Somethings rotten in California

[Lenape85]

http://www.electoral-vote.com

The most recent polls show only a 3 point lead for Kerry.

This is very worrisome.

[wtmusic]

1. Bad news

Hard to believe. Better get my ass out on those phone banks.

[RobertSeattle]

2. Don't worry about it

"Outlier" - and on 11/2 we are goint to out the liar.

[stranger_with_candy]

3. I saw that too

not sure i totally buy it though... but definitely scary.

And welcome to DU!!

[Domitan]

4. A quote from the website manager

A very strange Survey USA poll puts Bush within 3% of Kerry in California, 49% to 46%. I don't believe that for a second. Remember that polls are always reported with a margin of error (MoE). For state polls, it is nearly always 3.5% to 4%, so we don't report it. What this means is that if you repeat the poll over and over, 95% of the time the difference between the true (unknown) mean and the measured mean will be no more than the MoE. A consequence of this is that 5% of the time, the measured mean will be off by more than the MoE. I don't know if this is the case here, but the data are very suspect. There is no reason to think Survey USA is cheating here. This may just be a statistical outlier.

Moral of story: look at the bigger picture and don't sweat every single little detail.

[Trajan]

25. Hear YE, Hear YE .....

Let it be known once and for all ....

Survey USA was the polling organization that had Dan Lungren in a dead heat just before the Davis/Lungren gubernatorial race .....

Amazingly: Davis washed the floors with Lungren .... Fancy that ...

Survey USA is BS ....

[sleipnir]

5. The GOP's wet dream this election has been to put California into play.

That has been their goal all along. Force the Dems to spend in California, a consistent Dem pick-up, that would drain the war chest to have to run ads in such a populous and large area.

I do believe that California is a lot closer than we want to believe. It really is the 900 pound gorilla in the corner for the Dems this year.

The state elected Arnold, why should we be surprised when the state is no longer solid blue? I don't think it will go to Bush, but I do believe the Dems are going to have to put some cash into California to shore it up.

Many site the recent Census reports that had more people moving into California from traditional Red states. In the past, most of Cali's new citizens where from the Northeast, looking to escape the horrific winters. This could explain the shift towards to the GOP that is happening in California right now.

[Danger Duck]

8. Why are you surprised

about Arnold being elected? Makes sense to me. Red Heat kicked ass.

[Cleita]

14. Red Heat???

Explain. There is no logical reason Arnold is Governor, so therefore one has to look at the illogical ones. So, what does one come up with? A big cheat going on IMHO and we haven't uncovered it yet. It will surface unexpectedly when Assnold least expects it. I wonder who the disgruntled enabler is going to be to spill the beans?

[Gyre]

17. "red heat" was a flip answer.

IMO, the real reason was that Gray Davis was: 1)the one at the helm when California got screwed by Bush's buddy Ken Lay and the other power companies, 2)he was as exciting and inspiring as dried paint, 3) Ahnold implied he'd pull strings to get California reimbursed for it's rape. (He tried and the chimp told him "no comprende".)

I'm not excited about Ahnold as my governor but word has it that he's not going to run again. Election's 2 years off. Repugs got nobody who can win, Dems got plenty of good candidates, though there may not be much California left after Ahnold gives it all away to the Indian tribes for some short-term casino $.

Gyre

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. If California's In Play Let's Focus On NFL Football This Fall...

A few points....


1) I'd like to see a citation for this census. Most of the information I have seen indicates that most newcomers to California are immigrants not red staters...

2) Arnold is not your father's Republican... He's pro choice, pro reasonable gun control, pro gay rights... I'd trade him in a minute for my governor-Jeb Bush

3) Your argument rests on a false premise, the premise being that a credible polling trend indicates California is in play. The Survey USA Poll has more Reps than Dems in their sample 40% - 37% when the Dems have a huge advantage in registration in the state... Also, the Survey USA poll has Bush receiving 28% of the Cali African American vote while national polls show him getting less than 10%...


As Hillary Clinton says we all need to take a deep breath here....

