6/20 Election Model - Obama Jumps to 352EV, Leads Newsweek 51-36

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: June 20
     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

Three new state polls show Obama and McCain virtually tied in FL, CO, and GA of all places.
A Newsweek poll just released shows Obama leading by a whopping 15 points, 51 – 36!
A new USA Today poll has him ahead by 50 – 44.

If the election was held today, Obama would win the electoral vote by 352 – 186.

Obama leads the aggregate state poll weighted average by 46.1 – 42.6%.
The State projection model indicates that he would win 52.9% of the 2-party vote.

Obama leads the national 5-poll unweighted average by 48.2 – 41.6%.
The National projection model indicates that he would win 54.3% of the 2-party vote.

The electoral vote is the average of a 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation.
Obama won all 5000 trials; therefore, there is a virtual 100% probability he will win the electoral vote.

The model executes five undecided voter scenarios.
In the most likely base case, 60% of undecided voters were allocated to Obama.
In the worst case, 50% were allocated; Obama has 51.7%, 320 EV and a 98.4% win probability.

These key battleground states are projected to flip to Obama: CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA, NC, NV, FL, GA (new)

But there’s a catch:

It’s called Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.

• The bad news is that 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted (70–80%).
  
• There will likely be vote-switching at the DREs and central tabulators.
  
• The Democrats need a very heavy voter turnout to overcome the fraud.

And Obama will probably need at least 54% of the True Vote to win.

The good news is:

Obama should get the 54% — at a minimum.

• It’s only June and the trend is in his favor.
• His poll numbers should rise as undecided voters make their decision.
  
• McCain supports the policies of the most unpopular president in history.

These graphs display polling and model projection trends:

•   Aggregate state poll trend
  
•   National 5-poll moving average projection
  
•   Battleground state polls
  
•   Electoral vote and win probability
  
•   Electoral vote and projected vote share trend
  
•   Undecided voter allocation and win probability
  
•   Battleground state win probability

Polling Data Sources
State Poll data:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

National Poll data:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Reviewing the 2004 Election Model

The final pre-election state polls matched the pre-election national polls.

Kerry led the final pre-election state poll weighted average by 47.7- 47.0%.
He also led the 18 final national polls () by 47.3 - 46.9%.

The final weighted average state model projection exactly matched the final 5-poll national average.
Kerry led the state model () with 51.8% of the 2-party vote and 337 electoral votes.
He led the national model final 5-poll average from 11/1 with an identical 51.8% share.
He led the final 18-poll national projection from 10/20 with 51.6%.

The 12:22am National Exit Poll (Voted 2000) indicated that Kerry won by 51.9% (2-party).
The respondents were randomly selected and the margin of error was 1.1%.

Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
It indicated that Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit polls by 51.9 (2-party).

Professional pollsters allocate undecided voters in every election.

• The majority are allocated to the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular.
  Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day.
  There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush monthly approval () and his poll numbers.
  
• The Gallup Poll allocated 90% of undecided voters to Kerry. Harris and Zogby: 67 – 80%.
  The Election Model final base case projection allocated 75% to Kerry.

The Election Calculator Model
The 2008 Election Calculator indicates Obama will win the True Vote in a 71-59m landslide (54–45%).

The 2004 True Vote was the basis for the calculation.
Kerry won the 2004 True Vote in a 67–57m landslide (53.2–45.4%).

2000 voter turnout in 2004 was total votes cast in 2000 less mortality times the turnout percentage.
In 2000, the Census reported 110.8m votes cast, but only 105.4m were recorded.
In 2004, the Census reported 125.7m votes cast, but only 122.3m were recorded.

The Calculator determines the True Vote based on the estimated shares of returning voters.

• The 12:22am National Exit Poll “How Voted” category is a reasonable best case estimate.
  
• Kerry won 57% of new voters and others who did not vote in 2000.
  He won 91% of returning Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters.
  He captured 64% of returning Nader voters. Bush had 17%.

2004 Pre-election and Exit Poll Confirmation
Final pre-election polls showed Kerry and Bush in a virtual tie.
The unweighted state average favored Bush, but Kerry led the aggregate weighted average.
The pre-election aggregate state polls closely matched the national () poll average.

