And the score today is Obama 27%, McCain 74%! Woo-hoo!

[kay1864]

And you're asking yourself :wtf:



The score above is the percent of "undecided" electoral votes needed by Obama vs McCain to win.

Per www.electoral-vote.com, Obama is winning 228 electoral votes, and McCain 156.

(don't fool yourself into believing the score is Obama 317 McCain 194. The "Barely Dem" and "Barely GOP" votes are really ties, within the poll margin of error--as the site explains here: "On the map, the states with a white center are certainly statistical ties". So there are actually 154 electoral votes currently at play, not 27)

Of those 154 votes, Obama needs 27% to reach the magic number of 270 votes, and McSame needs 74%.

So, I say, WOO-HOO!

[Dawgs]

1. Disagree.

There is no way he loses Oregon, and the chances of Obama losing Michigan(which Kerry won) is also very very small.

[kay1864]

2. In your opinion, of course

The polls, OTOH, aren't as certain of an Obama win in OR and MI.

[hokies4ever]

5. Michigan could very likely be a dead heat leading into November

First, if McCain chooses Romney he puts Michigan in play even more since Romney's father was a popular governor of Michigan. Also, the Dem Party of Michigan is not having a great year. Their governor doesn't have great approval ratings. The Detroit mayor is embroiled in a sex scandal. There appears to be extra Obama-Hillary supporters animosity in Michigan as well judging by some of the crowd reactions during campaign events. Also, his energy policy might be great for America but it won't exactly win over the hearts and minds of the auto industry right now.

I think Obama realizes these things too and that's why he rolled out the Edwards and Gore endorsements in Michigan.

[kay1864]

7. Yup.

And based on the McCain BBQ a few weeks back, my money's on Romney as his VP. It'd be political suicide to pick Jindal or Crist.






Please God, let him pick Jindal or Crist :P

[hokies4ever]

8. I agree that McCain's best pick is Romney

but Jindal seems to have a lot of support among the conservative wing of the party, so it's almost a toss-up between them. Carly Fiorina could be a dark horse as well.

[kay1864]

9. That Hindu heathen as his VP?

"Mabel, fetch me mah smelling salts, quick!" :rofl:

[hokies4ever]

10. I agree he does seem a bit eccentric with his views

My favorite being the exorcism story of course. :rofl: However, that doesn't change the fact that he is viewed very positively by the conservative wing of the Republican Party which McCain is having trouble with right now.

[kay1864]

12. Views, schmiews, he's an INDIAN, can't you see that?

He'll wear one o' them turbans in the White House, and make us all do yoga, and pray to that lady with eight arms, and swear the oath of office on the Koran!

Why can't McCain pick a good Christian like the ones that founded our great nation?







:P

[ryanmuegge]

3. If McCain wins Florida (and he will) and Ohio, he's pretty much won the election.

Regardless of what this site says, I can hardly believe that Missouri and Ohio will go Democratic.

[kay1864]

4. Dude, that site doesn't "say" any such thing

It's only reporting the latest poll results. And those results are not that Missouri and Ohio will "go Democratic"--both states are currently ties.

McCain needs more than Florida and Ohio. Do the math.

[hokies4ever]

6. What are you going to trust? That poster's sole opinion or some election polls?

:rofl:

[ryanmuegge]

13. IDIOT, it says that MO and OH are BARELY LEANING DEMOCRATIC.

Therefore, the site is giving him Ohio and Missouri, which I think, JUDGING BY PAST REALITY, is too generous.

The election hasn't been conducted yet? No shit?!

The point is that, judging from past results, Florida, MO, and OH are probably not as close as the polls indicate. I wouldn't count on a lot of perennial red states turning blue for Obama (or any Democratic candidate).

Last I checked, also, states carry different weight in the electoral vote. Therefore, if McCain wins Florida and Ohio, it'll be a lot closer than the projected total on that site. If he wins these two states and maybe Michigan, he's right back in it. The point is that this is going to be a really fucking close election. A lot closer than those totals indicate, even if the polling data on which they are based are accurate for the moment. Kerry was destroying Bush at this time in 2004. Dukakis was destroying Bush, Sr. at this time in '88.

[kay1864]

14. Yes, I'm the idiot that knows what that site is, and what it isn't

:rofl:

(please educate yourself by reading the link in my OP, that explains that "Barely Democratic" is in fact a tie. Oh, and do the math too)

[ryanmuegge]

17. Those states are still included in the overall total for the candidate who is barely winning.

Take a couple of those states away (along with Ohio and Florida in McCain's favor) and it's extremely close.

Either way, I'm not going to convince you if you're foolish enough to think that this election isn't going to be close as hell. I don't think in reality that McCain needs 74% of the undecided votes to win. It's a much smaller margin than that if Ohio and Florida are given to him.

[kay1864]

18. Nope.

Those states are NOT included in the total in my OP. Because I understand what "tie" means.

Like I said, do the math.




"barely winning" :rofl:

[mikekohr]

11. McCain, - behind the eight ball-

RCP has Senator Obama up in Ohio http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ohio.html,

Up or close in Missouri http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mo/missouri_mccain_vs_obama-545.html,

Up in Virginia http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mo/missouri_mccain_vs_obama-545.html

Up in New Hampshire http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mo/missouri_mccain_vs_obama-545.html

Up in Colorado http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html

Up in Iowa http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_mccain_vs_obama-209.html#polls


If McCain loses ANY of these states he is in deep trouble. If McCain loses either VA, or Ohio, it is highly unlikely he can get to 270 electoral votes, even if he sweeps all the other battleground states.

Do not look past the significance of Claire McCaskel's Senate victory in Missouri. There will be huge turnouts in the Saint Louis precincts. Ohio suffered under the criminal era of Governor Bob Taft (R), and Representative Bob Ney (R) as well as a raft of other Republican criminal malfeasance. Ohio has turned a paler shade of blue.

mike kohr

[mikekohr]

15. RCP Electoral Map -no toss ups-

Obama 289 Electoral votes

McCain 249

And thats with MI going Republican. I believe MI will stay in the Democratic column. My call is Obama 306 electoral votes (52.3% pop. vote), McCain 232 electoral votes (46.7% pop. vote)



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

[kay1864]

16. I'm glad that RCP also presents the more realistic map

Obama 238, McCain 163, Toss Ups 137

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

And that they're focusing on electoral votes, not the ridiculous "nationwide polls" that the MSM love so much.

[mikekohr]

19. Five Big Questions, -and the key to victory in November-

Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Missouri,Indiana. *and in that order of importance*

Senator Obama MUST carry either MI or Ohio.
Senator McCain MUST carry OH, VA, IN, MO.


Barack has to bat .200 - McCain has to hit .800

One scenario is very likely, the other highly improbable, but not impossible.

mike kohr

[kay1864]

20. I'm just waiting until the first real debate

Waiting for McCain to make another gaffe in a debate on live television (and for Obama to calmly correct him).

Waiting for McCain to lose his famous temper on live television (and for Obama to look bemused).


Right now, I'm not too worried about Obama's chances.