Oregon, SurveyUSA Poll, June 23: Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 45%

[Hope And Change]

More...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6d876854-13d5-4f70-b17d-9ea29d0bb4d8

[Hoof Hearted]

1. In Oregon? I would expect to see a wider spread there.

[Clovis Sangrail]

2. statistically TIED

it's within the margin of error

[Clovis Sangrail]

4. I'm wondering

if the 'Obama is inevitable' is part of the GOP strategy.

A decrease in turn out favors McCain

[eeyore]

3. No way this is correct...

I have not seen a single McCain sign, sticker, poster, button or anything here. Very hard to believe. McCain may win some backwater towns, but Obama is going to destroy anywhere that resembles a city.

[kay1864]

8. Dude, you live in Portland

Even I know that eastern OR trends red.

[eeyore]

9. That's what I said in my post...

Anywhere resembling a city will go for Obama big. Portland, Salem, Eugene, Bend, Ashland, Hood River, and very possibly Pendleton. Also much of the coastal population. Eastern Oregon is basically Idaho, so no go there.

However, Oregon has a very strong Libertarian streak that this poll does not account for. There are many conservatives here who will not vote for McCain. Hell, I think a lot of them might just write in Ron Paul, not to mention those who will vote for the actual Libertarian ticket.

McCain will never win Oregon.

[kay1864]

10. You said "No way this is correct"

And your proof was that there were no McCain signs in Portland.

Sorry, but a poll holds more water than that. Obama may well win Oregon in November (and I hope he does), but the current poll is still "correct", since it has a much broader sampling than you do.

[Arugula Latte]

18. No. It will not be this close.

Multnomah County (Portland) can basically outvote the rest of the state. Then, you throw in Eugene and pockets along the coast, and it won't be a contest. No fucking way McCain wins Oregon this year. There is no chance. Zero.

[kay1864]

19. I certainly hope you're right

However, as for Multnomah County "outvoting the rest of
the state", well, that's not so clear:

   2004 General Election 

County        Kerry     Bush
Multnomah   259,585   98,439
All others  683,578  768,392
TOTAL	    943,163  866,831

http://www.oregonvotes.org/nov22004/g04abstract.html

[CreekDog]

21. you posted those numbers as if they prove you are right --they don't

his point is borne out by those numbers:

Kerry's margin in Multonomah County was large enough to cancel out his deficit in all the others.

Same goes for the Bay Area for California.

[kay1864]

24. I see your point

I interpreted the post above as "Multnomah has more votes than the rest of Oregon", not "Multnomah has more Dem vs GOP votes than the rest of Oregon"



Either way, those totals are remarkably close to the poll spread above: 51% Kerry, 47% Bush (4 point spread), vs the 3-point spread in the poll.

Oregon at this point is not a done deal, at least not according to the poll above (which is one of only two polls done since Jun 3)





(correction to your post: you should have said "her point is borne out by those numbers" :P)

[CreekDog]

25. also, one word that may be a factor in Oregon: Nader

:hi:

[kay1864]

26. One smiley in response to that factor:

:scared:

[CreekDog]

22. please don't harp on the correctness of one poll

while failing to mention a lot of other recent polls.

you are suggesting a failure of reasoning on the other guy's part while you are in fact doing the same thing with a poll result that is a bit different than many others.

you might wanna watch out for that.

[kay1864]

23. Do you know what a "non sequitur" is? You might wanna watch out for that.

I'm comparing the poll (which is the topic of this thread) to a poster's viewing of signs in Portland--not to other polls*.

No "failure of reasoning" in that at all.



Edit to add:

*Of which there has been ONE other since June 3, btw--not "a lot" as you assert. Any polls prior to June 3 are WAY less relevant (and worthy of comparison) than those since then.

As I said, however, my comparison was of THIS poll to lack of McCain signs in Portland. In that comparison, the poll wins, no contest.

[Hawaii Hiker]

13. Obama will probably win every urban area in the entire country

I looked on surveyusa.com & even though McBush leads in Kentucky, Obama leads by 12% in Louisville...

"Obama leads by 12 in greater Louisville; McCain leads in the rest of the state"..

This gives a general idea, but if Obama leads by 12% in an urban area in which still is a very red state (KY), imagine what he'll do in urban areas in OH, PA, FL, VA, etc. the more traditional swing states....