A few naysayers maintain that polling analysis cannot prove that the 2004 election was stolen.
They claim that the Final National Exit Poll was correct and the unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote using impossible weightings.
After undecided voters were allocated, the pre-election polls matched the unadjusted exits.

Simple MATH proves the Final NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6m.

• The Final indicates that Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 2004 electorate (122.3m).
  But Bush only had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000.
  • Voter mortality tables show that approximately 2m Bush 2000 voters died prior to 2004.
    And about 2.5m Bush 2000 voters did not vote in 2004, assuming that 95% of 48.5m voted.
    Therefore, only about 46.0m Bush 2000 voters could possibly have returned to vote in 2004.
    But according to the Final NEP, which is always forced to match
    the (official) recorded vote count, 52.6m returned. That is a mathematical impossibility.
    
  • Bush needed 16 million new voters to achieve his 62m recorded vote.
    According to the 2004 Election Calculator, he had 57m of 125.7m, an 11m increase.
    Where did Bush find 16m new voters?
    
    Kerry won the final 5m recorded votes by 54.3 – 45.7%.
    These were late votes recorded a few days after the election.
    They consisted primarily of absentee and provisional ballots.
    
    Bush won the 2004 recorded vote by 62.0 - 59.0m (50.7- 48.3%) and had 286 EV.
    Of 3.4 million uncounted votes, approximately 2.6m were for Kerry - a net 1.8m margin.
    Bush’s 3.0m margin is thus reduced to 1.2m — and that’s before vote-switching.

To believe that Bush won, one must believe that the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
And also believe that the Final Exit Poll, although mathematically impossible, was accurate.

Some argue that exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote can't prove that fraud occurred.
But that's not a valid criticism. The question should be:

Do the Exit polls, in conjunction with the Pre-election and Approval polls, indicate that fraud was likely?

Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections 
Undecided allocation effect on projected vote share, EV and win probability

THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

 
 
6/20/2008
State
Aggregate
Poll
National
5-Poll
Average
State
2-party
Projection
National
2-party
Projection
   Monte Carlo Simulation
   Expected         Win
        EV               Prob

Obama
46.4               48.2               52.83              54.32              352              100.0

McCain
42.9               41.6               47.17              45.68              186                0.0



Undecided Voter Allocation %
 
 
BaseCase
Obama
50%               55%               60%               65%               70%

Trial Wins
4922              4993              4999              5000              5000


 

Projected Vote Share
Obama
51.7               52.3               52.8               53.4               54.0

McCain
48.3               47.7               47.2               46.6               46.0


 

Win Prob %
Obama
98.4               99.9              100.0              100.0             100.0

McCain
 1.6                 0.1                 0.0                 0.0                 0.0


 

Electoral Vote
Average
320                337                352                368                381

Median
321                338                353                369                383

Maximum
387                412                416                427                439

Minimum
201                255                267                304                312


 

95% Conf. Interval
Upper Limit
366                381                392                404                415

Lower Limit
275                293                311                331                347


 

States Won
 26                  28                  29                  31                  32

 

2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

State Model

 
 
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
 
Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to
 
Total

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
       
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
       
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
       
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
       
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
       
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
       
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
       
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
       
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
       
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
       
EV
 538 
       
9
3
10
6
55
       
9
7
3
3
27
       
15
4
4
21
11
       
7
6
8
9
4
       
10
12
17
10
6
       
11
3
5
5
4
       
15
5
31
15
3
       
20
7
7
21
4
       
8
3
11
34
5
       
3
13
11
5
10
3
       
Obama
 46.4 % 
       	
33
41
39
40
53

43
47
90
50
45

43
61
39
60
38

47
37
41
41
55

52
53
45
50
44

43
39
36
42
51

47
47
51
43
38

46
38
46
52
53

39
34
31
39
27

63
45
55
37
51
40
 
McCain
 42.9 % 
       
59
45
50
47
41

41
44
9
41
45

44
31
52
31
47

42
47
53
50
33

39
30
42
43
50

42
47
52
45
39

39
43
34
45
44

43
52
38
40
38

48
51
58
52
62

29
44
37
45
40
53
      
Diff
 3.5 %  
      
(26)
(4)
(11)
(7)
12 
 
2 
3 
81 
9 
0 
 
(1)
30 
(13)
29 
(9)
 
