" 3 point lead.

[justgamma]

10. I predict that he'll get

a huge (according to the pundits) 2 pt bounce.