[book_worm]

5. According to Survey USA huge gender gap. Women favor Obama by more than 60%

and men favor InSane by more than 60%. Portland favors Obama while rest of state goes for InSane.

[PM7nj]

6. SUSA is very weird. How does this happen?

They have it very close in blue states like Minnesota and Oregon but have Obama up huge in Ohio. :wtf:

[sandnsea]

7. They said that in 2004 too

It wasn't even close. I don't know where they poll to get these numbers. It's all Obama, everywhere I go.

[book_worm]

11. Actually it was fairly close in Oregon in '04 Kerry over Bush by 4--52/48

[sandnsea]

27. Wisconsin - 49.7 - 49.3

That's close.

[thewiseguy]

12. They polled more republicans than democrats

Are there more republicans than democrats in Oregon?

[AmyDeLune]

14. If you leave the big cities, yes...*shiver*

October 2004, we made a family outing to the country to get pumpkins. In Portland, Kerry/Edwards signs everywhere, once we hit the rural areas though, it was Bush/Cheney signs. Truly scary.

[thewiseguy]

15. how many do live in rural areas?

[AmyDeLune]

16. The bulk of the population lives in the big cities-

Portland is the largest city in the state (very, very, blue) but I don't have census numbers on hand for the rural areas. It's more spread out, but you could skew a poll red by staying out of the big cities and sticking to the rural areas.

I'll see this October when we go pumpkin hunting if the political winds have shifted...

[PretzelWarrior]

31. nope. Obama will win Oregon by 10 points.

that is my prediction.

[kay1864]

17. No, actually they didn't....

Rep 226
Dem 228
Ind 85

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6d876854-13d5-4f70-b17d-9ea29d0bb4d8

Side note: Portland isn't *completely* blue:

Region: Portland
McCain 146
Obama 180
Undecided 24

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

20. Ho ho

I would be willing to stake my meager wages on the idea that Obama tops 10% in Oregon in November. Everything that was supposed to give him a leg-up in WA and OR is being crushed by the need to rally his base.

[PretzelWarrior]

29. WTF are you talking about, Aquaman?

you're so full of $hit I'm going to guess your eyes are brown. Hillary does well in Oregon due to strong support of women (quite a community of activist lesbian women in PDX and the valley who would trend toward Hillary). And still she got STOMPED by Obama.

Oregon was close between Gore and Bush in 2000 but not even close between Kerry and Bush in 2004.

Everyone who believes Obama and McCain are really statistically tied is smoking something.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

37. Holy syntax, Batman

HA, I fucking worded that atrociously. Obama will beat McCain in Oregon by 10%, McCain's edge that might have given him a leg up in the PacNW is being laid to waste by his compromises with his base.

[PretzelWarrior]

28. Let me tell you folks. there is NO WAY this is f'ing true

I am serious about this. Something is seriously flawed with that poll.

P.S. I live in Beaverton just outside of Portland.

[RichardRay]

30. Compare to RCP at 46.7%(O) to 40.3%(M)

or 538.com puts it even higher.

Any single poll is pretty questionable at this distance from the election. I think the aggregated values presented by RCP and 538 are probably more useful.

[redsoxrudy]

32. SUSA didn't weigh the party affiliations

SUSA does not use a fluid sample of party affiliation. So their polls do not reflect the heavy shift from R to D in the public. They are an accurate polling outfit but their numbers have tended to short Obama by about 5 points.

[ZinZen]

33. Guess the hubby and I

are heading to volunteer for Obama in Oregon. DRATS! My husband never thought Obama would win, and since we live in blue state California he promised to go an volunteer in a swing state should Obama win the nomination.

[Tillseptember]

34. Things looking good

We are ahead in NM too.

[RNdaSilva]

35. I would like to believe that...

Richardson would help win New Mexico.

Obama will win in California, Oregon and Washington...who cares about the polls? It's the electoral votes that count. Have homes in S CA and S WA, travel through OR. Have friends and relatives in all three states, plus Hawaii. Obama country.

Now, a win in Arizona would be devastating for McCain...never say never.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

36. That's too close. This is shocking! Well...maybe not.

Oregon is has interesting demographics. My understanding is that places like Eugene and Portland are quite liberal. But Medford has a huge elderly population and there some military there, too. That could explain why it's close, but it's still surprising to me. I think Kerry barely won the state in 2004.