5 
(10)
(12)
(9)
22 
 
13 
23 
3 
7 
(6)
 
1 
(8)
(16)
(3)
12 
 
8 
4 
17 
(2)
(6)
 
3 
(14)
8 
12 
15 
 
(9)
(17)
(27)
(13)
(35)
 
34 
1 
18 
(8)
11 
(13)
       
BO EV
 317 
       




55

9
7
3
3



4

21


7



4

10
12
17
10


11



4

15
5
31



20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

 
    
 	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
         
Obama
 52.8 % 
       
37.8
49.4
45.6
47.8
56.6

52.6
52.4
90.6
55.4
51.0

50.8
65.8
44.4
65.4
47.0

53.6
46.6
44.6
46.4
62.2

57.4
63.2
52.8
54.2
47.6

52.0
47.4
43.2
49.8
57.0

55.4
53.0
60.0
50.2
48.8

52.6
44.0
55.6
56.8
58.4

46.8
43.0
37.6
44.4
33.6

67.8
51.6
59.8
47.8
56.4
44.2
 
Probability
 100.0 % 
       
0.0
38.2
1.4
13.6
100.0

90.3
88.5
100.0
99.7
69.1

65.5
100.0
0.3
100.0
6.7

96.4
4.5
0.3
3.6
100.0

100.0
100.0
91.9
98.2
11.5

84.1
9.7
0.0
46.0
100.0

99.7
93.3
100.0
54.0
27.4

90.3
0.1
99.7
100.0
100.0

5.5
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0

100.0
78.8
100.0
13.6
99.9
0.2
       
EV
 374 





55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4

21


7



4

10
12
17
10


11



4

15
5
31
15


20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

    
       
Obama
  9  
 






Obama



Obama

Obama





Obama











Obama






Obama

Obama


Obama












Obama




    

        

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
National Model

10-Poll
Last Poll
Sample
 
 
 
5-poll Moving Average
Projection Moving Average

Trend
                          
USA Today
Newsweek
FOX 
Rasmussen
Gallup

ABC/WP
COOK/RT
Zogby
NBC/WSJ
Hotline/FD
Date
        
6/19
6/18
6/18
6/18
6/17

6/15
6/15
6/14
6/09
6/08
Size
              
1310LV
896RV
900RV
3000 LV
2605 RV

--
880 RV
1113 LV
1000 RV
806 RV
Obama
        
50
51
45
48
47

49
44
47
47
44
McCain
        
44
36
41
45
42

45
40
42
41
42
Spread
        
6 
15 
4 
3 
5 

4 
4 
5 
6 
2 
Obama
        
48.2
48.0
46.6
47.0
46.8

46.2
45.0
46.0
46.2
46.2
McCain
        
41.6
41.8
42.6
42.8
42.0

42.0
41.0
42.2
42.2
42.8
Obama
        
54.3
54.1
53.1
53.1
53.5

53.3
53.4
53.1
53.2
52.8
McCain
        
45.7
45.9
46.9
46.9
46.5

46.7
46.6
46.9
46.8
47.2

 
 

 

THE 2004 ELECTION MODEL

Projection
EV
Vote%
Prob%

Kerry
337                51.80              99.90

Bush
201                48.20               0.10



Undecided Voter Allocation %

 
 
BaseCase
Kerry
60%               67%               75%               80%               87%

Trial Wins
4901              4972              4995              4997              4999


 

Projected 2-party %
Kerry
51.02             51.38             51.80             52.07             52.43

Bush
48.98             48.62             48.20             47.93             47.57


 

Win Prob %
Kerry
98.02             99.44             99.90             99.94             99.98

Bush
 1.98               0.56               0.10               0.06               0.02


 

Electoral Vote
Average
320                328                337                343                352

Median
322                329                338                345                353

Maximum
379                388                399                405                412

Minimum
211                237                223                243                254


 

95% Conf. Interval
Upper Limit
361                368                376                382                389

Lower Limit
278                288                298                305                315


 

