The Daily Widget – Thursday, June 18 – Obama 332-206

[phrigndumass]

What a change one day can bring! Early yesterday morning I was seeing the beginning of a possible downward cycle for Obama. Given the data at the time, that was accurate. But since yesterday, nine polls in eight states were released from five different polling agencies. Here’s a quick summary:

FL – Obama 47, McCain 43 – Quinnipiac 6/16 +/-2.6
OH – Obama 48, McCain 42 – Quinnipiac 6/16 +/-2.6
PA – Obama 52, McCain 40 – Quinnipiac 6/16 +/-2.5
ME – Obama 55, McCain 33 – Rasmussen 6/16 +/-4.5
WI – Obama 52, McCain 43 – Survey USA 6/16 +/- 4.3
VA – Obama 47, McCain 45 – Public Policy 6/16 +/-3.3
NH – Obama 51, McCain 39 – Am. Research 6/17 +/-4.0
FL – Obama 49, McCain 44 – Am. Research 6/17 +/-4.0
AK – Obama 41, McCain 45 – Rasmussen 6/16 +/-4.5

To avoid a downward cycle, I suggested yesterday at least one of three things would need to happen: 1) Obama’s probables would need to flatten out or increase; 2) Obama’s lead-in-potentials would need to expand; or 3) The overall strength of projection of all polls combined would need to increase. All three of these occurred yesterday with the new polls listed above.

And out of the blue (or should I say “into the blue”), two polls were released yesterday for Florida, putting Obama in the lead there in both polls. This is a switch in sides, and it increases our Wigand Electoral Average by a whopping five percentage points (10% of scale) in one day.








Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH


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TRACKING



^ Now whip it. Into shape. Shape it up. Get it straight. Go forward. Move ahead. Try to detect it. It's not too late. To whip it. Whip it good. :7



^ Thank you FLORIDA!



^ Our WEA Total has reached another all-time high for Obama again today, just above 640.



^ Both Intrade and Rasmussen Markets climb to their highest points yet for Obama today.


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^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction.
It is a map of the states which are currently
either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls


Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

.

[tekisui]

1. A Daily KNR!

[phrigndumass]

2. Thanks tek!

Good morning :hi:

[DeeDeeNY]

3. Unfortunately, we still have a huge problem --

http://youtube.com/watch?v=J36Jfkxd1vA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwWP-N1HqT0

[phrigndumass]

4. Vote theft is a problem yes, but ...

The most they've been able to steal so far is about 3,000,000 votes. Do you think they could steal 6,000,000 votes nationwide and have it not be noticed? It's possible, but they would need to be very careful.

I use 6 million because right now I have Obama projected to win 59.3 million votes to McCain's 53.9 million votes Obama is leading by 5.4 million votes, according to the polls.

:hi:

[DeeDeeNY]

11. I hope you're right

But if they can steal 3 million, then 6 million is possible too. And the pundits will attribute it to the "Bradley effect".

:shrug:

[phrigndumass]

19. Hell, 100 million stolen votes is possible

But there comes a point when it would be blatantly obvious to the general public as a whole, not just to us insiders. They had a hard enough time stealing 3 million, and Ohio elected a new Secretary of State because of it.

A five million vote lead is theft-proof, imo.

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good morning, phrigndumass!

OMG, you have to put a warning before that first tracking chart. Coffee on my keyboard. :D

[phrigndumass]

6. It's a good day for some Devo, lol

Hope the song won't be stuck in your head all day :rofl:

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. Off-to-work kick

:kick: Enjoy your day

[mod mom]

8. loving those numbers! rec'd!

[phrigndumass]

13. Hiya mod mom :)

Thanks! :hi:

[myrna minx]

9. A beautiful morning K&R.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

14. Question ...

Would it be too trashy if I dragged this out into the yard in the shade to grab a nap? :rofl:

[myrna minx]

20. Nah. You'd just be joining the pantheon of the divine.

Since grapes are not your forte, how about a a refreshing mint julep and a nap? :rofl:

[phrigndumass]

23. Wow, I've never joined a pantheon before :)

Is it like a cult? lol ...