[marlakay]

6. everywhere I go I see Kerry signs & bumper stickers

I am not worried, I even know repubs in this state voting for kerry, i think their polls suck big time. I talk to people all the time both in the bay area where I live and in the central valley modesto where we have relatives and its very conservative. People here are sick of bush so I don't believe it.

[Democat]

7. Kerry is ahead by 16% in one poll, the other is an anomaly

Two polls came out at almost the same time, one showed Kerry up by 16%, which is in line with almost all other California polls. Why worry about the single strange poll and not focus on the ones with Kerry up?

You said "recent polls" - have you seen more than one recent poll with Bush close in California?

[seabeyond]

10. wwwooooosh

thank you. now this post feels the best, lol lol

[necso]

9. Like they say,

the fish rots from its head.

Even though we are seeing like zero ads here, it is too early to be worried about the state.

There were worries in 2000 also, and this turned out not to be a problem, but some 527 stuff would be good.

[Bluebear]

11. Good, maybe Bush will waste a lot of money in Colliefornyah

[gulfcoastliberal]

26. Love that pic, plastic

Looks like Malkins good side to me.

[Zynx]

12. That's a bogus poll. Kerry leads by 90% among Dems and among Indies

by 7% which would translate into a double digit lead if they were weighted correctly. The issue is that they overweighted Republicans, who are seriously outnumbered.

[fujiyama]

13. DOn't bother with

that electoral vote site. It blindly posts the newest poll, gives no info or link to the poll or its internals, and gives no info on the polling firm.

If you want the latest polls, go to www.dalythoughts.com He is a Bush supporter but his analysis is right and he hasn't deluded himself into thinking CA is in play. He still lists it as a "strong advantage for Kerry" meaning that there is little chance Bush can take the state.

He also has a list of all polls of the state (and links as well). Most of those listed for CA have Kerry up by around 10 points.

The state isn't in play. Bush isn't going to waste money there because he'd be a fool to. He has to spend money in VA, NC, and probably CO now. If he wants states Gore won, he'd go after IA and WI which were extremely close. He doesn't have the luxury to spend money on ridiculous longshots like CA.

[Baja Margie]

15. California

will go to Kerry by from between 10 and 16 points. I believe Kerry is only making one stop in Santa Monica on his cross country tour. Naturally, my alma mater, San Diego will go GOP as usual. My mom wrote a letter to Arnold and said to him "...shame on you, Arnold, you better not go out and campaign for Bush. What would Maria say?"

And that's from MOM !!! Go, granny, go !!!


Oh, here's a little tidbit, coming up to cross the Border, I had to stop and pay the toll, and the guy saw my bumper stickers and said,"Ah, si, Kerry es us buen hombre, no me gusta Bush." I took off my Kerry button and handed it to him, he polished it off on his shirt and put it on and smiled. "Viva Kerry", he said, and waved me through the toll booth. :toast:

[NightOwwl]

16. The good news: California will not go to Bush, not by a long shot.

The bad news: I'll never have a chance to see Kerry or Edwards because they don't need to campaign here. :cry:

[Piperay]

19. That's right and

I also feel like :cry: cause I won't see Kerry/Edwards just like I never got to see Clinton or Gore they never had to come here either cause the repukes never have a chance in hell of carrying CA. :bounce:

[ibegurpard]

18. Is this the same poll people have been stressing about

for the past day or so? It's crap. It's completely out of line with all other polls.

[bushwakker]

21. Every 4 years there's a GOP "Cali in play" boomlet

I remember when Bruce Hershenson was supposed to win the state for Dole. ZZZZZZ......

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Was He The Guy With The Predilection For Titty Bars? (nt)

[bushwakker]

24. Yes a real RW moralist...

actually quite articulate. He was supposed to fire up the GOP base enuf to help them carry the state at the top of the ticket.

[michigandem2]

23. not buying into all this polling stuff

sure some are real good for Kerry and some aren't...we just have to keep fighting...this is all that is telling me!