National 18-Polls
Vote% 
50.73             51.15             51.63             51.92             52.34

Prob% 
97.55             99.90            100.00           100.00           100.00


 

States Won
 24                   25                   26                  26                  27

 
 
2004 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS
 
State Pre-Election polls, Projections, Exit polls and Recorded vote

 
 
 
 
Pre-Election Polls
(Pre Undecided Voter Alloc)
 
 
Projected
(After 75% UVA)
 
 
State Exit Poll
(Based on WPE)
 
 
Recorded Vote
( Official Vote Count )
 
 
SEP – Proj
 
 
SEP – Vote
 
 
Exit Poll
 
Projected
EV
 
SEP
EV
 
 
Proj – SEP
 
 
Proj – Vote
 
 
WPE   
State
Wtd Avg
   
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
   
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
   
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
   
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
   
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
   
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
   
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
   
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
   
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
   
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
  538  
    
9
3
10
6
55
   
9
7
3
3
27
   
15
4
4
21
11
   
7
6
8
9
4
   
10
12
17
10
6
   
11
3
5
5
4
   
15
5
31
15
3
   
20
7
7
21
4
   
8
3
11
34
5
   
3
13
11
5
10
3
Kerry
 47.7 % 
   
39
30
45
46
49
   
47
52
78
45
50
   
42
45
30
54
39
   
50
37
39
40
50
   
54
64
52
52
42
   
44
36
32
49
47
   
50
49
57
47
35
   
50
28
50
50
56
   
42
42
47
37
24
   
53
47
52
45
51
29
Bush
 47.0 % 
       
57
57
50
48
42
       
48
42
11
38
47
       
52
45
59
42
58
       
44
60
56
48
39
       
43
27
45
44
51
       
49
57
61
49
47
       
42
49
39
50
55
       
47
61
44
45
36
       
55
52
50
59
69
       
40
51
44
49
44
65
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 51.0 % 
     
41.3
39.0
48.0
49.8
55.0
     
50.0
55.8
85.5
57.0
51.5
     
45.8
51.8
37.5
56.3
40.5
     
53.8
38.5
42.0
48.3
57.5
     
55.5
70.0
53.5
54.3
46.5
     
48.5
40.5
36.5
49.8
50.8
     
55.3
49.8
59.3
48.5
41.8
     
51.5
35.5
53.8
53.0
61.3
     
43.5
45.8
48.5
39.3
28.5
     
57.5
47.8
54.3
48.8
54.0
32.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 51.8 % 
     
42.5
40.3
46.7
44.8
59.8
     
50.1
62.2
90.9
61.3
50.9
     
42.5
56.4
30.8
57.0
40.0
     
50.7
37.5
39.6
44.1
55.5
     
60.0
64.8
54.4
55.7
45.8
     
49.0
37.7
36.7
52.9
57.0
     
57.8
52.9
64.1
49.2
32.9
     
54.2
33.5
53.0
55.3
61.8
     
45.9
36.3
42.8
40.6
29.2
     
66.4
49.4
57.0
40.3
52.0
31.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 48.3 % 
     
36.8
35.5
44.4
44.5
54.3
     
47.0
54.3
89.2
53.3
47.1
     
41.4
54.0
30.3
54.8
39.3
     
49.2
36.6
39.7
42.2
53.6
     
55.9
61.9
51.2
51.1
40.2
     
46.1
38.6
32.7
47.9
50.2
     
52.9
49.0
58.4
43.6
35.5
     
48.7
34.4
51.3
50.9
59.4
     
40.9
38.4
42.5
38.2
26.0
     
58.9
45.5
52.8
43.2
49.7
29.1
Bush
 50.7 % 
     
62.5
61.1
54.9
54.3
44.4
     
51.7
43.9
9.3
45.8
52.1
     
58.0
45.3
68.4
44.5
59.9
     
49.9
62.0
59.6
56.7
44.6
     
42.9
36.8
47.8
47.6
59.0
     
53.3
59.1
65.9
50.5
48.9
     
46.2
49.8
40.1
56.0
62.9
     
50.8
65.6
47.2
48.4
38.7
     
58.0
59.9
56.8
61.1
71.5
     
38.8
53.7
45.6
56.1
49.3
68.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diff
  0.8 %  
      