Maybe if I place a couple potted plants near the sofa, it won't look like a beater on blocks in someone's yard. A nice swag and a few throw pillows would add a nice touch and a splash of color!

A refreshing mint julep would be quite enjoyable in my new "space" then :D

(I watch too much HGTV, lol)

[Symarip]

10. K & R

Math isn't just fun... It's the law!

[phrigndumass]

16. It's great when an apple falls on your head, too.

Brain injuries can create discoveries, lol

:hi:

[grantcart]

12. Very interesting - you have to expect that the McCain camp will have to do something

dramatic this week because this type of multi-state drift will absolutely kill his flagging fund raising.

[phrigndumass]

17. Look out, Michelle

They'll probably reach deep into the gutter, wouldn't be surprised. They can't gain an upper hand on any of the issues.

[thoughtcrime1984]

15. KnR!

I always enjoy reading your posts, phrign!

[phrigndumass]

18. Thanks Ofof!

:hi:

(edit: got your initials wrong, lol)

[RiverStone]

21. More great stats from such the reliable researcher

Thanks phrigndumass! :hi:

But don't 'they' say that most folks (minus us political junkies on DU) really don't start focusing on the GE until after Labor Day?

Do you happen to know if historically, pre-labor day polls are good predictors of a November election?

Even so, both pre and post primaries - your work on the numbers is very much appreciated.

[phrigndumass]

22. Ahh, but we're not predicting a November result ...

We're tracking how the game should be played to achieve a November win. That's the point of all these state polls ... If we're leading or trailing by 10% or greater in a specific state, we won't need to spend much time or money there. If it's closer than that in a state, we wage war there against McScrooge.

But given what we are seeing here, we're "projecting" a November win. :D

After Labor Day, the nationwide average of 10% to 12% Undecideds will wittle down to about 5%, and that will give us a clearer projection. You've seen those dashed projection lines on some graphs, right? Projection lines have a beginning and an end, and this is just the beginning of the projection line. As time goes by, we'll be able to plot the end of the projection line with more accuracy, but we need to have a starting point and this is it. We're two weeks into a six-month battle, so no rest for the weary.

Based on what we see here, what do you think our strategy should be?

Thanks for such a nice compliment, RiverStone! I love doing this, and I'm happy that other folks are as interested in it as I am.

:hi:

[grantcart]

24. evening kick

[grantcart]

25. Georgia down to a one point lead !!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!

As Barack Obama's campaign announced Thursday that it will launch television advertisements in Georgia and 17 other states Friday, a new poll shows the Democratic hopeful essentially tied with Republican John McCain in Georgia.

The poll from Atlanta-based Insider Advantage shows McCain's lead shrinking from 10 percentage points a month ago to a 44 percent to 43 percent split today, with Libertarian nominee Bob Barr, the former Republican congressman from Georgia, drawing 6 percent.



http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2008/06/19/mccain_obama_georgia.html


Insider Advantage - how reliable are they?

Do you have that ranking of pollsters - I don't know where it went.

[phrigndumass]

26. LOL! Terrific!

Barr is taking 6% there, lol!

Insider Advantage is reliable for Georgia, like Rocky Mountain Polls is reliable for the West. But this Georgia poll has a margin of error of +/-5%, which is extremely high. The official release says they polled only 408 likely voters.

I hope another agency polls Georgia soon, so we can see if this is an outlier or not.

:woohoo:

[grantcart]

27. You know what would be interesting is to check the ad buys of the candidates in the various

states.

If Obama is buying ads in Georgia it means that their internal polling is similar.

Do you know of any report on ad buys?

Check your inbox.

[phrigndumass]

28. According to Marc Ambinder (The Atlantic) on ad buys ...

Obama's first national ad buy is going to be aired in 18 states.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/06/obama_airs_first_general_elect.php

"The ad will air in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia, per the campaign."

:thumbsup:

[Demeter]

29. You've Got A Problem There, Pmass

The scale on that graph is going to have to be increased to


400!

[ORDem]

30. kNr!

:kick: