Close? No: A Blowout? Yes

[Demeter]

http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/carpenter/102


THE FIFTH COLUMNIST by P.M. Carpenter



As John McCain begins to resemble Bob Dole in sight, sound and superannuation a bit more every day, his presidential prospects are beginning to look much the same, as well... Notwithstanding George W. Bush's best efforts at demoralizing and dismantling the conservative base, this, said the pundits, was bound to be another squeaker of a presidential election year, with virtually all the states retaining their familiar, partisan hues. Hence it would come down to two or three purple ones -- likely Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida -- just like last time. It's going to be dicey, they said.
Early statistical indicators, however, suggest anything but. In fact, they foreshadow a blowout.

Once Barack Obama's candidacy emerged uncontested within his own party, his polling against John McCain instantly adopted a certain and favorable disequilibrium that is appearing throughout the various polling organization's numbers. And in conformity, there is growing confidence...First there was the Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll, which revealed some rather startling insights into what the race looked like once Hillary Clinton was out -- presumably, taking some huge chunks of her coalition with her, principally, of course, women.

But that wasn't the case at all, with the poll finding that Obama's lead against McCain among women generically was a whopping 19 points (Gallup and Rasmussen allowing 13). And among Hispanics? -- that immensely important ethnic bloc that word had it from Hillary's camp only Hillary could carry for the Dems? Obama immediately scored a crushing advantage of 62 to McCain's 28...Even among white men, said the WSJ-NBC News poll, Obama's numerical disadvantage was a five-point improvement over John Kerry's 2004 showing and four better than Al Gore's in 2000.

Then, this week, came the Washington Post-ABC News poll. Although its statistical specifics in terms of gender and ethnicity are also favorable to Obama, its greatest encouragement for the Democrat lay in what some might find the most dispiriting stat: that he and McCain, that is, break even among independents...But actually, that's an enormous advantage for Obama. Look at it this way. Even if McCain's shrinking Republican base turns out for him -- which is questionable -- and Obama's much larger and expanding Democratic base also turns out, and the two only split the independent vote, then McCain loses, because he will have failed to sufficiently compensate for his own vanishing numbers.

Plus, reasonable expectations would dictate that by fall -- with, according to the Washington Post-ABC poll, 84 percent of the electorate saying their nation is on a disastrous track -- independents will begin to decisively break for Obama....

[opihimoimoi]

1. Independents are normally Reasonable, Logical, and Sane...they will follow their BRAINS

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

2. Brilliantly put! K&R! And that's why I rail against polls showing this race close...

It's NOT close!! The polls don't account for the many disadvantages that McSame and the Repugs have. Compare, for instance, the defection of Reps to Dems vs. Dems to Reps. When we lost the Reagan Dems, it was by a substantial amount and we weren't winning any Reps. Today, the reverse is true. So when these Talking Heads attempt to compare Obama to Dukakis, it's simply bullshit logic!! The factors in play, the political, social and economic conditions are much different now than they were then.

[Cha]

3. I want to be a BLOWOUT with the Dems winnning

in Congress and the Senate so there will be no question what this country wants.

And, the m$$m can eat shit.

[Super Soaker Sniper]

4. State by State

A blow out does not seem possible. There are too many Red States that will stay that way. They made up their mind on Obama already and it would be supremely foolish for Obama to even attempt to win them. His money would be better spent elswhere. Sadly most of the States that Bush won will stay red. Thankfully it is "most" not all of them that will stay red. It is the ones that will change from Red to Blue that are going to give Obama the victory and there won't be that many of them.

While it is always good to broaden your horizons, some people like their horizons rather narrow and nothing will make them change it. 51% gives us as much of a President as 66%. I'll take any win at all, even a narrow one, just PLEASE let this nightmare end.