1.2
1.3
(1.3)
(5.0)
4.8
      
0.1
6.4
5.4
4.3
(0.6)
      
(3.3)
4.6
(6.7)
0.8
(0.5)
      
(3.0)
(1.0)
(2.4)
(4.1)
(2.0)
      
4.5
(5.2)
0.9
1.5
(0.7)
      
0.5
(2.8)
0.2
3.2
6.3
      
2.5
3.2
4.8
0.7
(8.9)
      
2.7
(2.0)
(0.8)
2.3
0.5
      
2.4
(9.4)
(5.7)
1.4
0.7
      
8.9
1.7
2.8
(8.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
Diff
  3.6 %  
     
5.7
4.8
2.3
0.3
5.5
     
3.1
7.9
1.7
8.0
3.8
     
1.1
2.4
0.5
2.2
0.8
     
1.5
0.9
(0.0)
1.9
1.9
     
4.1
2.9
3.2
4.7
5.7
     
2.9
(0.9)
4.1
5.1
6.8
     
4.9
3.9
5.7
5.7
(2.6)
     
5.5
(1.0)
1.7
4.4
2.4
     
5.0
(2.1)
0.3
2.4
3.2
     
7.5
4.0
4.2
(2.9)
2.4
2.2 
WPE
  7.1 %  
      
11.3
9.6
4.6
0.5
10.9
      
6.1
15.7
3.4
15.9
7.6
      
2.2
4.7
1.0
4.4
1.5
      
3.0
1.7
(0.1)
3.8
3.8
      
8.1
5.8
6.3
9.3
11.3
      
5.8
(1.8)
8.1
10.1
13.6
      
9.7
7.8
11.4
11.3
(5.2)
      
10.9
(1.9)
1.8
8.8
4.7
      
10.0
(4.2)
0.5
4.8
6.4
      
15.0
7.9
8.4
(5.8)
4.7
4.3
Kerry
  331  
      
     
     
     
6
55
     
9
7
3
3
27
     
     
4
     
21
     
     
7
     
     
     
4
     
10
12
17
10
     
     
     
     
     
5
4
     
15
5
31
     
     
     
20
     
7
21
4
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
3
     
11
     
10
     
Kerry
  325  
    
    
    
    
    
55
    
9
7
3
3
27
    
    
4
    
21
    
    
7
    
    
    
4
    
10
12
17
10
    
    
    
    
    
5
4
    
15
5
31
    
    
    
20
    
7
21
4
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
3
    
11
    
10
    
 
< 2.0%
   21   
    
yes
yes
yes



yes



yes




yes
yes


yes






yes
yes
yes

yes

yes






yes




yes

yes




yes
yes


yes


yes
yes
> 2.0%
   33   
    
yes
yes
yes
yes


yes


yes
yes

yes

yes



yes

yes
yes
yes


yes
yes
yes
yes

yes

yes



yes


yes
yes

yes

yes
yes


yes
yes
yes

yes


yes

yes
yes
yes
> 6.0%
   25   
    
yes
yes


yes

yes
yes

yes
yes













yes

yes
yes
yes



yes
yes
yes

yes
yes
yes
yes


yes


yes


yes



yes

yes
yes
yes

 

The Election Model Final 18 National Pre-Election Polls (9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

   
 
Sample
Poll
 
Final Poll
 
75 % UVA Projected
 
5-Poll Moving Average
 
5-poll Moving Average, 2-party
   Election Model
   18 National Polls
    
    Harris
    Zogby
    Marist
    Econ
    TIPP
 
    CBS
    FOX
    Dem Cor
    Gallup
    NBC
 
    ABC
    ARG
    Pew
    Nwk
    ICR
 
    LAT
    Time
    AP
Date
Average
        
2-Nov
2-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
      
1-Nov
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
      
31-Oct
30-Oct
30-Oct
29-Oct
26-Oct
      
24-Oct
21-Oct
20-Oct
Size
 1720 
      
5508
1200
1166
2903
1284
      
1125
1400
1018
1866
1014
      
3511
1258
2408
1005
817
      
1698
803
976
Type
     
     
LV
LV
LV
RV
LV
 
RV
RV
LV
RV
LV
 
RV
LV
RV
RV
RV
 
RV
LV
LV
Kerry
 47.3 %
      
50
47
49
49
44
 
46
48
48
48
47
 
48
49
46
45
44
 
48
46
49
Bush
 46.9 %
      
47
48
48
45
45
 
47
45
47
46
48
 
47
48
45
48
46
 
47
51
46
 
Kerry
 50.90 %
      
51.5
50.0
50.5
52.8
51.5

50.5
52.5
51.0
51.8
50.0

51.0
50.5
52.0
49.5
50.8

51.0
47.5
52.0
Bush
 48.10 %
      
47.5
49.0
48.5
46.3
47.5

48.5
46.5
48.0
47.3
49.0

48.0
48.5
47.0
49.5
48.3

48.0
51.5
47.0
 
Kerry
 51.3 %
      
51.3
51.1
51.6
51.7
51.5

51.2
51.3
50.9
51.1
50.6

50.8
50.8
50.2
50.2
na
 
na
na
na
Bush
 47.8 %
      
47.8
48.0
47.5
47.4
47.6
 
47.9
47.8
48.2
48.0
48.4
 
48.3
48.3
48.9
48.9
na
 
na
na
na
 
Kerry
 51.8 % 
       
51.8
51.6
52.1
52.2
52.0

51.7
51.8
51.4
51.6
51.1

51.3
51.3
50.7
50.7
na
 
na
na
na
Bush
 48.2 % 
    
48.2
48.4
47.9
47.8
48.0
 
48.3
48.2
48.6
48.4
48.9
 
48.7
48.7
49.3
49.3
na
 
na
na
na
Diff
 3.6 % 
    
3.6
3.2
4.2
4.4
4.0

3.4
3.6
2.8
3.2
2.2

2.6
2.6
1.4
1.4
na
 
na
na
na

 

[BlooInBloo]

1. And Poblano has it at 334-204...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[tiptoe]

6. update - EV frequency chart

Obama Electoral Vote Frequency (5000 trials)

[napi21]

2. I don't want to see this happen so early! Allbeit I believe that will

be the final result, I don't want to see this so early in the GE. We all know there will be 527 attacks on Obama, but we don't know what they will be. Several things could happen. The 527 attacks could be so strong and wodely broadcast they will take hold. Barack's campaign will be extremely effective at slamming the 527's. The ads ill have just enough effect to allow McNuts to win.

I truethfully hope I'm wrong and shouldn't be worried, but I know over confidence will kill you every time!

[tiptoe]

3. 527 attacks isn't all there is to worry about. There's never reason for election overconfidence:

Florida elections were rigged for the last decade; I see no difference today...

caging, absentee ballots manufactured and lost, access to polls, registration lists, hacked DRE's, undervotes, butterfly ballots, hanging chads, crooked election supervisors, poll worker challenges, riots at election offices, crooked judges/courts, no meaningful investigations, manipulated primary dates...on and on

Obama better realize that a grass roots campaign, rallies, polls, and predictions are MEANINGLESS if there is no fair election. Only a few key states are needed to swing the electoral college while only a relatively few per cent of votes need to be altered in those key states.

Kerry and Gore "won". Neither occupied the White House.

-- Sancho, June 19, 2008

Linked references here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6383315&mesg_id=6383866

[napi21]

5. Every time I read something like this, I am stunned that WE, the

United States, have sent people all over the world to make sure there were FREE ELECTIONS, but we can't even do our own!!!!!!!!!!!!

[darkmaestro019]

4. This is why the electoral college needs to hit the door.

Along with daylight savings time. Two outdated models that now cause far more trouble than they do benefit (which in both cases I'd have to say is NONE currently)

[tiptoe]

7. not outdated:

Hand Counted Paper Ballots

[FogerRox]

8. Incredible html coding. I think FDR won by like 58%, LBJ won by 61%

Dems almost took the house back in 1930, and in 1932 grabbed majorities in both houses and the white house. In 1962 Dems had congress and the white house.

I think 1930 might be like 2006, and then will 2008 be like 1932 ? We need to throw big numbers of votes at them.